Time to post my mothers day may 11 baseball

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
:seeya:ok , i like a ton of games sunday so i wont be doing writeups but will give some tidbits along with each probable play........

braves
-----jurrjens 1.08 whip
----jurrjens road confidence and 185 batting average against on the road
----pirates hitting righties at 257
---- braves hitting 287 vs lefties
-----entire braves team pounds the living shit out of duke
---duke 1.60 whip
-- duke giving up .309 batting average at home
--estabrook bad calls at first base hurt braves yesterday , might get make up calling umpiring behind the plate here
concern -- pirates have won 5 in a row ... betting into a streak instead of with one.

mariners
--- bautista pitches well vs these guys , they hit .221 off him
---white sox .239 off righties
--mariners 9/28 off floyd with 2hr and 8 rbi
--situationally i like this spot , important for mariners after losing last 5 home games , 3 of which were to texas rangers , to get a win here before travelling to face said rangers in texas. they have lost 10 of 11 and this would be a very demoralizing loss. manager goes all out here for a win.
concern -- again ... we are backing a team playing bad baseball at the moment... we are betting into a streak instead of with it ... not the norm for baseball betting. Also bautista has been fighting foot pain.

athletics
---outside of young and blalock, the rangers really havent seen much of harden. young goes 286, and blalock goes 160 , the rest of the team combines for 2/14. Impossible to hit him hard if he is right which is the concern coming off the DL. A few of the A's really see ponson well. Ponson has pitched well so far but i trust Harden more. If it goes to the bullpens i also trust the A's more.
concern--harden off the dl here.

redsox

--- wakefield in a dome
--wakefield owns minnesota bats
--- in limited looks red sox have hit blackburn
--all things equal the difference in the lineups is astonishing

totals , not commenting on cause i am tired hehe

cards/brewers over 8.5 --- if i cannot get the 8.5 or lower it is a no play
angels/rays over 8.5 ----=- if i cannot get the 8.5 or lower it is a no play
reds /mets under 9 ----- if i cannot get 9 or higher it is a no play.

Sorry for less info and reasoning than normal but when i like this many games it is hard to talk about all of it. gl gang .... will be back in the morning with any plays in my official plays post. Seems like too many away teams for a sunday .... but got to bet where the capping leads you i suppose:cheers:
 
i would be very concerned with Harden off the DL, but that's usually a few starts away. Ponson also pitched well last time out, but it was against the Mariners who can't hit anything with their bats, just with their helmets.

...so you don't like the PITT-ATL under?
 
comments from above ...

So ....jc and warner are worried about harden off the dl ... i am too actually ... i think that is already reflected in the price. Always the chance he isnt really ready , also the chance that even if he is his innings are limited and we have to rely on bullpen. Still qualified as a play for me but i certainly understaqnd the concern there.

alex - thanks dude.

gman ---if you give me the other three sides , then you can have the boston game. hehe.

official plays post incoming
 
official plays

oakland -130
atlanta -129
seattle +100
boston -117
angels/rays over 8 +100


failed to get the numbers i wanted for the mets/reds total and the cards/brewers over so was forced to lay off putting a unit on those.
5 plays is a lot for me in one day so as i often say when i have alot of plays ...... pray for me.

gl gang.
 
Thanks everyone, pretty food day and the red sox even made it interesting for an at bat or two. 3-1 with a postponement in the atlanta game killing that action for a final accounting of plus 1.83 units.

oakland -- We didnt get the performance from Harden that i was hoping for and the A's blew a 4 run lead but the A's kept attacking ponson and eventually got to the ranger pen as well on a day that was ugly for pitchers. We win 12-6.

atlanta - was a rainout

angels/rays over -- we got everything we could want , lots of hits , preferential treatment to our cause from the umpire , and an early cover.

seattle -- Game really could have gone either way but the mariners had slightly better situational hitting and get the 6-3 win.

redsox -- the knuckleball of wakefield wasnt diving down into the zone as much as normal .... hung a lot over the plate and majore leaguers are gonna hit that type of pitch hard and the twinkies did. Boston trailed throughout and a late inning rally fell short 8-9.

Be back later with thoughts on tomorrow.
updated baseball record

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 28-22 +1.65 units
dogs 29-23 +12.45units
overs 5-5-2 EVEN
unders 20-6-1 +13.18 units
 
Good stuff VK. Nice day.

Funny you mentioned situational hitting in the SEA game because really every play side and total is basically decided on who succeeds in those " tough" situational spots. Most unders have alot of runners stranded while most overs especially the ones that just get there take advantage of every situation when they had men on. Same goes for the sides the guys who pitch out of jams tend to be succesful then the guys ho always seem to be just 1 pitch away from escaping and never make it.....

Probably a fairly obvious statement I just made but I think its something we sort of dontthink about enough at times when we look at how games or our bets are decided.....

BOL today VK... :cheers:
 
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