Time to post my thursday may 1 baseball

[RetroVK]

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 20-20 -3.17units
dogs 27-18 +15.45units
overs 3-5-1 -2.00 units
unders 14-5-1 +8.33 units


ok only one thing i really like for tomorrow and have capped every single game already * save the wind in chicago*. Have a few leans too but lets look at what i like first. really quick points.


dodgers/marlins under 9.5
---marlins zero AB vs Kuroda
--Dodgers zero AB vs Badenhop
-- Foster behind the plate a heavy under dude
--day game following a night game, might see some guys take rest here. (speculative for sure )
--dodgers poor hitting vs righties , especially on road
--kuroda 1.40 whip
--kuroda has failed to give up more than two earned runs in three away starts
--i like unders in the last game of a series on a travel day

i played that already at 9.5 +100 so it will appear in official plays thread.


leans

cubs under????? --- depending on wind .. but anything not blowing out heavy i would have to consider here. like the umpire ( halion ) for this as well. bullpen depletion is a concern though.

bluejays/bosox over ---- this is more of a gut feel , i capped it out and think the number is solid .... i just FEEL like this is going over. I usually dont bet these kinds of feelings so doubt i play this.

royals --- if they bet the price down i would have to consider backing one of the hotter and better pitchers in the league.

baltimore -- just prefer the starter here more than anything else.

 

[RetroVK]

official plays

dodgers/marlins under 9.5 +100


doubt i make another full unit play tomorrow but maybe i will try a tiny parlay for giggles.

 

[~Utah]

GL VK, If i was a totals player id play the same thing, but im not a totals player

 

[Santacapper]

going with the 'if it aint broke' theory for the most part today with lack of personal AB's vs the starters, but I cant ignore 1.4 and above WHIPS, and 2.00 for Badenhop in his starts this year, and yet to pitch into the 6th.

GL all the same VK

 

[Blue_Chip]

Best of luck, Kyle

The only thing that would scare me on this total is the amount of runs LAD has been putting up on Florida.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Best of health on this one VS, the pitchers & the ump should make this 1 sail over the #. Both pitchers walk alot of batters along with an over ump.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

gl kyle.

 

[caliente]

bol vegas

 

[SportsNut]

:cheers:Good Luck VK .

Was sidetracked earlier but had wanted to post this hopefully it holds up...

LAD day games 8-0 UNDER 2.1 Runs scored .209 avg runs allowed 2.9

LAD vs RHP .257 4.4 runs game( to show how well they hit LHP overall 281 avg 5.1runs)

Key bats out for LAD Loney . Nomar , Kent and Andrum Jones

Key bats out for Fla : Jacobs and Willingham

FLA day games: 3-2 UNDER .228 avg 2.9 runs scored 4.8 runs allowed

vs RHP .266 5.1 runs but two of there 3 top hitters vs RHP out here

at home .233 avg 3.9 runs

I had actually flipped to leaning Florida as you mentioned both teams have not seen either SP. Badenhop was terrible his 1st inning @ Atlanta but realized that was his hometown and maybe he just put to much pressure on cause just 1 run and 3 hits the next 4 innings. Granted he wasnt very good at home vs Wash but that was also his 1st home start I thought maybe he just was abit nervous in both...just a guess.....

Had to pass on the Balt game was offline but damn I wanted to Play TB to score first !

GL:shake:

 

[cashflowmatters]

Very nice call VS :cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

official add on play.....

parlay 20 to win 53 toronto/boston over 9 125 wtih A's +102


Record of this will be kept in my middleattempts/scalps/parlays etc etc section. and will not be reflected in the baseball records section.

Really i just "feel" like the over is coming in here and shortline told me earlier he loves this ump to over so figure what the hell there. And i think you are asking a lot of the pitcher for anaheim tonight so took a shot there. This is somewhat of a sweat bet. There are a lot games to cap for friday and i needed a couple games to follow while i cap for tomorrow...makes the time go faster and i wont get so burned out.. I wouldn't say this is exactly the most disciplined route but its just 1/15 of a normal baseball unit.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

bluejays/bosox over ---- this is more of a gut feel , i capped it out and think the number is solid .... i just FEEL like this is going over. I usually dont bet these kinds of feelings so doubt i play this.

I'm playing it, on the same feel.

 

[tendog]

from reading here on ctg, I like the over a little myself. In fact just put it in in Alex' contest so I think i will follow you on this parlay. Good Luck to us both and am looking forward to reading your thoughts on tomorrow.

 

[RetroVK]

ok a good day 1-0 plus 1.00 units , though i did drop 20 bucks on the "feel" parlay. That parlay has already been reflected in the designated area on my signature.

i like how the game played out for me , and while i dodged a few bullets here and there , i feel like it was capped well.

marlins zero AB against kuroda ---it showed
dodgers zero AB against bradenhop--- they started to hit him third time thru the order.
foster behind the plate -- he was great
might see some guys take rest -- jacobs , willingham ,jeff kent, amazega, loney ......lots of resting.
kuroda failed to give up more than 2 er in 3 away starts -- gave up 3 today.

So feel good about this one today , even though one or two key hits would have made it a hardluck loser.

updated baseball record

<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 20-20 -3.17units
dogs 27-18 +15.45units
overs 3-5-1 -2.00 units
unders 15-5-1 +9.33 units