Time to post my wednesday april 9 baseball

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 8-3 +4.54

dogs 6-9 -1.37
overs 1-1 EVEN
unders 1-1-1 -0.17 units

sorry for tiny blurbs instead of writeups today.


colorado rockies +115 -- wow what a nice home dog we have here. First thing that jumps out at you about this matchup is how well that the rockies hit James. The team hits .321 against him but the 1-4 batters are even better , batting .379. The braves bullpen this year has been nothing short of horrendous and you have to expect to see them with James on the mound here are the innings he pitched as an away starter last year.........5 , 5, 5, 5.1 , 7, 5.1 , 6 , 6 , 4.1 , 6.2 , 5 , 6 , 6, 3, 3.2 .....so you cant expect him to pitch long innnings here. James ERA vs colorado last year was 6.97 and they hit him at a .308 average. James is a major flyball pitcher which hurts him in the stadium a lot ... I am not just talking about homeruns .... there is a lot of ground to cover in the outfield and James simply doesnt induce groundballs enough. I love this matchup of the rockies bats vs james and the braves bullpen for this game. So lets look at Redman a second. Certainly he is not my favorite pitcher in the land, but he has pitched well against the braves bats. The braves current roster bats just .180 against him and he has completely owned the two guys in the braves lineup that one would expect to produce rbi. ..... chipper jones is just 3-16 against him and texeira is 0-10. Redman pitched below average in his first outing but i expect more here. Also redman is a groundball pitcher ... I like having the groundball pitcher vs the flyball pitcher in coors. Rockies offense is a lot better than they have shown so far this year and I expect them to prove it in this game. I also lean to the over but Redmans ownership of the braves in the limited at bats they have seen him gives me pause.



tigers +110---- tigers hit lefties about as good as anyone last year and this lineup should do even better. i will be looking to play them a lot at decent prices when they face a lefty and that applies here. bondreman pitches really well against boston as the red sox bat just .230 against him and ramirez is really the only guy that hits him great. lester is sort of a hit or miss guy .. i am never confident as to whether he will bring really good stuff or not. One thing you can be extremely confident in is the fact that the guy frequently walks people and infrequently pitches innings. by now you likely know how i feel about the 5 inning pitcher in mlb. Finally putting a unit on these tigers who were my preseason world series winners.

cubs -130 ---all the key guys for the cubs see duke well. ramirez hits .333, lee hits .400 , soriano hits .455 ......ryan dempster seemed to make the transition to starter ok in his first start. huge difference between these two lineups and duke just never developed into the pitcher i thought he would earlier in his career.

mets -130 --- mets hit over 400 off of kendrick , phillies hit .200 off of pelfrey. kendrick pitched poorly in his last outing and i see more of the same. i actually dont think this guy is in the rotation come summer.

reds +150 --- simply put the reds annihilate dave bush at the plate. if you lay that number with bush on the mound against the reds then you should re-evaluate what you are doing. the brewers cannot be a profitable bet in this spot. not saying they cant win tomorrow.... duh ...obviously they can ... but no way in a frozen over hell would you make money long term laying a price that big with a pitcher who the other team just loves to see take the hill

good luck in whatever you play guys and gals.
 
kyle-Any worries that the Pirates typically hammer Dempster? I couldn't agree more with the Reds pick. +$$$ is a gift even if Fogg is on the mound. There is no reason to think Bush pitches well tonight.

Personally I think it's borderline insanity to bet the Mets against the Phillies while laying -130 for the full game considering how much the Phillie bats own that pen and how the Phillies pen owns the Mets bats. 5 innings? Sure, but the full game? Ballsy.Pelfrey pitched against the Phillies last year when the bats were cold, I don't think it had much to do with him. Could be wrong though.

I've gotta say that the Tigers are damn intriguing today. By now the books realize that tons of people are going to be fading them, and -130 seems like a great price to sucker people in with the defending champs playing a winless team at home. Throw in the fact that the Red Sox might be in a position where they don't have the A game. They finally got to sit down and enjoy being home, got a win on the day they get their rings. Seems like a perfect letdown spot.

GL VK
 
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I think Lester has a big year, and I am in no way, shape, or form ready to back Detroit.

... this does not mean I am backing Boston today either.
 
BOL today VK, with you on Colorado.

Hopefully Leyland doesn't put in Grilli to kill your Detroit bet.
 
thanks everyone.

mags -cheers bud

yanks -- yeah i also think the over might be a decent bet in colorado .. but i dont like betting the side and the over when i have the home team and what if redman actually is that good against these particular hitters ? i doubt it , and the sample size is small ..... guess mostly i just dont like the correlation.

mcg -- yup there are concerns anytime i lay a price against a lineup like the phillies. never feel like the game is wrapped up. concerns me that the phillies have just had the mets number more than anything else, it should translate to good mtivation for the mets but a lot about baseball is confidence and the phils have that right now against the mets. Most of this bet is the fact that i dont think kendrick is very good, period. as i mentioned i dont think he is in the rotation come the summer months. Think you make a decent point about the price though ....i would not be willing to lay much more in this game with pelfrey vs the phillies. You are also right .. that was a time when the phils bats were a bit freezing. so ya , i have a few concerns.

bluechip - dont necessaruly disagree that lester can pitch some solid games this year ... but there are many a matchup that are better than the one vs detroit today. 8 games ago , bonderman would have been a 20 cent favorite in this spot ...Personally i still believe the tigers are a good squad even if they are not playing great baseball right now. So i think i get 30 cents the best of it here based on just one week of baseball.

thanks dmoney ..... dusty baker would pinch hit with grilli and then have sheffield pitch. After watching dusty manage a game i think i'll take my chances with leyland.

lets cash that colorado ticket ramble
 
Boston and Lester would be favored at Fenway over Detroit and Bondo even if both teams were 0-0. How do you figure a 20-cent favorite?
 
bluechip - dont necessaruly disagree that lester can pitch some solid games this year ... but there are many a matchup that are better than the one vs detroit today. 8 games ago , bonderman would have been a 20 cent favorite in this spot ...Personally i still believe the tigers are a good squad even if they are not playing great baseball right now. So i think i get 30 cents the best of it here based on just one week of baseball.

8 games down... 154 to go

It's a marathon and I agree. Detroit is a good squad, they just started out on the wrong foot, although I do think the bullpen and rotation will prevent them from doing anything big this year.
 
tipyer -- maybe a 20 cent favorite is what i would expect and not what it would actually be. Though it would not be far off from that if at all. guess i just base it on the lines these pitchers have been involved with previously

bonderman april 3 home to greinke -185

lester march 26 ( japan ) neutral field to harden -105
lester april 2 at harden +125

so that is where the thought is coming from. i might have over estimated a bit there and it should be noted that i think bonerman was overvalued against greinke as well.
 
vegas- I think what you have to look at is that Boston's almost never a dog at Fenway. They were 21 games over .500 at home in 2007, 15 over in 2006, 27 over in 2005. Last season, a year the Sox weren't coming off a WS title, the Red Sox were slight dogs 3X out of 81. Gabbard v. Hudson, Hansack (who?) v. Smoltz, Tavarez v. Halladay. They were even money a couple times v. the Yankees when the pitching match-up was not in their favor. That's it. Chalk the other 76X. They would never be dogs to a ham-and-egger like Bonderman with one of their own regular starters on the mound. I'm scratching my head on why Boston's not more favored, the way Detroit's playing. Book seems to be accounting for Detroit's desperation, which I think means squat. I'm leaning Sox in this one if I bet it.
 
decent points about bosox and being a home dog ..... but keep in mind that boston and new york yanks are consistently the most difficult teams to find value with in a line .... the public loves them. So most of their games are off from what i make them anyway.

i wouldnt consider bonderman a ham and egger unless i also considered lester french toast.

agree to disagree on this game i guess. good news for you... i havent posted a winning day yet this week.
 
UnFUCKINbelievable !! Wasted an hour on a huge writeup...

Bottomline really like DET here. If they cant win tonight I dont know when they will. First yesterday was basically a must win game after being swept by TOR and aided with the emotion of returning home , WS celebration , Opening Day and Dice K shutting the doors. Now today maybe they feel drained lik ethey should have yesterday after finally coming back from teh 3 country 19day trek .

Favorable matchup as u can have. First inregards to price Bonderman was -160 to 165 vs Gabbard last season and that would flip to about Boston -120 if played at Fenway. Figure Lester worth a few pennies more then Gabbard. The previous year Bonderman pitched @ Fenway (and won) vs Schilling as Bos was abbout -135....so everything about the LINE makes sense IMO. Bos had DiceK yesterday and was only -160 vs Rogers , you could say that lester is probably worth 50 cents less and Bonderman you would expect about 20 cents more then the GAMBLER.....So if -160 was fair then this is actually overpriced even at -120

Bondermans last 3 starts vs Boston have been extremely good. Look uo the stats he pitches better on the road past 2 seasons and his start vs KC wasnt so bad.

Manny is 5/16 vs him and Pedroi a 2/4 whuile everyone else struggles. Ortiz 4 / 21 , Lowell and Youk both 0 /9 , Drew 2/7 , Lugo 3/11 , Crisp 10/42 , Varitek 2/12..guess we could see Ellsbury in there...

Det vs LHP is MIND BOGGLING
Pudge 302 / .746 OPS
Guillen 302 / 921
Polanco 326 /913
Renteria 349 / 918
Cabrera 364 / 1.173
Thames 310 / 927
Inge 333 / 923
Ordonez 410 / 1.213

Sheff disregard his past 2 years when he played hurt. Which his hand may be less ten 100 still but 05 and 04 in NY vs LHP..
344 / 948 OPS and 359 / 1.109

Simply RIDICULOUS! Buerhle pitched well vs them as the only opposing LHP but two things happened. Buerhle was due for a bounce back start aftre being held back 3 days just to pitch vs CLE and DET actually hit him somewhat early but I think Santiago drove ina run and tried to stretch it to a triple and got gunned down to make the 1st out of the inning at 3rd base , cardinal sin ! The game was tied at 1-1 but killed so much momentum for them and soon thereafter verlander fell apart and they were looking up...here Bonderman should keep BOS at bay offensively and they should eventually hit Lester who struggles with command and walks ...

Strong play on DET if they were playing well and not 0-7 they would be favored IMO...BOL all
 
don't assume a team that ain't hitting is gonna hit until they hit. just enjoy the ride. my 3 cents.
 
don't assume a team that ain't hitting is gonna hit until they hit. just enjoy the ride. my 3 cents.


True, but this team wont hit RHPs well until Granderson comes back. I see to many teams that are unbalanced and struggling . Just like NYY wont hit well vs LHP. They have faced some quality RHP so its not like they arent hitting vs crap arms either. The less then quality SP the hard early leads vs that disappeared they have blown three leads of at least 3 runs If I recall correctly in 7 games. There 0-7 but could easily be 3-4. They now have Yankee syndrome !! To many LIKE hitters in one lineup for us its all LHBs and them its all RHBs. None of there RHs draw walks and all will struggle vs good RH because they are free swingers . They may not strikeout a ton but they will also help get themselves out...

I 'll take my chances at PLUS money when my team has NINE guys hitting above 300 vs LHP vs a team who has limited atbats vs Bonderman and has produced 18/90 ..with the added bonus that DET is slumping and in need of a win while BOS who isnt hitting either and has to deal with getting there bodies asjusted to being back EAST after 19 days away...

Tip , I definetly see your point but Boston isnt playing that much better at the moment either . We have a SP with a history of solid work vs Boston vs a guy who hasnt faced a good lineup yet or at least since 2006 outside of maybe Toronto. :shake:
 
Shouldnt say NONE of DET RHs draw walks but they have to many freeswingers and even guys like Sheff and Cabrera who do will swing wildly at stuff..
 
Great job VK. Had all 4 sides but didnt play COL just took the over instead. Nice day...need SFG to finish it strong..
 
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UPDATED BASEBALL RECORD
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 10-3 +6.54

dogs 9-9 +2.23
overs 1-1 EVEN
unders 1-1-1 -0.17 units


Thanks robo , everyone ... 5-0 with three dogs hitting is a good day. cubs were an adventure and feel bad for anyone unfortunate enough to have had the under.

reds -- as advertised , they own bush.
detroit --didnt look good first few innings but finely got some timely hitting and the bullpen did the job. nice effort from bonderman.
cubs -- well , they were the better team today but still not sure they deserved to win. kept blowing leads in pitts final at bat ... but ended up winning. bullpens were heavily taxed so keep that in mind for tomorrow.
rockies -- again as advertised. rockies hit james hard.
mets -- really the mets didnt play as well as the score indicates ... phillies made some bad defensive plays in this one and that broke the game wide open.

be back later with thoughts on tomorrow. hope everyone had a good day as well.
 
Well I need some zzzz...after a great day 6-2 sides and 2-1 totals..

Looking at

Reds with Harang
Bravos with Hudson
Mets with Maine especially if Rollins is OUT again.
Cards with Wainright. Looks tasty but have to factor the night game then trip to SF . Possible 1st 5 under?
Rays with E.Jackson. Even with the time here cant be crazy about taking a West Coast team at 12:40 start its still 9:40 AM !
Jays with Marcum
Yanks with Pettitte . Problem is NYY was 6-1 L7 vs LH SP but ONLY 7-21 L28 road games vs LH SP. ANother UNDER ? 1st 5 INN Under ? KC 15-26 L 51 at Home vs LH SP and 37-80 L 117 vs LH SP !!! OUCH !

:cheers:

Thats all I have glanced at early thoughts and other comments in the Thursday ddiscussion thread. BOL All!
 
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