Time to post my sunday april 6 baseball

[RetroVK]

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 5-0 +5.00
dogs 6-7 +0.63
overs 1-0 +1.00
unders 1-0-1 +1.

ok ..... here is what i am looking at for tomorrow in mlb

nationals +130 -- some quick reasons behind this play, sorry for slightly less detail than normal.

-Cards have never seen this kid pitch before. not a single hitter has. huge edge for the pitcher first time thru the lineup.

-Lannan pitched very well last year on the road. .........23.1 innings pitched , 23 hits , 9 er.

- Ok , now those numbers are pretty good for a young guy on the road ... but they are even better if you remove his first ever game pitched in his life at the phillies. May have had understandable jitters there but after that game he really settled down, twice holding opponents to just 1 run over 7 innings on the road. And allowing just 3 earned in his other road start , though short innings pitched in that one.

-Lannan is a bigtime groundball pitcher and that plays well i think in this park and somewhat neutralizes the right handed power of cards.

-Lohse is very inconsistent. So while he has the ability to go out and shut down teams now and then he also has shown the ability to blow up completely

-Lohse recent form against the nationals is just horrendous. 2007 vs nats 16.2 innings , 22 hits , 17 runs allowed. ouch.

-Lohse can be chased out. in nine of his 32 starts he failed to pitch 5 innings.

-lohse gave up 4 er or more in 14 of 32 starts and in two of three starts vs the nats


think there is some value here with lannan. if lohse comes out tomorrow and pitches like he did the first time he pitched then i will likely lose and tip my hat to the guy.




In other news , i will likely be all over the mariners tomorrow.

Also looking at verlander -1.5 as a possible play home to beuhrle. luckily i have avoided betting on the tigers so far ,,,, and they are my preseason and current pick to win the world series. mark my words gang , the tigers take it all after starting 0-5.

 

[RetroVK]

official plays



mariners -125 ( hernandez ) pitchers listed ( guthrie )
nationals +124 ( lannan ) pitchers listed ( lohse )


good luck to everyone

 

[STEED]

as always, good luck bro

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck with the Mariners

 

[reNew Orleans]

looks good to me, BOL vk :shake:

 

[Dmoney416]

With you on Felix, clueless on Hannan though. BOL today VK.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Rick Ankiel... who would've guessed.

lannan and felix pitched well, sometimes the results just don't go your way, nothing you can do about that. and a wild pitch scores a run? esh bad luck vk

 

[RetroVK]

ok not a good day. Felix did his job but guthrie also pitched very well and after hernandez left after 8 shutout innings ahead 2-0 i felt pretty good obviously. the bullpen choked away another great effort from felix giving up 3 in the bottom of the ninth for the 3-2 defeat. Wont be the first time the bullpen does me in ( in fact last time hernandez pitched i bet under 9 runs and he gave up zero earned runs in 7 innings ...only to watch a 1-1 tie going into the eighth end up falling on 9 runs ).

tip my hat to lohse. As i said ... if he pitches that way again ...... got what i wanted from lannan ... in fact more .... lohse was just better today and ankiel has been just killing it to start the year.

todays result is 0-2 , for a loss of 2.25 units... not what the doctor ordered.

the mariners game also marked the first loss this year when laying juice. good luck to everyone in remaining action.


updated baseball record

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 5-1 +3.75
dogs 6-8 -0.37
overs 1-0 +1.00
unders 1-0-1 +1.

 

[RetroVK]

yes renew... lohse just pitched lights out .. he is capable of doing that. no bad luck there .. just great pitching.

seattle hurt... not gonna lie .... but the season is long and we make a lot of bets .. sometimes bad stuff will happen .. hopefully good stuff happens on occasion as well.

Saw how great your day was renew !

 

[RetroVK]

atleast the reds won to help the future bet along .. hehe small silver lining

 

[reNew Orleans]

the reds got some serious pitching

 

[SportsNut]

hey VK , since you recap your day these always a few things I notice . One i sthat STL for the past year or two has been exceptional in day games but also versus LHP. Notice they swept Wash and faced 3 LHPs. With Seattle it s a good play but the problem is the bullpen is miserable. Understandably I know you feel this way after the game but even before Putz went down they had injuries and really didnt have much of anything out there. Take away Putz and they actually have nothing and no one who can get outs consistently. So maybe ONLy 1st 5 INNING plays for them..I had CIncy today because what little I read about CIncy was the rave reviews that Cueto and Volquez recieved during the Spring. SInce Cueto was well beyond my expectations I felt as a honme dog Volquez was worth a flier since Myers is still probably adjustinghimself to being a SP again and he was never the most conistent guy to begin with...

Anyway look forward to your Monday stuff. So far from what I have seen we generally agree and have a similiar thought process...always good to have someone you respect reinforce your opinions makes it easier to follow through in placing the plays:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

i expect the worst bullpen in the league to closeout 2-0 leads when having to pitch just 1 inning. Hear what you are saying though. What would ahve been nice was some insurance runs at some point in that game but guthrie and company pitched well. I make that bet again tomorrow if i could

good points on stlouis in day games ... might not have researched that well enough ... only so much time in a day hehe. Also make a good point about the left handed pitchers and wins for the cards ... maybe something to look for down the road ..... though Lannan did his job vs their bats today ... couldnt ecpect more out of him really than just allowing 2.

guthrie and lohse pitched great today and i had a bullpen blowup .. likely one of the worst ninth the M's will have all year with a 2 run lead. Some days are better than others ... today didnt go like i would have hoped. water under the bridge and on to tomorrow.

great points on cincy. i actually leaned slightly to the phils today but you were definitely right .. volquez may be better than i had even hoped for.

thanks for the words and hopefully by sharing some angles we can help eachother make more money than we otherwise would.

gl manana ....i know i will need some when you see who i am betting.

 

[SportsNut]

Trust me when I say this THANKFULLY I was uninvolved in that Sea-Balt game because I had won the 1st two games backing Balt and simply passed as I couldnt figure out why Felix was so cheap here. I saw it happeneing ( the unraveling) in the 9th inning and my 1st thought was wow thats a terrible way to lose and I feel bad for anyone who had Seattle not knowing you did. All I was trying to say is I faded SEA partly the 1st two games of the series because of there pen though it diodnt come to play it was something I had made a note of. ML relievers should close out games but I also got burned yesterday when there PEN shit the bed and lost my under 9. So I have been torched by them as well in a sense. There pen is terrible and when you look at them indivually its worse then terrible. There is no exaggerating just how bad SEA pen is. Its about the equivalent and maybe worse then the team the MIAMI HEAT "fields" in the NBA.

First I wasnt knocking anything about your play so understand that I am just trying to impress how bad the situation is in SEA.

Mark Lowe is there closer supposedly . Why didnt they allow him to start the 9th inning? This was definetly his 1st ML save opportunity why add more pressure and gamble he might come in with MOB? Bad move my McLaren IMO. Second Lowe is there new closer how bout getting him some work. A week deep and he has pitched 2/3 of innings this season in B2B outings he went 1/3 of an inning and last pitched on Tuesday ! How sharp is anyone with 2/3 of an inning in a week let alone someone with his experience level and he is pitching on the road . Again that goes back to being a good manager and putting your players in positions to succeed. Now I understand O'Flaherty is LH and all that matchups jazz but he hadnt pitched since 4/1 either and both his early appearances werent very good and he hasnt had success vs BALT in limited work. So why think he gets it done here?


rest of the PIGpen ..Baek and Rowland Smith pitched just once this year and were scored upon. Baek has really only made a couple relief appearances in his career and Rowland Smioth was medicore at best last year. Sean Green again medicore at best last year was okay in his 2 lone appearances...Corcoran has a couple scoreless appearances and has never done much of anything to impress anyone..so he isnt getting any important innings just yet..

So when your pen is :

Mark Lowe
Sean Green
Ching Baek
Ray Corcoran
and
O'Flaherty
Rowland Smith from the LH side

your in FUCKING trouble and probably should allow Batista to close and Baek to start until you find some answers and maybe get Putz back.

Last year they had Morrow , Sherrill and Putz as there late innings guy and there middle relievers were shaky at best..there numbers were good and excellent if you take out Morrow

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=right>Putz 68 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>6 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>1 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>40 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>71.2 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>37 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>11 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>11 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>6 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>13 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>82 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=ysptblclbg6 align=right>1.38 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0.70 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>.153 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Sherrill</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>73 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>2 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>3 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>45.2 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>28 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>12 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>12 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>4 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>17 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>56 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=ysptblclbg6 align=right>2.36 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0.99 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>.179 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=right>Morrow 60 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>3 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>4 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>0 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>63.1 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>56 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>29 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>29 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>3 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>50 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>66 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=ysptblclbg6 align=right>4.12 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>1.67 </TD><TD class=yspscores align=right></TD><TD class=yspscores align=right>.243 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



So what I am saying there pen is a monumental disaster and I couldnt back SEA till its get addressed unless they are fat dogs.

There current 6 arms had 271.1 innings 285 hits 147 runs 138 earned 16HRS allowed 106 BBS and 199 Ks and Corcoran wasnt in the ML last year his previous stats only make this look good. Nothing like a pen that puts 1.50 MOB and that was in no pressure situations...

The thing with capping is you can nail one aspect of a game so well but its always only one part of the equation and again not knocking anything just sharing my opinion. You made great calls with Lannan and Hernandez on the hill. Who wouldnt to have there guy pitch like that? Its ashame as you said the rest of the team couldnt do there role. I tend to think if the team couldnt pickup the slack today they wont tmrw and sort of sticky that in my brain until it changes. Cause no matter how well we see something it still about the overall play of the team.

With STL sometimes the trend find a way to continue rather then have actual basis for . STL doesnt exactly have a great lineup to put against LHP but they won all 3 vs Wash and were up 5-1 on Jeff Francis in the 3rd inning when it was called so good chance they would already be 4-0 vs lefties. The cards pitching has allowed just 13 runs in 6 games!! Somehow they are getting it done and at some point it will change but looks good at the moment. Checking back I may have been thinking about 2 season ago as they were just 12-13 at home vs LHp but they were 16-8-1 UNDER in those games and maybe that was the trend I was thinking of as you said such much shit so little time.

Good stuff just bring up some under the surface crap we can maybe take advantage:shake: off..

 

[SportsNut]

You can pitch a NO-Hitter and still lose ..is kinda my point about the great SP will the undesired end results..

 

[RetroVK]

great post !

your points about the seattle bullpen are completely valid. In fact this wasnt the fist time in this young season that they cost me money ... see my under 9 bet hernandez vs texas.

They are hurting no doubt right now in the pen. I guess that i disagree about the manager making a mistake bringing in O'flaherty because that is what i would have done too. With markakis, millar , huff due up in the ninth ..... i go with the lefty to get the two most important outs of the inning in markakis and huff. See what you are saying about defining roles in the bullpen , getting the guy work , adding pressure on him with men on base but i think O'flaherty was the right choice to put in for the save ... it jsut didnt work out.

I don't think i whined much about it ... its part of baseball ... and certainly the bullpen is the most difficult part of baseball to handicap mostly because of what we are discussing now .... we are never sure who will come in for relief .. we can check availability and make assumptions but in the end the manager makes situational decisions. I was on the wrong side of two bets today ... one i would bet again ( seattle ) and one i might reconsider ( nats ). I am wrong quite often though ... just hope to be right more times .

gl nut.

hmmmm reread some of this and it reads like i am being defensive ... certainly not my intent.

 

[SportsNut]

All good VK...:shake::cheers:

Going back to the pen discussion. Definetly no right or wrong. I see why you would like to a have LH pitch that situation its just if he doesnt get Markakis your stuck with him vs Millar so he can pitch to Huff . O'Flaherty flat out never impressed me and his splits arent very good vs BALT 3 2/3 inn 5 hits 3 runs 5bbs 1K in 5 games so he couldnt have been to successful vs them. Second is he allowed a hit and run in his 1st outing and the next he went 2/3 of an inning allowing 3 hits and 2 runs. So wanst like he was looking sharp going in. You have one power arm in your pen at the moment and thats Lowe who I believe throws about 95. Thats what I recall from 06. Just let it ride with him . Markakis gets on you chances are great of retiring Millar and maybe even a DP ball. Markakis and Huff were 1/3 with 2 bbs vs him so they got on 3 of 5 atbats vs him. Lowe holds LH to a 214 clip and he did walk 5 vs 9ks in his career but RH only 170 off him.

I am the guy who likes power arms and would rather live or die with one of them I guess is what it boils down to ..

All done back to Monday..