RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 13-10 +1.12 units
dogs 14-13 +3.89 units
overs 2-3 -1.00 units
unders 6-2-1 +3.68 units
ok another good day again yesterday and really feel locked in right now in general. lets look at wednesday ....
baltimore orioles +110 -- This is another one of those plays where if you are backing the white sox , I have to simply question your fundamentals. This is a clear bet on Loewen and the orioles. The white sox have never seen loewen pitch before .... you know how i feel about that angle and it has proven quite effective so far this year .... in addition , loewen is a lefty ..... and you know the whtie sox continue to struggle vs lefties with no light at the end of that tunnel that i can see. in addition , you have a heavy groundball guy in a small ballpark .... which you also know by now that i love. Loewen has given up three ding dongs already this year but only gave up 2 over 30 innings last year. At home last year he pitched very well ......16.2 innings , 12 hits , 3 er. He does not necessarily go long innings though and the orioles used their bullpen pretty hard in the loss to toronto today. Loewen also did not look great in his only home start this year. Baltimore specifically worked their rotation schedule so that loewen could pitch vs the poor cws bats vs lefthanded pitching instead of having to face the good hitting of the jays vs lefties. Should pay dividends here. Now , on the other side of the equation we have jose contreras. As I have said before i like contreras a little bit , especially as a dog because he is a bit inconsistent but when he has his good stuff he is very difficult to hit. The problem here is that he is not a dog ... he is a road favorite. But what I really like is how well the orioles bat against him. They bat .367 as a team vs contreras and virtually all of them have had success against him. If contreras knows this i like it even more since he has been a headcase at times in the past. against baltimore last year he went 11 innings 18 hits 11 runs. He is not a great april pitcher either. Contreras is a groundball guy as well so he may be able to pitch out of trouble with some double plays and K's. This is one of the easiest plays of the year. Win or lose this bet , i know that based on the information available that i am making the correct bet.
san francisco giants +150 -- i know i know ... its brandon webb. But it is also brandon webb on the road vs a group of guys that actually hit him pretty well. The giants lineup bats about .280 off the guy if you eliminate pitcher AB and almost all of the key guys hit him well. Winn , durham , roberts , molina... So the edge for Webb ( and despite the numbers i think you still have to give an edge to webb ) is not as great as one would think in this matchup. And despite the April that Webb has had so far , he is by far a better pitcher in the hot summer months when he gets that extra movement on his nasty breaking stuff. So i think there is a decent chance that the giants could actually scratch out a few runs here believe it or not. Meanwhile Zito takes the hill for the giants and he has actually had great success against the dbacks bats. The dbacks bat just .258 off of him and have only one HR in 89 AB. I think Zito prefers the summer months as well for similar reasons .. the curve will move more. Zito is 0-3 despite not really pitching poorly and webb is 3-0 and pitching like the incredible pitcher he is. Couple that with common perception that dbacks are awesome and giants suck donkey balls and you get a nice little value in the line. Do I think the giants win tomorrow. no.... not really... but i think they win in this spot enough times to make betting zito and the giants at this price profitable.
seattle mariners/oakland A's under 8 -- Why not ? Hernandez has pitched well all year long and has great success against the A's bats in the past. He has given up only one homer in 82 AB and the A;s bat just .256 against him. Hard to expect the A's to produce runs without the longball and oakland isnt exactly a hitters park. The line here tells you something ... Blanton can pitch and especially at home. Hence the small pricetag on Hernandez. Blanton has given up 3 , 2 , and 2 in his three home starts this year and faces a seattle team that much prefers lefthanders on the mound. As a team the mariners bat just .257 off of blanton and he is very solid vs the middle of their lineup. ibanez .222 , beltre .194 and sexson .156. I like the A's bullpen a lot and think the M's while banged up is adequate. Slight lean to blanton here because of the bullpens as i envision a low scoring grind it out type game. Doubt both of these excellent pitchers with excellent histories vs their opponents fail to show up. Gonna take a shot at the under here.
leans ...
rockies +120 -- just like the siruation and the matchup ... quickly .....what we have is rockies hit germano well and righties well ....348 avg off justin. Coming off an embarrassing performance i think they rebound in a better situation. Then you have Redman for the rockies who owns the top of the padres lineup. Germano hot right now and i am not sure i can trust rockies bats.
twins -- hit shields well and Hernandez is pitching well... ... still feeling effects from detroit chokejob ??
only other real lean tomorrow is detroit. heating up and rate to pound lefties and sabathia looks like a pitcher from artie langs beer league right now. will look at it more tomorrow.
gl gang
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 13-10 +1.12 units
dogs 14-13 +3.89 units
overs 2-3 -1.00 units
unders 6-2-1 +3.68 units
ok another good day again yesterday and really feel locked in right now in general. lets look at wednesday ....
baltimore orioles +110 -- This is another one of those plays where if you are backing the white sox , I have to simply question your fundamentals. This is a clear bet on Loewen and the orioles. The white sox have never seen loewen pitch before .... you know how i feel about that angle and it has proven quite effective so far this year .... in addition , loewen is a lefty ..... and you know the whtie sox continue to struggle vs lefties with no light at the end of that tunnel that i can see. in addition , you have a heavy groundball guy in a small ballpark .... which you also know by now that i love. Loewen has given up three ding dongs already this year but only gave up 2 over 30 innings last year. At home last year he pitched very well ......16.2 innings , 12 hits , 3 er. He does not necessarily go long innings though and the orioles used their bullpen pretty hard in the loss to toronto today. Loewen also did not look great in his only home start this year. Baltimore specifically worked their rotation schedule so that loewen could pitch vs the poor cws bats vs lefthanded pitching instead of having to face the good hitting of the jays vs lefties. Should pay dividends here. Now , on the other side of the equation we have jose contreras. As I have said before i like contreras a little bit , especially as a dog because he is a bit inconsistent but when he has his good stuff he is very difficult to hit. The problem here is that he is not a dog ... he is a road favorite. But what I really like is how well the orioles bat against him. They bat .367 as a team vs contreras and virtually all of them have had success against him. If contreras knows this i like it even more since he has been a headcase at times in the past. against baltimore last year he went 11 innings 18 hits 11 runs. He is not a great april pitcher either. Contreras is a groundball guy as well so he may be able to pitch out of trouble with some double plays and K's. This is one of the easiest plays of the year. Win or lose this bet , i know that based on the information available that i am making the correct bet.
san francisco giants +150 -- i know i know ... its brandon webb. But it is also brandon webb on the road vs a group of guys that actually hit him pretty well. The giants lineup bats about .280 off the guy if you eliminate pitcher AB and almost all of the key guys hit him well. Winn , durham , roberts , molina... So the edge for Webb ( and despite the numbers i think you still have to give an edge to webb ) is not as great as one would think in this matchup. And despite the April that Webb has had so far , he is by far a better pitcher in the hot summer months when he gets that extra movement on his nasty breaking stuff. So i think there is a decent chance that the giants could actually scratch out a few runs here believe it or not. Meanwhile Zito takes the hill for the giants and he has actually had great success against the dbacks bats. The dbacks bat just .258 off of him and have only one HR in 89 AB. I think Zito prefers the summer months as well for similar reasons .. the curve will move more. Zito is 0-3 despite not really pitching poorly and webb is 3-0 and pitching like the incredible pitcher he is. Couple that with common perception that dbacks are awesome and giants suck donkey balls and you get a nice little value in the line. Do I think the giants win tomorrow. no.... not really... but i think they win in this spot enough times to make betting zito and the giants at this price profitable.
seattle mariners/oakland A's under 8 -- Why not ? Hernandez has pitched well all year long and has great success against the A's bats in the past. He has given up only one homer in 82 AB and the A;s bat just .256 against him. Hard to expect the A's to produce runs without the longball and oakland isnt exactly a hitters park. The line here tells you something ... Blanton can pitch and especially at home. Hence the small pricetag on Hernandez. Blanton has given up 3 , 2 , and 2 in his three home starts this year and faces a seattle team that much prefers lefthanders on the mound. As a team the mariners bat just .257 off of blanton and he is very solid vs the middle of their lineup. ibanez .222 , beltre .194 and sexson .156. I like the A's bullpen a lot and think the M's while banged up is adequate. Slight lean to blanton here because of the bullpens as i envision a low scoring grind it out type game. Doubt both of these excellent pitchers with excellent histories vs their opponents fail to show up. Gonna take a shot at the under here.
leans ...
rockies +120 -- just like the siruation and the matchup ... quickly .....what we have is rockies hit germano well and righties well ....348 avg off justin. Coming off an embarrassing performance i think they rebound in a better situation. Then you have Redman for the rockies who owns the top of the padres lineup. Germano hot right now and i am not sure i can trust rockies bats.
twins -- hit shields well and Hernandez is pitching well... ... still feeling effects from detroit chokejob ??
only other real lean tomorrow is detroit. heating up and rate to pound lefties and sabathia looks like a pitcher from artie langs beer league right now. will look at it more tomorrow.
gl gang
