RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 22-20 -2.17units
dogs 28-19 +15.45units
overs 4-5-2 -1.00 units
unders 16-6-1 +9.08 units
ok here is what i am looking at for tomorrow. i bolded any likely plays and shrunk any that i am confident i wont be playing but felt like commenting on.
giants/phillies over ---i see it at 7.5. Day game in that park ? hoye only calling 60 percent strikes. Still these are two stud pitchers in a close out the series game.. You gots to have pretty big stones to go under here. I wont be playing this game or total , just mention it because i was suprised when i saw the posted total
cardinals -- stlouis hits marquis really well and the cubs have only seen wellemeyer for 9 AB. The cards have a very nice .386 lifetime obp vs marquis in 115 AB. Most of the guys in the cardinal lineup see him well. Marquis has pitched well on the road .... giving up 2 in philly over 5 innings and 2 in colorado over 7 innings. But he sort of did it with mirrors , his whip in those two games was 1.58. So he pitched out of some trouble. In three starts in stlouis last year he had one brilliant start, one horrendous start and one average start. So not much to go on there. Marquis has gone 7, 6, 5 1/3 , 5 and 5 innings in his five starts this year ...... so the cubs bullpen comes into play for certain.
Wellemeyer has allowed just 1 er in two of his three home starts ( 4 in the other ). Wellemeyer has a 1.19 whip this year and opponents are hitting just .237 off him. It has carried over from last year as far as his day/night splits. In 2007 he had a day ERA of 5.89 and had an opponent batting average of .317. This was in sharp contrast to his 4.13 ERA and .231 average against at night in the same year. You will find even more dramatic numbers in 2006. Prior to that he was strictly relief. With just 9 AB against him the cubs should struggle early in the game to get to him ... and I like Larussa with a lead. Wellemeyer has gone 6 or more innings in 5 of 6 starts. So it looks like we rate to get one extra inning from our starter compared to theirs .... thats one extra inning of bullpen pitching. Price is ok for the home team here and i will likely bite.
padres -- they have this price at -130 where i am looking now. They want marlin money. This is one of those games where i have a "feeling" that maddux and company grind out a win. No way in hell I lay the 130 though on the road with this team vs a lefty though.... and besides ... my "feeling bets" dont hit as well as a fully capped game does. wont be playing this either but the books are begging for marlin money ... be careful.
pirates/nats under --- like both pitchers in snell and redding. A lot of folks made not of the number of consecutive lefties that pitt has seen lately and perhaps i didnt factor that in enough for yesterdays losing under bet. But if that were the case then the fact that a quality righty is on the hill for the nats should pay heavy dividends. After seeing how the ball carried all over the park in a day affair yesterday .... i am gonna sit back and watch in this spot. Really , i am just not confident yet in how this ball park plays as a general rule. Pirate games have been an over machine as well... just a few things keeping me off what otherwise looks like a promising under. maybe use in one of my silly, always losing 20 dollar parlays but it wont cut the mustard for a unit play.
under chisox/bjays ---Two pitchers with good stuff vs two lineups that refuse to produce runs. Roy has a 1.07 whip which is pretty impressive when he has faced boston twice, texas twice , the yanks and TB, Chisox just arent hitting like those teams right now. Halladay has actually pitched worse at home than on the road however/ You should absolutely forgive him for his home start against the rangers though... they had just seen him 5 days prior. Always tough spot for a pitcher when that happens. For whatever reason , Halladay is just getting little run support this year...in his four losses the bjays have scored a combined 7 runs. 5 0f halladays 6 starts have resulted in a total of 8 runs or less being scored combined by both teams. The concern lies in the fact that the guys in the white sox lineup have hit halladay decently and as i stated in the preseason, i dont think the 2008 version of halladay is the same as years past ( he has been proving me wrong though ). The white sox bat .281 with an obp of .351 vs halladay. not bad at all. The two starts he had vs the white sox last year point to an under. he won 2-0 at home and lost 2-0 in chicago. He pitched a combined 15 innings , iving up 16 hits and allowing just 2 er. In his six starts this year Halladay has thrown atleast 95 pitches in all of them. He will eat innings for us. Contreras takes the mound for the white sox. 1.36 whip and i have always liked him when he is an underdog like this. The bjays as a team bat just .257 vs him but the obp is a whopping .355 ... meaning he is walking them a lot. A few of the key guys really hit him well also .. . He pitched average the last time he faced the bjays only allowing 2 er but he allowed a lot of baserunners that game too. I hate going under posted 8 in the american league. Teetering back and forth as to whether to play this or not .... which usually means i wont
so looks like one play for tomorrow probably. .. maybe that under in canada too .. we'll see.
gl gang:tiphat:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 22-20 -2.17units
dogs 28-19 +15.45units
overs 4-5-2 -1.00 units
unders 16-6-1 +9.08 units
ok here is what i am looking at for tomorrow. i bolded any likely plays and shrunk any that i am confident i wont be playing but felt like commenting on.
giants/phillies over ---i see it at 7.5. Day game in that park ? hoye only calling 60 percent strikes. Still these are two stud pitchers in a close out the series game.. You gots to have pretty big stones to go under here. I wont be playing this game or total , just mention it because i was suprised when i saw the posted total
cardinals -- stlouis hits marquis really well and the cubs have only seen wellemeyer for 9 AB. The cards have a very nice .386 lifetime obp vs marquis in 115 AB. Most of the guys in the cardinal lineup see him well. Marquis has pitched well on the road .... giving up 2 in philly over 5 innings and 2 in colorado over 7 innings. But he sort of did it with mirrors , his whip in those two games was 1.58. So he pitched out of some trouble. In three starts in stlouis last year he had one brilliant start, one horrendous start and one average start. So not much to go on there. Marquis has gone 7, 6, 5 1/3 , 5 and 5 innings in his five starts this year ...... so the cubs bullpen comes into play for certain.
Wellemeyer has allowed just 1 er in two of his three home starts ( 4 in the other ). Wellemeyer has a 1.19 whip this year and opponents are hitting just .237 off him. It has carried over from last year as far as his day/night splits. In 2007 he had a day ERA of 5.89 and had an opponent batting average of .317. This was in sharp contrast to his 4.13 ERA and .231 average against at night in the same year. You will find even more dramatic numbers in 2006. Prior to that he was strictly relief. With just 9 AB against him the cubs should struggle early in the game to get to him ... and I like Larussa with a lead. Wellemeyer has gone 6 or more innings in 5 of 6 starts. So it looks like we rate to get one extra inning from our starter compared to theirs .... thats one extra inning of bullpen pitching. Price is ok for the home team here and i will likely bite.
padres -- they have this price at -130 where i am looking now. They want marlin money. This is one of those games where i have a "feeling" that maddux and company grind out a win. No way in hell I lay the 130 though on the road with this team vs a lefty though.... and besides ... my "feeling bets" dont hit as well as a fully capped game does. wont be playing this either but the books are begging for marlin money ... be careful.
pirates/nats under --- like both pitchers in snell and redding. A lot of folks made not of the number of consecutive lefties that pitt has seen lately and perhaps i didnt factor that in enough for yesterdays losing under bet. But if that were the case then the fact that a quality righty is on the hill for the nats should pay heavy dividends. After seeing how the ball carried all over the park in a day affair yesterday .... i am gonna sit back and watch in this spot. Really , i am just not confident yet in how this ball park plays as a general rule. Pirate games have been an over machine as well... just a few things keeping me off what otherwise looks like a promising under. maybe use in one of my silly, always losing 20 dollar parlays but it wont cut the mustard for a unit play.
under chisox/bjays ---Two pitchers with good stuff vs two lineups that refuse to produce runs. Roy has a 1.07 whip which is pretty impressive when he has faced boston twice, texas twice , the yanks and TB, Chisox just arent hitting like those teams right now. Halladay has actually pitched worse at home than on the road however/ You should absolutely forgive him for his home start against the rangers though... they had just seen him 5 days prior. Always tough spot for a pitcher when that happens. For whatever reason , Halladay is just getting little run support this year...in his four losses the bjays have scored a combined 7 runs. 5 0f halladays 6 starts have resulted in a total of 8 runs or less being scored combined by both teams. The concern lies in the fact that the guys in the white sox lineup have hit halladay decently and as i stated in the preseason, i dont think the 2008 version of halladay is the same as years past ( he has been proving me wrong though ). The white sox bat .281 with an obp of .351 vs halladay. not bad at all. The two starts he had vs the white sox last year point to an under. he won 2-0 at home and lost 2-0 in chicago. He pitched a combined 15 innings , iving up 16 hits and allowing just 2 er. In his six starts this year Halladay has thrown atleast 95 pitches in all of them. He will eat innings for us. Contreras takes the mound for the white sox. 1.36 whip and i have always liked him when he is an underdog like this. The bjays as a team bat just .257 vs him but the obp is a whopping .355 ... meaning he is walking them a lot. A few of the key guys really hit him well also .. . He pitched average the last time he faced the bjays only allowing 2 er but he allowed a lot of baserunners that game too. I hate going under posted 8 in the american league. Teetering back and forth as to whether to play this or not .... which usually means i wont
so looks like one play for tomorrow probably. .. maybe that under in canada too .. we'll see.
gl gang:tiphat:
