Time to Post My week 11 Card So Far (Minus 13 units)

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 0-0
week 2 0-0
week 3 9-4
week 4 6-5-1
week 5 12-8
week 6 16-11
week 7 5-11
week 8 10-16
week 9 14-15
Week 10 13-19
Total 85-89-1 down about 13 units. jesus.

Not much to say. Just not doing a good job. Only loss that felt completely ridiculous was the Oregon/USC total with 760 total yards it should have finished in mid-forties. Ridiculous end to the first half there.

Locked In

Notre Dame -6 1-0
Scarolina -3.5 1-1
SDSU -17 1-2
USF +1 (bad movement since I bet it) 1-3
UCF -16.5 1-4
Clemson -30.5 2-4
Boston College -2 2-5
UVA -16.5 2-6
TCU +1 2-7
Minnesota +7 3-7
FIU +10 3-8
Wake Forest -2.5 3-9
Charlotte -12 3-10
Ga Southern -1 3-11
Kent St 7.5 4-11
WMich -7 4-12
Utah State 4 5-12
Washington -9.5 -116 6-12
ULL -13 7-12
Iowa 8.5 8-12
S bama 7.5 9-12
Kent State/toledo over 61.5 10-12
Ball state/Wmich over 63 11-12
Miami oh/Ohio over 54.5 11-13
UCF/Tulsa over 70.5 11-14
Washington/OrST over 65 11-15
Texas tech/WVU under 60 12-15
Baylor/TCU under 51 12-16
UTSA/ODU over 42.5 13-16
Stanford/Col over 54.5 13-17
Wake Forest/VT over 65 13-18
LSU/Alabama over 65 14-18
illinois/MSU over 45 15-18
Iowa/Wisconsin over 38 16-18
app st/Scarolina over 52 16-19
nd/duke over 51.5 16-20
SJSU/Haw under 77 16-21
Sbama/tex st over 41 17-21
Terps 1h 28 17-22
Tosu/Terps 1h under 38 17-23
usc/azst under 55.5 17-24
Illinois 14.5 18-24
Ull/cc over 58 18-25
Tem/usf over 49 18-26
Ohio -3.5 2h 18-27
Ohio/MOH 2h over 25.5 19-27
 
Last edited:
Notre Dame -6
Scarolina -3.5
SDSU -17
USF +1 (bad movement since I bet it)
UCF -16.5
Clemson -30.5
Boston College -2
UVA -16.5
TCU +1
Minnesota +7
FIU +10
Wake Forest -2.5
Charlotte -12
Ga Southern -1
Kent St 7.5
WMich -7
Utah State 4
Washington -9.5 -116
ULL -13
Iowa 8.5
S bama 7.5
 
FIU...

I tend to think you probably know quite a bit about FAU. FIU has been a big disappointment to me. Not sure why exactly, but they have mostly stunk (and I have paid on a few occasions because of it). So you think the rivalry aspect has them play better or are there aspects worth fading on the FAU side?
 
I leaned Iowa having saw it last night. Since then my hang up is if Stanley can play well in one of these games.

Look forward to this being a great week for you and some good discussion on the games!
 
s--k said:
FIU...

I tend to think you probably know quite a bit about FAU. FIU has been a big disappointment to me. Not sure why exactly, but they have mostly stunk (and I have paid on a few occasions because of it). So you think the rivalry aspect has them play better or are there aspects worth fading on the FAU side?
Click to expand...

FAU has been out-resulting their box scores
Even yardage vs WKU despite winning the turnover battle 4-0, and won by 11 - Skewed FAU
Dominated ODU - Normal Result
Lost a close one to Marshall where they lost the box - Normal Result
Outgained by almost a hundred by MTSU and won by 15 - Skewed FAU
Dominated Charlote - Result Normal
Evenish box score with Ball St despite plus 2 turnovers - won by 10 - Skewed FAU
Outgained by 260 while being blown out by UCF - Result Normal
blown out by OSU 28-0 first quarter - Normal Result

FIU has 5 wins and vs Miami and at Marshall to close the year, so this seems their most likely win outcome to get bowl eligible.
 
s--k said:
I leaned Iowa having saw it last night. Since then my hang up is if Stanley can play well in one of these games.

Look forward to this being a great week for you and some good discussion on the games!
Click to expand...

The Wisconsin playing great and blowing them out is there somewhere. But Iowa would seem to match up well, at least defensively. I thought the same thing with MSU though.
 
RetroVK said:
The Wisconsin playing great and blowing them out is there somewhere. But Iowa would seem to match up well, at least defensively. I thought the same thing with MSU though.
Click to expand...

I think we'd have to say that Iowa > Michigan State, which the spread reflects that...MSU was double digit dog, Iowa isn't.

Defensively, I give Iowa a strong chance of competing, hanging and potentially succeeding. Can Iowa OL, QB and general skill players do enough to get it done? That I am not sure of. 13-17 points out of them would seem like a ceiling unless something atypical to their season occurs. What do you think we could expect there?
 
Totals:

Kent State/toledo over 61.5
Ball state/Wmich over 63
Miami oh/Ohio over 54.5
UCF/Tulsa over 70.5
Washington/OrST over 65
Texas tech/WVU under 60
Baylor/TCU under 51
UTSA/ODU over 42.5
Stanford/Col over 54.5
Wake Forest/VT over 65
LSU/Alabama over 65
illinois/MSU over 45
Iowa/Wisconsin over 38
app st/Scarolina over 52
nd/duke over 51.5
SJSU/Haw under 77

More to come. I only had so much available to bet
 
s--k said:
I think we'd have to say that Iowa > Michigan State, which the spread reflects that...MSU was double digit dog, Iowa isn't.

Defensively, I give Iowa a strong chance of competing, hanging and potentially succeeding. Can Iowa OL, QB and general skill players do enough to get it done? That I am not sure of. 13-17 points out of them would seem like a ceiling unless something atypical to their season occurs. What do you think we could expect there?
Click to expand...

17 ish
 
The good movers:

Notre Dame from -6 to -8 .. through a key number
kent st from 7.5 to 7 (though there were some sevens already out there when i got the 7.5 and might still be at a few places)
Scarolina -3.5 to -5 some spots now. nice skip over the 4
UCF -16.5 to -17 (though there were some 17's already out there when i got the 16.5 so it was more decent shopping than a move. Interesting lack of movement though)
Clemson -30.5 to -32.5 ... if you like NCST i suggest waiting .. i really don't see anyone being that compelled to bet ncsu. So you will get your best possible number for the dog at kickoff i think.



The bad movers:
wmich from -7 to -6.5 uh oh
USF 1 to 2 (I don't care, they are the better team and at home, though they may not exploit the Temple secondary weakness the way some other teams can)
TCU from 1 to 2.5. I get it. i probably should have waited here. oh well.

Stagnant
Washington -9.5 juiced 16
BC -2 -- some -2.5's out there. No Willie T and a road game after losing to their rival. Ok.... why isn't this moving?
UVA -16.5
Minny 7 (some 6.5 out there but primarily 7)
FIU 10
Wake -2.5

A few others but i have to work
 
BC -2 -- some -2.5's out there. No Willie T and a road game after losing to their rival. Ok.... why isn't this moving?
Click to expand...

I like BC too.

Maybe no movement due to skepticism that this BC D can or will play well? Or that no Willie is an addition by subtraction thing? Personally, I do worry about the BC D thing a little, but I'm not really worried that just because the weight of a bad head coach is gone that now FSU will be that much better.

Depending on line source, WF was -2.5 home vs FSU (some sources closed FSU favorite). WF > BC. Maybe FSU has gotten worse over the last few weeks, but I just don't think you can make BC a very large favorite of FSU based on comparative numbers. BC was +34.5 at Clemson, FSU was +27.5, BC was +3.5 home vs NCSt, FSU was -6.5 home vs NCSt, so the implication is that FSU is already better than BC and if they weren't a dumpster fire should be favored at BC. But because they are a dumpster fire BC favored.

Scores and odds open showed -1 Sunday at 6pm so from there it's gone up.
 
Odell has been named interim coach for the remainder of the year. If you'll recall, he stepped into the roll when Jimbo left the program. The team stepped up to win its final game (make-up) and got bowl eligible. The team will support Odell, but I don't have a feel for how they handled the Willie-T firing. For all accounts Willie, maybe his finest quality, was a players coach. Ultimately, it was his downfall. The team continued Willie's trademark discipline issue by leading the NCAA in penalties. Can this be cleaned up, yes. Will it? Your guess is as good as mine. For all the talent on this team, their performance and discipline, or lack of, has kept the Noles from winning. I will be on the Noles, as I don't think BC can exploit the defensive backfield weaknesses. FSU ML for me.
 
Wake Forest seems to be in a good spot with VT blowing the ND game. VT cant pass and that's WFs weakness on D.....Newman should be able to move the ball....if ya like the O65 ya gotta like WF big/bold dontcha?
 
Decent chance Ohio gets 27 or more on their own. Pace is terrible but any significant lead by other club should help pick that up. And there is always the chance for OT
 
fumble deep, fumble to set up moh score, missed fg, bad coaching by solich, guy randomly running oob instead of getting a first down .... nightmare half
 
Biggest concern is both teams running play clock to under 5 seconds. These offenses seem frozen and in slow motion. Ugly game offensively. Also, Oline protection is shit for Ohio.
 
Earlier this year I was marveling that Ohio was running up tempo, because Frank Solich has been an unimaginative coach for the last 30 years. Tonight Solich's team returned to its boring self. Flair passes to the running backs were negating the pressure Miami was putting on Roark. No flair passes were thrown on the final drive.
 
RetroVK said:
BC -2 -- some -2.5's out there. No Willie T and a road game after losing to their rival. Ok.... why isn't this moving?
Click to expand...
I'm a little hesitant because Haggins produced a nice win/cover in the bowl last time he was interim HC. Also, the matchup is poor for BC.
 
Why do you think USF is better? I sort of agree but can't get the taste of their performances to start the year out of my head. Temple is certainly on the FADE train and has been awful on the road.
 
add
Sbama/tex st over 41
Terps 1h 28
Tosu/Terps 1h under 38
usc/azst under 55.5
Illinois 14.5
 
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