RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 19-18 -2.04units
dogs 24-17 +12.95units
overs 2-4-1 -2.00 units
unders 12-4-1 +7.53 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
Ok here is what i am looking at for the tuesday baseball. i bolded the ones that i already played and the ones that i am playing for sure. the others are leans
reds -- gonna be a bit repetitive here as to my reasoning that i put into the discussion thread earlier. What i like here boils down to what i see as a mismatch in the pitching matchup. Cueto takes the hill for the reds and he is no secret right now but i like him in these spots where the opponent has not seen him. He has a WHIP under 1 but an ERA of 4.05. The reason for this is that he has given up atleast one homer in every start. In fact he has only given up 24 hits in 33.1 innings but 6 have been homers. He has pitched this well against some pretty decent lineups ...houston , milwaukee , arizona with one bad lineup in pittsburgh ( though they hit 2 hr off him ). On the flip side the cardinals are throwing joel piniero out there and as i stated in a previous "time to post" thread , i really think he is better suited to long relief at this point in his career. His numbers to start the year are adequate for sure ....5.29 era and a whip of 1.41 but that is less impressive when you consider his three starts were against very poot hitting teams ... twice vs the giants and once vs the pirates. Throw in the fact that the reds are a team built to destroy right handed pitching and he may have a problem here. Here is how some of the reds lineup have seen this guy in the past
patterson 4/6 two doubles and a homer
phillips 2/3
griffey 2/3
dunn 2/4 double
So the most important batters seem to see him well. I also think that the reds are starting to play good ball right now and the cards ... well not so much. I noticed them slipping a little at the plate a while back and i havent seen reason to change that opinion over the last week. i played this one alreadu\y at -105 so you will see it in official plays section.
Astros -- I don't have a lot of respect for Edgar Gonzalez who trapped me into what might have been a not too valuable bet last time he pitched in L.A. . Despite the fact that he has pitched better than i expected to start this year doesn't change the fact that he is allowing opponents to hit .293 so far to start the year and he has walked 6 guys in nine innings pitched at home. Astros just saw a heavy dose of Harens nasty stuff and now they get to see the low velocity , junk shit that edgar has. His style of pitching does not play well in that ballpark either. The astros have hit gonzalez hard in the past in what is granted a small sample size. The astros send out righthanded jack cassel. The dbacks seem to hit lefties a little better than righties and they just dont have much history to rely on against cassel as they have zero AB against him. Bid advantage for the astro pitcher the first time through the order and by the second time through he should have a lead to pitch behind. he went 5 innings , giving up 7 hits and 3 er in his only start this year in picking up a win in cincinnati. So he has proven he can win on the road and as i stated in the writeup above , the reds are built to hit righties. What i also like is that he didnt walk anyone. He threw strikes... so i think i have a decent chance of getting a nice edge here in this game via the base on balls. The price seems ridiculous ( tired of joe public making money on the dbacks i guess ) and i already played it at +135 so that will also appear in the official plays post.
white sox and white sox over --Trusting some Bonser trends to continue here. He seems to prefer pitching on the road right now ... he has given up 23 hits in 17 innings pitched at home this year and has been touched for 14 runs over that span. If you look back to the end of last year he got pounded at home down the stretch there as well. Now he faces a white sox lineup that has had success against him . The alst time they saw him they touched him for 8 hits and 5 er in 3 innings. Thome , Konerko , uribe and cabrera all bat .300 or better against him. Floyd takes the hill for the white sox and he has been pitching some nice ball but the twins hit him well and i like their lineup more against righties than lefties. I trust Floyd here more than bonser but you still have to take some of gavin's numbers with a grain of salt. he had two really good outings in early april against the tigers when detroit wasnt hitting anyone and then had a good start at baltimore before getting knocked around a bit by the yankees. Still I can't expect Floyd to completely shutdown the opponent given twins past history against him and the fact that twins are the more rested team here. So i played the white sox and the over ..... see the white sox getting 6-8 runs in this one. Note that i have no exactly been on fire when selecting overs.
shorter writeups incoming cause i am getting tired of typing.
rockies -- Have to like the situation and the splits here. Rockies go with cook who owns the giants bats and lincecum faces the rockies lineup which has tagged him a bit in the past. Not a big fan of the "they need a win" philospohy but this game is pretty big for the rockies right now and cook is the most consistent starter in their rotation right now. Thought i might give the under a look here as well given lincecums start to the year but then i saw the posted 7. no thanks there.
tampa/balty over --- orioles hit hammel , not a fan of garret olson. See a lot of baserunners between these two teams and that is just death in that ballpark. Note the "have not seen them" angle that i love for sides and unders applies here with olson. i just hate his control and expect walks. ... lots of pitches , ... runs and an extended look at baltimores bullpen which i feel has overachieved so far.
oakland/angels under -- really want an under 9 to play this. Saunders is pitching really well and the angels havent seen smith yet.
padres -- seems a bit high to me and throw in the likelihood of a rain delay where you lose the starters early in the game and i think there might be value with the padres. maddux has been pitching well save the start in zona after the 22 inning game. how tough was that spot ? would play this with unlisted pitchers if i liked the dog.
boston -- halladay doesnt like fenway and again we have a situation with a possible rain delay that would benefit the red sox. doubt i play this ..... not a lester fan but there are some trends and stats to back a bosox play here.
gl tomorrow gang.
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 19-18 -2.04units
dogs 24-17 +12.95units
overs 2-4-1 -2.00 units
unders 12-4-1 +7.53 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
Ok here is what i am looking at for the tuesday baseball. i bolded the ones that i already played and the ones that i am playing for sure. the others are leans
reds -- gonna be a bit repetitive here as to my reasoning that i put into the discussion thread earlier. What i like here boils down to what i see as a mismatch in the pitching matchup. Cueto takes the hill for the reds and he is no secret right now but i like him in these spots where the opponent has not seen him. He has a WHIP under 1 but an ERA of 4.05. The reason for this is that he has given up atleast one homer in every start. In fact he has only given up 24 hits in 33.1 innings but 6 have been homers. He has pitched this well against some pretty decent lineups ...houston , milwaukee , arizona with one bad lineup in pittsburgh ( though they hit 2 hr off him ). On the flip side the cardinals are throwing joel piniero out there and as i stated in a previous "time to post" thread , i really think he is better suited to long relief at this point in his career. His numbers to start the year are adequate for sure ....5.29 era and a whip of 1.41 but that is less impressive when you consider his three starts were against very poot hitting teams ... twice vs the giants and once vs the pirates. Throw in the fact that the reds are a team built to destroy right handed pitching and he may have a problem here. Here is how some of the reds lineup have seen this guy in the past
patterson 4/6 two doubles and a homer
phillips 2/3
griffey 2/3
dunn 2/4 double
So the most important batters seem to see him well. I also think that the reds are starting to play good ball right now and the cards ... well not so much. I noticed them slipping a little at the plate a while back and i havent seen reason to change that opinion over the last week. i played this one alreadu\y at -105 so you will see it in official plays section.
Astros -- I don't have a lot of respect for Edgar Gonzalez who trapped me into what might have been a not too valuable bet last time he pitched in L.A. . Despite the fact that he has pitched better than i expected to start this year doesn't change the fact that he is allowing opponents to hit .293 so far to start the year and he has walked 6 guys in nine innings pitched at home. Astros just saw a heavy dose of Harens nasty stuff and now they get to see the low velocity , junk shit that edgar has. His style of pitching does not play well in that ballpark either. The astros have hit gonzalez hard in the past in what is granted a small sample size. The astros send out righthanded jack cassel. The dbacks seem to hit lefties a little better than righties and they just dont have much history to rely on against cassel as they have zero AB against him. Bid advantage for the astro pitcher the first time through the order and by the second time through he should have a lead to pitch behind. he went 5 innings , giving up 7 hits and 3 er in his only start this year in picking up a win in cincinnati. So he has proven he can win on the road and as i stated in the writeup above , the reds are built to hit righties. What i also like is that he didnt walk anyone. He threw strikes... so i think i have a decent chance of getting a nice edge here in this game via the base on balls. The price seems ridiculous ( tired of joe public making money on the dbacks i guess ) and i already played it at +135 so that will also appear in the official plays post.
white sox and white sox over --Trusting some Bonser trends to continue here. He seems to prefer pitching on the road right now ... he has given up 23 hits in 17 innings pitched at home this year and has been touched for 14 runs over that span. If you look back to the end of last year he got pounded at home down the stretch there as well. Now he faces a white sox lineup that has had success against him . The alst time they saw him they touched him for 8 hits and 5 er in 3 innings. Thome , Konerko , uribe and cabrera all bat .300 or better against him. Floyd takes the hill for the white sox and he has been pitching some nice ball but the twins hit him well and i like their lineup more against righties than lefties. I trust Floyd here more than bonser but you still have to take some of gavin's numbers with a grain of salt. he had two really good outings in early april against the tigers when detroit wasnt hitting anyone and then had a good start at baltimore before getting knocked around a bit by the yankees. Still I can't expect Floyd to completely shutdown the opponent given twins past history against him and the fact that twins are the more rested team here. So i played the white sox and the over ..... see the white sox getting 6-8 runs in this one. Note that i have no exactly been on fire when selecting overs.
shorter writeups incoming cause i am getting tired of typing.
rockies -- Have to like the situation and the splits here. Rockies go with cook who owns the giants bats and lincecum faces the rockies lineup which has tagged him a bit in the past. Not a big fan of the "they need a win" philospohy but this game is pretty big for the rockies right now and cook is the most consistent starter in their rotation right now. Thought i might give the under a look here as well given lincecums start to the year but then i saw the posted 7. no thanks there.
tampa/balty over --- orioles hit hammel , not a fan of garret olson. See a lot of baserunners between these two teams and that is just death in that ballpark. Note the "have not seen them" angle that i love for sides and unders applies here with olson. i just hate his control and expect walks. ... lots of pitches , ... runs and an extended look at baltimores bullpen which i feel has overachieved so far.
oakland/angels under -- really want an under 9 to play this. Saunders is pitching really well and the angels havent seen smith yet.
padres -- seems a bit high to me and throw in the likelihood of a rain delay where you lose the starters early in the game and i think there might be value with the padres. maddux has been pitching well save the start in zona after the 22 inning game. how tough was that spot ? would play this with unlisted pitchers if i liked the dog.
boston -- halladay doesnt like fenway and again we have a situation with a possible rain delay that would benefit the red sox. doubt i play this ..... not a lester fan but there are some trends and stats to back a bosox play here.
gl tomorrow gang.
rayer
