Dr atomic , here is my thoughts on that game :
The match up : Illinois vs. Missouri at St louis
Last Year: Did not play
Missouri and how they have changed
Qb- Chase daniel returns for Missouri and will continue to run their spread offense. He should have atleast as much success as last year and perhaps more. After a few years in the system, Daniel has an excellent grasp of the mizz offense and knows what to do with the ball (including tucking and running if need be). He is rated 8 by phil steele , 11 by lindy and 7 by athlon at the qb position this year. His back up is inexperienced but adequate. Missouri has clearly improved here with another year of experience and a supporting cast that heavily compliments daniel’s skills.
Rb- With all the attention paid to Daniel and the spread throwing game last year, junior tony temple flew under the radar rushing for over a thousand yards and averaging 5.5 a carry. The tigers return their top 5 rushers from last year and are especially deep at this position in 2007. When discussing the running backs of Missouri you also have to consider the dual threat ability of the qb. He was the teams second leading rusher and knows when to throw and when to run. The running backs and Daniel will be rushing behind an experienced line listed below.
Ol- The spread offense may seem like a finesse offense , and it generally is. But the tigers have anything but an overtly finesse offensive line. They average 308 pounds across the front and their size , coupled with the horizontal stretching of defenses that spread offense employ, will create some rather large holes this year for mizzou backs to run through. The tigers were 46<SUP>th</SUP> in the nation last year rushing the ball , averaging 4.3 a carry and I see them turning that into a 4.8 yards per carry this year. In addition to proving formidable run blockers in the tigers scheme, they have also proven to be excellent in pass protection. They only gave up 19 total sacks last year but even more impressive is that they only gave up 1 sack for every 24.5 pass attempts. When the pass protection does break down , Daniel is far from a statue and should be able to avoid some would be tacklers and is experienced enough to throw the ball away safely. The line returns 4 starters this year, all of whom are upperclassmen. The only new face is a third year sophomore that is one of the better lineman recruits that the tigers have had in recent memory. I can only see improvement from this unit and their combination of size , quickness and experience make them one of my top 25 ol in the nation and a difficult match up for most DL.
WR- For me, TE is generally the least important position on the field as far as handicapping is concerned but Missouri is the exception and I therefore am including them in the WR section. The tigers return their number one receiver in William Franklin from last year. He was injured the final few games of the year or he was likely to have had over 1k receiving yards. While they lose the second wideout in Ekwereku, he is replaced by the more talented Tommy saunders. In addition to these two fine receivers, Daniel has two of the top 5 TE in the country to throw to in Coffman and rucker. Don’t be surprised to see them both on the field at the same time either. Mizz does run a lot of 3 wide and when the two tight ends arent both on the field they do lack some depth here. Still … lots and lots of potential targets for Daniel to throw to on a team that ranked 10<SUP>th</SUP> in passing a year ago. WOW !! What an offense !
Special teams- Solid and adequate with a 41 yard average type punter and a kicker that looked good down the stretch last year. Not phenomenal but not a weakness either.
DL-Missouri uses a 4-3 defensive alignment and I have to think that this unit has taken a step back this year. They lost a couple folks to the nfl and while they return the interior of the line they will be relying on somewhat unproven juco talent to make up the difference. They finished last year giving up 135 yards a game which wasn’t as bad as it looks. They only gave up 3.8 a carry and had to face the number 8th , 17th and 28<SUP>th</SUP> ranked rushing offenses last year. They will be strongest up the middle and weakest on the ends. They return 3 players to this front that have started at least 5 games. Certainly this unit is no powerhouse but it is adequate. I’ll say a slight downgrade from last year.
Lb- Two huge losses in Harrington and Bacon, lets get that out of the way. So the question is can they be replaced? Word out of the spring camp was that Michael Keck was the best defensive player on the team. He is a true freshman with nfl potential. He will likely split time with Alexander who may finally live up to his billing now that he is not as banged up. Christopher and Weatherspoon fill out the line backing corps. Christopher is the leading returning tackler. Don’t be surprised if weatherspoon loses his spot to connell davis or if pinkel puts keck and Alexander both out on the field and pulls weatherspoon off. To me this looks like a pretty big downgrade at this position but it is loaded with some pretty highly ranked recruits out of high school. Luke Lambert also impressed in the spring.
Secondary- Darnell Terrell is a stud and they are actually pretty deep at this spot. He and Ricks account for 21 starts a year ago and gives the tigers a pretty solid set of corners. The question will be at safety but I think the pig and moore should be more than adequate and make this secondary a pretty solid one. They ranked 37<SUP>th</SUP> versus the pass a year ago and I doubt that will improve. Not because I believe that it is worse than a year ago but because I think Missouri will be defending some big leads and therefore defending the pass more. About the same here as last year.
Coaching- Pinkel isn’t exactly what I would call a master coach but what he lacks in game day adjustments he makes up for in preparation. The offense will be fine so if he can coach up the defense he should have a very very solid year. He seems very confident in his team this year and that coupled with high expectations means that he should be in this 100 percent. Below average coach in my opinion.
Illinois and how they have changed
QB- The juice is in the house !! No no no don’t run in fear, I mean jucie Williams not OJ Simpson. Williams and the Illini passing game was nothing short of abysmal last year, but I think we will see some improvement this year in part to a better supporting cast and in part due to more experience. Illinois threw for just 157 yards a game , ranking them 105<SUP>th</SUP> in the country (ouch). Williams completed less than 40 percent of his attempts and was sacked 2.5 times a game. (ouch again). His decision making was very questionable and he threw an int for every 11 completions, while throwing for less than 1500 yards. Nowhere to go but up from here. This position will be vastly more productive this year. Williams was an excellent , shifty runner from the qb position last year which helped the team rank 10<SUP>th</SUP> in the nation last year in rushing.
Rb- Illini lose top rusher Thomas but Rashard Mendenhall will be just fine as the workhorse of this team. They are somewhat thin at this position, so if mendenhall gets hurt the drop off could be dramatic. The illini rushed for almost 2300 yards last year and there is no way, no way that I see them repeating those numbers though the attack should be as solid. The reason for this will be a more balanced attack with better talent at receiver and a year of experience under Williams belt.
Ol -Illinois looks pretty strong up front. They should average just under 300 pounds across the front and have experience at 4 of the 5 starting positions. They have two very strong players in Odonnell and Millington and the rest of the line save the Rg loosk pretty solid too. This unit will open up holes for mendenhall on a regular basis and should be improved over last year. The main problem this line has shown has been in pass protection. They allowed a whopping , humiliating 2.5 sacks a game last year. What makes this even more incredible is that they failed to yield one a year ago to the buckeyes. Opposing defenders were running through unblocked all year long and if the coaching staff does not address this it will be another long year in the passing game. This unit should be improved as well.
Wr- What an atrocious performance the wr of Illinois put forth last year. They couldn’t get open , when they did the play was either disrupted already by the pass rush or they would drop the ball when Juice ever did hit their hands. There is hope on the horizon. They return their top 4 catchers from a year ago and bring in a “can’t miss” receiver in Benn out of high school. Jeff Cumberland gives Williams a speedy out at the TE position (( very very difficult match up for most linebackers)) when the protection breaks down. Kyle Hudson should improve his catch making ( some drops last year). Besides , anyone named kyle can’t be too bad. This unit is improved from a year ago for sure …… but how hard is it to imrpove from a pass ranking of 105 ??
Special teams- the placekicker is fine but I think Illinois had the WORST punting game in all of cfb last year. The balls that weren’t blocked were shanked in fear and while this has to be better than last year it is a huge weakness on this team. Improved for sure .. But like the passing offense , how can it not be.
DL- Illinois employs a 4-3 defense and returns 3 starters to their DL that was fairly effective at stopping the run a year ago (51<SUP>st</SUP> nationally in run happy big ten). Zook has recruited well at this position and that has made it EXTREMELY deep. With that said they only start one senior at the position ( though they aren’t without experience). They failed to score more than one sack in half of their games last year and they will need to improve on the pass rush if they hope to improve on the 27 pts a game that they gave up a year ago. All in all , a pretty solid unit and it makes my top 25 ol groups.
Lb- All starters are back from a pretty athletic unit led by J Leman, who made first team all big ten in linebacker heaven Big 10. This unit accounted for 280 tackles a year ago !!!!! Coupled with the DL , they are a very formidable run defense that held Wisconsin to 99 and penn state to 40 yards last year. They did struggle at times in reading the play action and covering tight ends but with a lot of experience they should be better diagnosing plays this year. They have more decent recruits in the wings making this a deep unit also. My goodness Zook is recruiting like a madman !!
Secondary - Davis and Bellamy will try to cover the wideouts this year for the illini. Both have 4.4 speed and davis started 11 times as a true freshman for the 31<SUP>st</SUP> ranked pass defense in the nation a year ago while playing in the run happy Big 10. I see this as somewhat of a weakness. The illini counted on Alan Bell to cover the opposing number 1 receiver a year ago and while now sophomore Davis has some starting experience, he will be asked to guard the best the opponent has to offer now. The other corner has very limited experience at this level and has a tendency to gamble a lot. The safety positions will be manned by Harrison and Mitchell who provide excellent run support and good tackling skills. They will provide the leadership that the two sophomores will need. This unit looks like a slight downgrade to me , losing by far their best player in the defensive backfield.
Coaching- zook. Wow…. Not a huge game day fan of this guy but he can recruit like a crazed fiend. If he can help Williams progress at the qb position , get Benn ready for big time college football , scheme the ol better for pass protection and get a punt off over 35 yards, this team could be great. Don’t look for great halftime adjustments from him though.
How I See The Game
Missouri offense vs. Illinois defense
Truth be told, I don’t believe there is a defense in the nation that can shut down the tigers offense. It is too balanced , too experienced and too potent. Missouri averaged over 30 points a game a year ago and they will average more than that this year. They will spread the Illinois defense out and let Daniel do his thing, mixing in a decent rush attack with Temple. The Illinois DL , which has been much more effective against the run will have to look to provide more pressure on the qb and account for him in the running game.
The games in which Illinois was most effective versus the run were in games that they faced immobile qb’s such as stocco and morelli. The safeties and linebackers that stacked up vs. the run or rolled coverages to help the young corners, will now be responsible for helping with the third wideout or the TE tandem of Coffman and Rucker. I look for a very balanced attack from Missouri that tends to score a lot in the first few weeks of the year. 2005 44, 35, 52. 2006 47 , 34, 27. Couple that with illini loving to allow points on the road( 27 a game in 2006) and I see a high scoring game from Missouri. I see 34 -38 points here.
Illinois offense vs. Missouri defense
I think Illinois can run the ball on the tigers. The Ol matches up favorable to the dl of Missouri and the tiger linebackers arent the greatest in the world to make up for any lost battles up front. With that said, while they can be effective , I do not think they can dominate and that will mean that they will have to make some big plays in the passing game. I am not a believer yet in juice Williams. He lacks confidence in the pocket and while he should improve this year ( a little better protection should help) it would take a lot to match what daniel brings to the table. The receivers really struggled to get open last year and dropped a lot fo passes when they did and I think Terrell can shut down the best wr tht Illinois has to offer. While I think Benn will become a stud, I think its too much to ask of him to be the man in the first game of his college career. Just the same, this team should score some points on a defense weaker than most they will be seeing in the big 10 this year. I foresee about 20-24 points here.
Final Score:
Missouri 37 Illinois 23
The Bet:
My power ranking line : Missouri -9
Current line : Missouri -5.5
Well, I was fortunate enough to hit this line at CRIS when it first opened and got a 3.5. Missouri is going to score in this game, and in every game and it is a bad match up for an Illinois team that I see being pretty darn good this year. Last year, the Illinois defense played against versions of the spread offense twice in games against purdue and northwestern. They gave up 42 to purdue and 27 to northwestern in losing both games by double digits. They lost by 6 points or more in 4 of their 5 road games and gave up 27.2 pts a game away from home. Their lone win on the road came over Michigan state last year the week after the Spartans melted down and blew a big lead to the irish. The Spartans never recovered. Offensively, the illini averaged just 15 points a game on the road last year and show little regard to the value of the football, turning it over repeatedly. While I look for the illini to improve on their turnover ratio, I have to trust daniel more than Williams when it comes to coveting the football.
Missouri on the other hand is a scoring machine, with confident, mature, experienced players all over the field on offense. They averaged over 30 a game last year and I believe will score more points this year. They will score on the illini as well. The spread offense will prevent Illinois from keeping its safeties and linebackers close to the line of scrimmage and allow for a balanced attack to gain yards on the ground. The matchup with the two tight ends that Missouri employs are a nightmare for coaches and it is difficult for me to see them not getting theirs. Given that I see Missouri putting up a lot of points , I see them leading most of the game and that will mean that Illinois will have to divert from the run game somewhat. The run game is the one spot where I think Illinois has an edge but given a deficit they will throw more and be apt to make some mistakes. This team hasn’t learned yet how to win and I think this is a very difficult spot to start learning that. They travel to stlouis which while technically not a home game ( and I do expect a good contingency of illini fans ) , I think it would be a mistake to not give mizzou a 2 pt edge for the field. So I am betting Missouri tigers -3.5 over Illinois ( current line 5.5 I believe).:cheers:
rayer. Looking over the uconn/duke game again.... can't be too hard to talk me off of betting duke ( football that is ).
