RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 26-21 +0.82 units
dogs 28-22 +12.45units
overs 4-5-2 -1.00 units
unders 18-6-1 +11.18 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
okily dokily ... like a few things tomorrow. got some quick blurbs for each contest explaining kind of what i am thinking.
reds plus one million or whatever the price is --- Reds are coming off an offensive explosion of 7 homeruns in their last game and i think the long ball is the one weakness that johan has shown to start the year. Belisle should be imrpoving as he rounds back into form and does have some history of success against these mets in new york. last year he went 7 innings , giving up just 1 run in defeat. A similar effort gives us a more than decent chance here. The reds cannot hit lefties for crap and i still expect the mets to win but i dont have to win this bet very many times to turn a profit. It's baseball folks ...
indians --cleveland is starting to play better baseball and i look for that to continue here. Laffey has been both excellent and hardluck so far to start the year. This will be his third start and his third start at home. In his last start vs kc he pitched 7 innings of 4 hit baseball allowing 1 run and zero earned runs. Prior to that against the yankees he was also cruising before the yankees had a big inning against him. But check out how the inning played out ...............
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead><TD>Aaron Laffey pitching for Cleveland</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">NYY</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">CLE</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>M Cabrera reached on infield single to shortstop.</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>D Jeter reached on infield single to third, M Cabrera to second.</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>B Abreu singled to left center, M Cabrera to third, D Jeter to second.</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>A Rodriguez hit by pitch, M Cabrera scored, D Jeter to third, B Abreu to second.</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>J Giambi grounded out to first, D Jeter scored, B Abreu to third, A Rodriguez to second.</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>H Matsui grounded out to first, B Abreu scored, A Rodriguez to third.</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>J Lewis relieved A Laffey.</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>M Ensberg reached on infield single to third, A Rodriguez scored.</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>R Cano grounded out to second.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Only one ball made it to the outfield. He induced the necessary groundballs to get out of trouble a lot of the time too but excellent situational hitting by the yanks as they hit it to the right side of the infield each time. So this guy sports a 2.84 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP but it could actually be even better than that. The bjays have not had a single AB against Laffey either ... and one would think that might hurt them here as they are struggling like hell so far to start the year when they face a lefty. Now , they did see sabathia yesterday so it is back to back lefties here but as i was saying ... they bat .219 vs lefties so far this year and i am not sure that includes yesterdays numbers. For all that good news i think more arrives in that mcgowan takes the hill for the bjays. I am on record as liking this guy but so are the indians. Not a huge sample size but they are batting .313 off him to date with 5 extra base hits in 32 AB. McGowan has also been hardluck this year as he has yet to get more than 3 runs of support in any of his 7 starts. He has been far less effective on the road as compared to home however and a lot of that has been due to walks. Laffey throws more strikes than mcgowan or atleast appears to do so more consistently thus far. This could be a concern because we have an umpire here who i think is a pretty decent OVER fella.. Solid guy , no doubt, but this appears to be a tougher spot than some of his others. I am going with the indians here. i lean under here but the posted number coupled with the mcgowan vs this lineup numbers leaves me fearful. Throw in Marquez calling the game and i prefer the side.
tiring as i usually do in these writeups......
astros/dodgers under --- If you have not figured it out yet .... i have a man crush on Billingsley. I think I made a bad bet earlier in the year on him when he was at home to edgar gonzalez but i dont hold that against him here. The guy has electric stuff and his strikeouts enable him to get out of a lot of jams where others allow runs. I wont play him here cause the price is too high for me but i can and will bet the under. the astros bat just 122 off of him and the two main rbi guys in berkman/lee are a combined 1 of 13. I will bite on that. Also Billingsley has allowed 1 er in each of his last two starts ... and rates to do similar here. Sampson is no billingsley but he is adequate. First thing he has going for him is that he throws with his right hand. The dodgers are batting an incredible .050 points worse vs righties as compared to lefties. The .263 they bat is ok i guess but a far cry from when they see southpaws. As it is , historically the dodgers bat just .241 off of sampson. We get tim welke behind the dish and he has a strike zone i really like as an under bettor. And while i was unwilling to lay that big of a price on billingsley you have to think that the dodgers win this one more times than not ... so we are likely 8.5 innings of play here too.
saunders/kazmir under ---- kazmir needed the start .. i think when johan santana left the american league that kazmir inherited my tag as the nastiest lefty in the league. Expect a lot from him here. Need innings as i dont trust the bullpen .. maybe under first five is better. shrug. Saunders comes in with a 1.10 whip against a team that has not seen him pitch. ( except bartlett ). I do consider culbreth a slight over umpire which is a concern given kazmir control. Straightforward play here as the -130 price tag tells me that the books expect kazmir to be good.
i will be on all of those plays and will post the actual numbers when i get on here tomorrow.
gl gang
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 26-21 +0.82 units
dogs 28-22 +12.45units
overs 4-5-2 -1.00 units
unders 18-6-1 +11.18 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
okily dokily ... like a few things tomorrow. got some quick blurbs for each contest explaining kind of what i am thinking.
reds plus one million or whatever the price is --- Reds are coming off an offensive explosion of 7 homeruns in their last game and i think the long ball is the one weakness that johan has shown to start the year. Belisle should be imrpoving as he rounds back into form and does have some history of success against these mets in new york. last year he went 7 innings , giving up just 1 run in defeat. A similar effort gives us a more than decent chance here. The reds cannot hit lefties for crap and i still expect the mets to win but i dont have to win this bet very many times to turn a profit. It's baseball folks ...
indians --cleveland is starting to play better baseball and i look for that to continue here. Laffey has been both excellent and hardluck so far to start the year. This will be his third start and his third start at home. In his last start vs kc he pitched 7 innings of 4 hit baseball allowing 1 run and zero earned runs. Prior to that against the yankees he was also cruising before the yankees had a big inning against him. But check out how the inning played out ...............
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead><TD>Aaron Laffey pitching for Cleveland</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">NYY</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">CLE</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>M Cabrera reached on infield single to shortstop.</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>D Jeter reached on infield single to third, M Cabrera to second.</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>B Abreu singled to left center, M Cabrera to third, D Jeter to second.</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>A Rodriguez hit by pitch, M Cabrera scored, D Jeter to third, B Abreu to second.</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>J Giambi grounded out to first, D Jeter scored, B Abreu to third, A Rodriguez to second.</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>H Matsui grounded out to first, B Abreu scored, A Rodriguez to third.</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>J Lewis relieved A Laffey.</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>M Ensberg reached on infield single to third, A Rodriguez scored.</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>R Cano grounded out to second.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Only one ball made it to the outfield. He induced the necessary groundballs to get out of trouble a lot of the time too but excellent situational hitting by the yanks as they hit it to the right side of the infield each time. So this guy sports a 2.84 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP but it could actually be even better than that. The bjays have not had a single AB against Laffey either ... and one would think that might hurt them here as they are struggling like hell so far to start the year when they face a lefty. Now , they did see sabathia yesterday so it is back to back lefties here but as i was saying ... they bat .219 vs lefties so far this year and i am not sure that includes yesterdays numbers. For all that good news i think more arrives in that mcgowan takes the hill for the bjays. I am on record as liking this guy but so are the indians. Not a huge sample size but they are batting .313 off him to date with 5 extra base hits in 32 AB. McGowan has also been hardluck this year as he has yet to get more than 3 runs of support in any of his 7 starts. He has been far less effective on the road as compared to home however and a lot of that has been due to walks. Laffey throws more strikes than mcgowan or atleast appears to do so more consistently thus far. This could be a concern because we have an umpire here who i think is a pretty decent OVER fella.. Solid guy , no doubt, but this appears to be a tougher spot than some of his others. I am going with the indians here. i lean under here but the posted number coupled with the mcgowan vs this lineup numbers leaves me fearful. Throw in Marquez calling the game and i prefer the side.
tiring as i usually do in these writeups......
astros/dodgers under --- If you have not figured it out yet .... i have a man crush on Billingsley. I think I made a bad bet earlier in the year on him when he was at home to edgar gonzalez but i dont hold that against him here. The guy has electric stuff and his strikeouts enable him to get out of a lot of jams where others allow runs. I wont play him here cause the price is too high for me but i can and will bet the under. the astros bat just 122 off of him and the two main rbi guys in berkman/lee are a combined 1 of 13. I will bite on that. Also Billingsley has allowed 1 er in each of his last two starts ... and rates to do similar here. Sampson is no billingsley but he is adequate. First thing he has going for him is that he throws with his right hand. The dodgers are batting an incredible .050 points worse vs righties as compared to lefties. The .263 they bat is ok i guess but a far cry from when they see southpaws. As it is , historically the dodgers bat just .241 off of sampson. We get tim welke behind the dish and he has a strike zone i really like as an under bettor. And while i was unwilling to lay that big of a price on billingsley you have to think that the dodgers win this one more times than not ... so we are likely 8.5 innings of play here too.
saunders/kazmir under ---- kazmir needed the start .. i think when johan santana left the american league that kazmir inherited my tag as the nastiest lefty in the league. Expect a lot from him here. Need innings as i dont trust the bullpen .. maybe under first five is better. shrug. Saunders comes in with a 1.10 whip against a team that has not seen him pitch. ( except bartlett ). I do consider culbreth a slight over umpire which is a concern given kazmir control. Straightforward play here as the -130 price tag tells me that the books expect kazmir to be good.
i will be on all of those plays and will post the actual numbers when i get on here tomorrow.
gl gang
