RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 19-19 -3.09units
dogs 26-18 +14.40units
overs 3-5-1 -2.00 units
unders 13-4-1 +8.53 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
ok we seem to be back on track with consecutive winning days to counteract that little losing streak at the end of last week. Here is what I see for tomorrow.
Braves - As we get further into the season we start to lose one of my favorite angles which is the "they haven't seen him before" angle. Luckily we still get that here with Jurrjens facing the nats. What is even better is that I love Jurrjens spot in the rotation right now. He has some pretty nasty stuff and after seeing glavine throw ( intelligent pitching but not nasty anymore ) tuesday , his stuff may even look harder to hit. The nationals have never had an AB against him. Jurrjens sports a 3.45 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.He has given up just 15 hits in 19 innings pitched on the road this year , so i have some confidence that he can bring it anywhere. And dont forget the nationals bat just .229 vs righties so far this year. Hill will do the dirty work from the mound for the nats tomorrow. The braves haven't seen a ton of him either but they have seen him for a few AB and have hit him well , batting over .300 as a roster vs hill. Hill has a 1.70 WHIP and has given up a batting average to opponents of over .300. Braves are hitting righties to the tune of .282 as well. Also , while the nats go from looking at Glavine to looking at Jurrjens ..... the Braves get to go from looking at a red hot Redding to looking at shawn hill. Like the spot as well. All adds up to a braves win.
padres --stuff to junk applies again. Hamels just has nasty movement and now they get corner nibbling junk baller , Moyer. Moyer has been getting it done with mirrors so far folks. Some will say it is just Jamie being a wily veteran but i believe he has been catching some breaks. He did not pitch as well as a 6 inning , 1 er allowed box score would show you in his last outing against the brewers. The brewers made numerous baserunning errors to assist moyer in getting out of jams. His ERa is a decent 4.05 but i think his WHIP of 1.73 is more telling here. In addition, Moyer has not been doing his best pitching at home. In 14.2 innings pitched at home , Moyer has given up 25 hits. If the padres hitters want any kind of offensive numbers at years end then they have to hit guys like moyer in ballparks like this one in philly. Cause they arent going to generate offense at home. Chris Young will start for the padres. Youngs ERA and WHIP are both slightly better than Moyers at 3.77 and 1.40 respectively.... but as with all the padres pitchers you have to take those numbers and break them down in and out of petco. on the road so far this year young has given up 8 er in just 9 innings pitched. He has only allowed ten hits in those appearances but his control has been questionable all year. He has given up an incredible 18 free passes in just 28.2 innings ... and just 22 hits over that same stretch. So for Yound it will mostly be about control. But the other thing you should take note of when looking at young is that he has really performed well in every start except the one at the dodgers. He allowed a combined 6 er in his other 4 starts ( 2,1,2,1 ). He is also coming off his most dominating performance where he was a hardluck loser after pitching seven innings of 2 hit baseball , striking out ten and giving up just 1 er in a 1-0 loss. Young has good history vs the phillies bats as well ... they only bat .163 vs Young in 49 AB. So the one concern would be control or a small strike zone... but Moyer has to nibble corners to succeed ... so if the strike zone is small it will aid us more in that regard. lots to like here i think.
dodgers/marlins under === sometimes the obvious makes sense, Admittedly , I may have put the horse before the carriage a little bit in regards to Billingsley. Still, i am a believer in him and the marlins have not seen him well in the past , batting just .224. I actually watched Billingsleys last outing and he was VERY hardluck. 6 innings, 6 hits , 5 er 12 SO. He was dealing ! He started out slow in that game ... yeilding single , walk , single to give up a run in top of first. Kemp then misplayed what should have been an easy flyball and the next guy homered. Later he suffered from bad defense again .. wild pitch , and a poorly executed dp failure. I think i can trust him to bring it again here and i expect the defense to be ready to respond after they let him down badly the last time. The marlins have been hitting righties pretty good so there is some concern there ... hopefully the strikeout can bail billingsley out of any jams. Olsen is the other pitcher in this total and he has pitched like a stud so far this year. 2.06 era 1.03 WHIP. Add in the fact that the dodgers roster bats under .200 vs him and you have to like his chances of success here. He has given up 1 er in his last 14 innings pitched at home. Most of the dodgers good hitting has occurred at home and they have been pretty dismal on the road. For an under to hit i usually need just one of the two pitchers to have a good day. Think we are the favorite in that regard. Should be Dana Demuth behind the dish calling balls and strikes and he has been a good under guy so far this year.
Tiring as usual , so smaller writeups from here ...
cubs -- going with the decent righty at home vs the brewer lineup. Cubs have hit Suppan decently in the past and look for the cubbies to bounce back here from yesterdays debacle.
A's/Angels under ---lots of stats and trends point to under in this one. maybe i will type it out tomorrow if i feel like it
leans
toronto
pirates
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 19-19 -3.09units
dogs 26-18 +14.40units
overs 3-5-1 -2.00 units
unders 13-4-1 +8.53 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
ok we seem to be back on track with consecutive winning days to counteract that little losing streak at the end of last week. Here is what I see for tomorrow.
Braves - As we get further into the season we start to lose one of my favorite angles which is the "they haven't seen him before" angle. Luckily we still get that here with Jurrjens facing the nats. What is even better is that I love Jurrjens spot in the rotation right now. He has some pretty nasty stuff and after seeing glavine throw ( intelligent pitching but not nasty anymore ) tuesday , his stuff may even look harder to hit. The nationals have never had an AB against him. Jurrjens sports a 3.45 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.He has given up just 15 hits in 19 innings pitched on the road this year , so i have some confidence that he can bring it anywhere. And dont forget the nationals bat just .229 vs righties so far this year. Hill will do the dirty work from the mound for the nats tomorrow. The braves haven't seen a ton of him either but they have seen him for a few AB and have hit him well , batting over .300 as a roster vs hill. Hill has a 1.70 WHIP and has given up a batting average to opponents of over .300. Braves are hitting righties to the tune of .282 as well. Also , while the nats go from looking at Glavine to looking at Jurrjens ..... the Braves get to go from looking at a red hot Redding to looking at shawn hill. Like the spot as well. All adds up to a braves win.
padres --stuff to junk applies again. Hamels just has nasty movement and now they get corner nibbling junk baller , Moyer. Moyer has been getting it done with mirrors so far folks. Some will say it is just Jamie being a wily veteran but i believe he has been catching some breaks. He did not pitch as well as a 6 inning , 1 er allowed box score would show you in his last outing against the brewers. The brewers made numerous baserunning errors to assist moyer in getting out of jams. His ERa is a decent 4.05 but i think his WHIP of 1.73 is more telling here. In addition, Moyer has not been doing his best pitching at home. In 14.2 innings pitched at home , Moyer has given up 25 hits. If the padres hitters want any kind of offensive numbers at years end then they have to hit guys like moyer in ballparks like this one in philly. Cause they arent going to generate offense at home. Chris Young will start for the padres. Youngs ERA and WHIP are both slightly better than Moyers at 3.77 and 1.40 respectively.... but as with all the padres pitchers you have to take those numbers and break them down in and out of petco. on the road so far this year young has given up 8 er in just 9 innings pitched. He has only allowed ten hits in those appearances but his control has been questionable all year. He has given up an incredible 18 free passes in just 28.2 innings ... and just 22 hits over that same stretch. So for Yound it will mostly be about control. But the other thing you should take note of when looking at young is that he has really performed well in every start except the one at the dodgers. He allowed a combined 6 er in his other 4 starts ( 2,1,2,1 ). He is also coming off his most dominating performance where he was a hardluck loser after pitching seven innings of 2 hit baseball , striking out ten and giving up just 1 er in a 1-0 loss. Young has good history vs the phillies bats as well ... they only bat .163 vs Young in 49 AB. So the one concern would be control or a small strike zone... but Moyer has to nibble corners to succeed ... so if the strike zone is small it will aid us more in that regard. lots to like here i think.
dodgers/marlins under === sometimes the obvious makes sense, Admittedly , I may have put the horse before the carriage a little bit in regards to Billingsley. Still, i am a believer in him and the marlins have not seen him well in the past , batting just .224. I actually watched Billingsleys last outing and he was VERY hardluck. 6 innings, 6 hits , 5 er 12 SO. He was dealing ! He started out slow in that game ... yeilding single , walk , single to give up a run in top of first. Kemp then misplayed what should have been an easy flyball and the next guy homered. Later he suffered from bad defense again .. wild pitch , and a poorly executed dp failure. I think i can trust him to bring it again here and i expect the defense to be ready to respond after they let him down badly the last time. The marlins have been hitting righties pretty good so there is some concern there ... hopefully the strikeout can bail billingsley out of any jams. Olsen is the other pitcher in this total and he has pitched like a stud so far this year. 2.06 era 1.03 WHIP. Add in the fact that the dodgers roster bats under .200 vs him and you have to like his chances of success here. He has given up 1 er in his last 14 innings pitched at home. Most of the dodgers good hitting has occurred at home and they have been pretty dismal on the road. For an under to hit i usually need just one of the two pitchers to have a good day. Think we are the favorite in that regard. Should be Dana Demuth behind the dish calling balls and strikes and he has been a good under guy so far this year.
Tiring as usual , so smaller writeups from here ...
cubs -- going with the decent righty at home vs the brewer lineup. Cubs have hit Suppan decently in the past and look for the cubbies to bounce back here from yesterdays debacle.
A's/Angels under ---lots of stats and trends point to under in this one. maybe i will type it out tomorrow if i feel like it
leans
toronto
pirates
