RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 3-0 +3.00
dogs 6-6 +1.63
overs 1-0 +1.00
unders 1-0-1 +1.00
ok ....... some thoughts on a couple games that i am looking to bet tomorrow.
reds -150 -------In my mind this is the biggest pitching mismatch of the season to date and it occurs at home for the reds. I guess the price is not more punitive because of the phillies lineup but thats the rub ... they dont hit harang at all.batting just .231 against him. He pitched against the phillies only once last year and his stat line looked like this ... 6 innings , 8 hits , 5 er . 3 of those came on a two out three run jack by ryan howard. I consider Harang one of the elite pitchers in the national league and he has already been a hard luck loser once already this year. he went 6 innings allowing 3 hits ( 2 homers ) and 2 er. Harang has also been very solid in the month of april historically. But we all know Harang is good. ........ Adam eaton was good five years ago .... but not recently. First of all, he got hit fairly hard by the reds the only time he faced them last year....6 innings , 6 hits , 3bb , 5 er. That was at home but that is a difficult stadium to pitch in ....... but he is both awful away from home and awful in april. last april ....look at these stats ... you might not even believe them ........ 28 innings pitched , 32 hits ,, 14 walks , 24 ER. he gave up 4 runs or more in 9 of his 15 away starts last year and gave up atleast 2 in every away start .... in addition, only three times did he allow just 2 runs and that was in the pitchers parks ... san diego and nymets ( twice ). Just not logical to believe that he goes out and pitches a 1 or 2 or even 3 run ballgame in this park especially in a day game. So I think I have a great chance to win this bet in two different ways .... 1. Harang pitches his normal game and shuts down the phillies bats ..or 2. Harang shows up with less than his good stuff and the reds simply outscore the phillies to win. At home , so I decided to bet it on the moneyline rather than lay the 1.5 runs with only 8 innings to bat in. Speaking of being at home .... consider this when deciding if this bet has value ..... if it is just -150 at home .... what would the line be if this match up were to be played in philadelphia ? i bet it already at -150.
i will also be betting the best team in baseball tomorrow .. the sf giants. thoughts on that coming later
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 3-0 +3.00
dogs 6-6 +1.63
overs 1-0 +1.00
unders 1-0-1 +1.00
ok ....... some thoughts on a couple games that i am looking to bet tomorrow.
reds -150 -------In my mind this is the biggest pitching mismatch of the season to date and it occurs at home for the reds. I guess the price is not more punitive because of the phillies lineup but thats the rub ... they dont hit harang at all.batting just .231 against him. He pitched against the phillies only once last year and his stat line looked like this ... 6 innings , 8 hits , 5 er . 3 of those came on a two out three run jack by ryan howard. I consider Harang one of the elite pitchers in the national league and he has already been a hard luck loser once already this year. he went 6 innings allowing 3 hits ( 2 homers ) and 2 er. Harang has also been very solid in the month of april historically. But we all know Harang is good. ........ Adam eaton was good five years ago .... but not recently. First of all, he got hit fairly hard by the reds the only time he faced them last year....6 innings , 6 hits , 3bb , 5 er. That was at home but that is a difficult stadium to pitch in ....... but he is both awful away from home and awful in april. last april ....look at these stats ... you might not even believe them ........ 28 innings pitched , 32 hits ,, 14 walks , 24 ER. he gave up 4 runs or more in 9 of his 15 away starts last year and gave up atleast 2 in every away start .... in addition, only three times did he allow just 2 runs and that was in the pitchers parks ... san diego and nymets ( twice ). Just not logical to believe that he goes out and pitches a 1 or 2 or even 3 run ballgame in this park especially in a day game. So I think I have a great chance to win this bet in two different ways .... 1. Harang pitches his normal game and shuts down the phillies bats ..or 2. Harang shows up with less than his good stuff and the reds simply outscore the phillies to win. At home , so I decided to bet it on the moneyline rather than lay the 1.5 runs with only 8 innings to bat in. Speaking of being at home .... consider this when deciding if this bet has value ..... if it is just -150 at home .... what would the line be if this match up were to be played in philadelphia ? i bet it already at -150.
i will also be betting the best team in baseball tomorrow .. the sf giants. thoughts on that coming later
