Time to post my thursday april 24 baseball

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 18-14 +1.62 units
dogs 24-17 +12.95units
overs 2-3-1 -1.00 units
unders 10-3-1 +6.58 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
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ok , just blurbs again today. ...... And I like some favorites today.....


dodgers -- Even if you include the last appearance by Billingsley vs the dbacks , he has impressive numbers against those hitters. And without getting into details there were some extenuating circumstances revolving around that particular game. The Dbacks as a team hit much better against lefties than righties and Billingsley is certainly a quality righty. Meanwhile , the Dodgers have simply beaten the living crap out of edgar gonzalez when they see him and i am getting the feeling that the bats are starting to come around for the dodgers a bit. The dbacks early season rush peaked and i think the dodgers early season slump bottomed.

rockies -- Cook right now is the most consistent guy in the rockies rotation right now. His start at home this year was very impressive and he has good history vs the cubs bats. He is reliable to throw strikes and eat up innings. Very important trait considering the state of the rockies bullpen. Rockies are a different offensive team when they see righthanders and marquis doesnt have the highest quality stuff in the league. The rockies bats historically destroy him and i like colorados chances of bouncing back here with a win

phillies/brewers over 9.5 -- Get two teams that see the opposing pitcher well. Moyer has been knocked about by the brewers and as a general rule the brewers love to see lefties. Get the stuff to junk angle here as well. The brewers just saw Hamels nasty stuff and now they get the soft junk of pre-historic Moyer. Phillies also see suppan well and with that powerful lineup can throw up a crooked number at any time. I like day games for overs as well. Umpire kellogg is historically a neutral umpire in my book but he has started this year with a major lean to the over. 5-0 to the over , more than 8 walks a game , and a strike percentage under 61. Between dogs, favorites , unders and overs ... you will see less overs than anything else from me..... but i like this particular situation

pirates --Gorzelanny > piniero. Pirates starting to regain confidence and the cards are starting to hurt a little as a result of the injuries they started the season with in their starting rotation. Piniero should be long relief. His road starts last year were not impressive and he got slapped in his road start this year as well. Couple that with the fact that the cardinals dont seem to hit lefties anywhere near the way they do righties and i think i got a small edge here at this price. The cardinals lineup has not been the same the last week as what we have seen most of april imho. At some point i expect Gorzelanny to regain the form that most of us expected to see this year. worth the number i am pretty sure.


leans

brewers -- Mentioned some of what i like about them above. also a great home team in general. slight edge in pitching to suppan over moyer in general and a slight edge in the matchup as well. Road trip starting to feel long for the phillies. Enough to lay the chalk though ?

astros -- i like the reds to win but this price is a bit steep i think.

thats what i am looking at so far

gl gang
 
really like the 1st 3 a lot, VK

and imho, torre's to blame for chad's bad start vs AZ this year...in terms of how he was used the outing prior, with the rain.
 
yeah i didnt want to sound like i was making excuses for his last appearance vs Zona but you are right.
 
...... And I like some favorites today....

:36_19_2:

It seems Billingsley/LAD is the CTG consensus play of the day.

Cubbies are overvalued, so I like the Colorado play.

Gorzelanny is a good SP and Pitt is off of a win, but Gorzo has not been 100% healthy for a while now, and you may start seeing him slip before having to take a break to heal.

My only worry with the Phi/Milw over is that I think Moyer has good control, so I would not be surprised to see him keep the Brewers bats under control for 5-6 or so innings. I think Philly can get to Suppan though.

Also, you bet the Yanks last night, what do you think about fading them today? And how about Boston avenging yesterday's loss? Boston + day game + Fenway = (usually) success. Boston called up Masterson for today. Isn't there an angle with pitchers that are just called up? Something about the rest of the team trying harder to back the new guy?

GL vk
 
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Philly Milw Over seems very reasonable but Moyer can be tough at times. Like Blue Chip said he has good control.

Def see value in Houston.

GL Man
 
Thanks for the good luck fellas.

Gorzelanny -- Great young arm , i have to give the organization some credit that his ailment isnt all that serious. Otherwise starting him , while he has not pitched particularly great to start the year , doesnt seem to make sense. It takes so little though to alter the effectiveness of these starting pitchers thogh... so it is a concern.

As far as the total goes ... you will notice that i have a lean for the brewers in this game .. so my real concern lies with the philles ( minus rollins and victorino ) getting theirs ... of course my other concern is going over 10 in a game where i lean to 8.5 innings played. Brewers seem capable of getting to just about any lefty at this point. And we are talking the national "free out" league with a high total which is also scary.
Both teams have great history vs the opposing pitcher heading into this one though. My least favorite of the official plays that are incoming

astros -- i just couldnt bet them. i think there is probably a slight value with them at that number though. I didnt like it enough last night and now the price is ten cents worse for the astros side so i have to lay off.

official plays post incoming

white sox -- they just missed the cut today.... but yeah if i had to play that game , they would be the side.

bosox --I think there is an angle to the team playing hard for the "called up" guy as well as the fact that the opponent has never seen the guy pitch so they dont have much to go on. Not a huge saunders fan either. In the case of masterson i just dont have enough information to make a confident decision regarding my money. Would be hard for me to argue with anyone who bet either side.
 
Just a heads up bro but Ryan Howard is expected to get the day off today in Milw..which for me makes Milw more enticing but it might come into play for the over...:shake:
 
yeah i am getting a bit uneasy with that over bet gang. line has moved against me as far as getting off of the game goes ... no chance to side or middle the thing.

when i say i saw that howard was getting the day off , i meant that i saw that he MIGHT be getting the day off. Early indications this morning are that he actually is. Obviously , this is not the best case scenario for an over. Forced into sticking with the bet , but for the rest of you , i suggest checking the starting lineups today prior to making this bet.

Usually a concern with these early morning starts ... day game after afternoon/night and managers like to rest people... especially at the end of road trips like this.
 
i hear ya. i wouldn't worry too much about howard. he has 6 hits in the last 10 games and is 0/3 (means nothing) against Suppan. I would be concerned with that lineup as a whole though. I just don't like it with no speed, and with werthless at the top of the order. That being said, I could see Mil putting up a snowman
 
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i hear ya. i wouldn't worry too much about howard. he has 6 hits in the last 10 games and is 0/3 (means nothing) against Suppan. I would be concerned with that lineup as a whole though. I just don't like it with no speed, and with werthless at the top of the order. That being said, I could see Mil putting up a snowman

which is greater for a brewer bet than a total bet over 10. His exclusion from the lineup would also make the likelihood of a brewer win greater which hurts me as far as getting an AB in the bottom of the ninth inning as well.
Hell, i am stuck with the bet , and its not like i hate it or anything. I think it is still the correct side... just uneasy now and since i am recommending the play to others , i want to be sure they know i am uneasy.
 
I think Colorado might be my favorite play on the board today.

Cook should keep the teddy bears in check, while Chicago will put out a SP Colorado could/should get to. Cubbies been hot, yet Vegas places a -1.30 price tag on the Rockies? This is telling me something... but what do I know?
 
I think Colorado might be my favorite play on the board today.

Cook should keep the teddy bears in check, while Chicago will put out a SP Colorado could/should get to. Cubbies been hot, yet Vegas places a -1.30 price tag on the Rockies? This is telling me something... but what do I know?

I wouldnt use price as an indicator...the game was about -110 yesterday maybe Cubbies few cent fav by close..Hill worth more then Marquis and Cook worth a decent amount more then Morales. Line makes sense to me...but I do like Col...
 
i like colorado as well bluechip. Agree with your assessment that marquis is the perfect type of pitcher for rockies to get to.

also agree with you nut , i think the price is about where i expected the linesmakers to put it.
 
I stated in a previous thread that the Cards will likely get swept by Pitt so I would endorse your play there.. GL
 
Opposite on 1 game. The Dodgers like everyone do beat up on Gonzalez pitching at home where he is 4-9. He is 6-5 for Arizona on the road with 8 quality starts and only 2 bad ones. Billingsley is a good pitcher but not dominant. His result at home is 10-8. Davidson the ump is no fan of chalk home favorites. Arizona after a loss has a win rate of.667 to the Dodgers win rate after a win of .333. I give an edge to the Arizona pen. Colorado is coming in tomorrow for the Dodgers the team that has beaten them 7 straight. Honestly it is not clear to me who should be favored tonight. However that comes from someone currently 1-2 on the day. BOL
 
Colorado was a good start after our talk yesterday!

I just need to stay patient and bet for the right reasons... GL w/ the Bucs and dodgers
 
BOL tonight vk - haven't really dug into the card yet so I gotta get started but the dodgers jumped out at me because I love fading Edgar Gonzalez... shame he won't be a starter much longer with Max Scherzer lurking.
 
ok , not the kind of day we were looking for , going 1-3 minus 2.41 units. Really nothing all that exciting to talk about , i was on the wrong side of all three losers. Perhaps worse is that i had a terrible day with all my unposted leans as well. Just one of those days i hope and not a trend moving forward.

pirates -- gorzelanny had great stuff today but that doesnt matter when you walk 7 guys !!!!!!! Piniero threw a better game and the cards deserved victory.

rockies -- finally the rockies were beneficiaries of late runs. Have not examined this game and didnt get to watch it so dont really know how this went down.

phillies/brewers over -- wrong side. never really had a chance. Really just not enough hitting in the game to expect it to go over and when you couple that with horrendous , baserunning from the brewers and a series of double plays from the phillies ... the under has even less of a shot.

dodgers -- Defense was the difference in the game. Rightfielder misplays a flyball and the next guy homers , kent fails to touch second base on a fielders choice, garciaparra and kent fail to turn a routine dp and a run scores ... meanwhile Arizona is holding dodgers to singles off the wall and then turning a magnificent dp. Defense aside , when i lay a price that big i expect a better performance than that ... in other words ... the dbacks as the game played out just played better tonight than the dodgers.

-------Note to self ( 5 cents diff dodg )--------

updated baseball record
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 19-16 +0.21units
dogs 24-17 +12.95units
overs 2-4-1 -2.00 units
unders 10-3-1 +6.58 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
heheh nope ... we bet them when we perceive value. Thats the only way to do it.

As a general rule ,,,,, i am gonna have teams like the pirates , giants , nats ... a lot ... because those crappy teams are the ones the public wont bet and therefore they are usually the ones with value.

gorzellanny couldnt find the zone today... and not hitting piniero is unfathomable. Laroche finally got a meaningful hit atleast.

they do suck though hehehe
 
yup .. he is pitching like a demon .. but everyone seems to know about him .. the lines havent been that valuable .... well maybe in retrospect they have hehe.
 
dont like a single side... have a couple totals i like but waiting for the "stalk the ump" stuff before i lock in. Wrong umpires may mean a day off for me.
 
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