RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 33-29 -1.70 units
dogs 33-25 +15.20 units
overs 6-5-2 +1.00 units
unders 25-7-1 +17.10 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
Fist want to thank everyone i didnt thank in yesterdays thread. thanks. hehe.
ok lets look at what i am seeing for monday ...............
cubs -120
- records
houston is 25-20 and 11-6 (8 of last 9 ) at home and have won 7 of their last 10.
cubs are 27-17 and 8-9 on the road and have won 8 of last 10
Astros have been on the road the last 10 so i would argue they may be the hotter of the two teams but just 3-3 over last 6. both are playing extremely well right now.
-spot
houston returns home after a 10 game road trip that began way back on may 9th. The end of the road trip was in Arlington so they didnt have heavy travel to get back home for this game. They have now played a game on 13 straight days with no day off, Marks an important homestand for astros with philly coming in for a set after the cubs. Not sure how important the franchise views those games with texas.
cubs are travelling after ending a 10 game homestand sunday morning against the pirates. Cubs have played on 10 consecutive days but they were all at home. Important divisional road trip with the pirates on deck after houston.
Despite returning home here , i think the astros should be the more tired team.
-lilly vs astros
lilly is 4-4 , ERA is 5.33 , WHIP is 1.28. Team is 5-4 when he starts
cubs are 5-0 behind lilly when scoring 3 runs or more.
lilly can be trusted to pitch innings , he has gone 6 or more in his last 6 starts
lilly current form is pretty good.
------last five starts combined 32 innings pitched 23 hits , 10bb , 36 so , 11 er
----last two away starts combined 13 innings pitched , 10 hits , 3 bb , 11 so, 5 er
-----lilly has allowed 3 er or less in 5 of last 6 starts.
Astros are hitting .300 vs lefties.
Astros do not hit lilly well at all.
---- In 136 AB the astros bat just .184 against lilly. They have just 3 hr in those 136 AB.
---Even better for the cubs is how the key bats perform against him.....
tejada 3 of 24 , 1 2b
berkman 1 of 8 , 1 2b
C Lee 3 of 19 , 2 2b
pence 0 of 4
Moehler vs the cubs
Moehler is 0-0 with a 4.58 ERA and a WHIP of 1.58. The team is 2-0 when he has started
moehler has yet to pitch more than 5 innings and didnt start a game in 2007.
moehler current form is good , atleast as a starter.
his two starts combined are 10 ip , 13 hits , 1 bb , 7 so , 3 er
cubs are batting 282 vs righties
cubs hit moehler very well
-----In 87 AB the cubs bat .345 vs moehler and have touched him for 6 hr over those 87 AB
Worse for the astros is how well the key bats have done
soriano 4 of 7 , 1 2b
ramirez 3 of 11 , 1 2b , 1 3b
d Lee 1 of 2 , 1 hr
edmonds 11 of 32 , 4 2b , 5 hr
State of the bullpens
astros
may 15 borkowski threw 8 pitches
geary threw 9 pitches
byrdak threw 12 pitches
valverde threw 15 pitches
may 16 borkowski threw 30 pitches
wright threw 39 pitches
brocail threw 6 pitches
villareal threw 34 pitches
may 17 byrdak threw 13 pitches
nieve threw 21 pitches
may 18 brocail threw 26 pitches
valverde threw 27 pitches
total of 240 pitches the last 4 days
cubs
may 15 k wood threw 11 pitches
may 16 howry 20 pitches
wood threw 10 pitches
may 17 wuertz threw 23
eyre threw 4
leiber threw 20
marmol threw 15
may 18 howry 17
marmol threw 20
wood threw 13
total of 153 pitches the last 4 days
so the cubs should have the more rested pen.
my thoughts
What i see here is an experienced starter in lilly who eats innings up against an opponent that he has great success against. See little reason he cant go long innings here given that success and the bullpen should be able to close it down from there. On the other side we have moehler , an inexperienced starter who does not go innings with a depleted bullpen behind him. Rate to get to this bullpen given past success of cubs hitters vs moehler. Astros rate to be the more tired team as well, not having a day off for weeks and culminating a 10 game road trip on sunday. Worth a shot i think.
other possibles
Also looking at the under in the tampa/oakland game but i wont go under a 7.5 in an american league game. just wont do it. So if i get an 8 here , and i dont expect to , then i will make a play on the under.
Also like the under in the reds/dodgers game. A lot of factors point to an under in that game but i need a 9 to go under to get me on it. A sea of 8.5 right now. Think this one has a chance to see 9 ...certainly a better chance than the A's game seeing an 8.
Won't play either unless i get those numbers... so might just be the cubbies tomorrow.
gl gang ,,, btw i already played the cubs -120 so you will see that in my official plays post tomorrow.
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 33-29 -1.70 units
dogs 33-25 +15.20 units
overs 6-5-2 +1.00 units
unders 25-7-1 +17.10 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
Fist want to thank everyone i didnt thank in yesterdays thread. thanks. hehe.
ok lets look at what i am seeing for monday ...............
cubs -120
- records
houston is 25-20 and 11-6 (8 of last 9 ) at home and have won 7 of their last 10.
cubs are 27-17 and 8-9 on the road and have won 8 of last 10
Astros have been on the road the last 10 so i would argue they may be the hotter of the two teams but just 3-3 over last 6. both are playing extremely well right now.
-spot
houston returns home after a 10 game road trip that began way back on may 9th. The end of the road trip was in Arlington so they didnt have heavy travel to get back home for this game. They have now played a game on 13 straight days with no day off, Marks an important homestand for astros with philly coming in for a set after the cubs. Not sure how important the franchise views those games with texas.
cubs are travelling after ending a 10 game homestand sunday morning against the pirates. Cubs have played on 10 consecutive days but they were all at home. Important divisional road trip with the pirates on deck after houston.
Despite returning home here , i think the astros should be the more tired team.
-lilly vs astros
lilly is 4-4 , ERA is 5.33 , WHIP is 1.28. Team is 5-4 when he starts
cubs are 5-0 behind lilly when scoring 3 runs or more.
lilly can be trusted to pitch innings , he has gone 6 or more in his last 6 starts
lilly current form is pretty good.
------last five starts combined 32 innings pitched 23 hits , 10bb , 36 so , 11 er
----last two away starts combined 13 innings pitched , 10 hits , 3 bb , 11 so, 5 er
-----lilly has allowed 3 er or less in 5 of last 6 starts.
Astros are hitting .300 vs lefties.
Astros do not hit lilly well at all.
---- In 136 AB the astros bat just .184 against lilly. They have just 3 hr in those 136 AB.
---Even better for the cubs is how the key bats perform against him.....
tejada 3 of 24 , 1 2b
berkman 1 of 8 , 1 2b
C Lee 3 of 19 , 2 2b
pence 0 of 4
Moehler vs the cubs
Moehler is 0-0 with a 4.58 ERA and a WHIP of 1.58. The team is 2-0 when he has started
moehler has yet to pitch more than 5 innings and didnt start a game in 2007.
moehler current form is good , atleast as a starter.
his two starts combined are 10 ip , 13 hits , 1 bb , 7 so , 3 er
cubs are batting 282 vs righties
cubs hit moehler very well
-----In 87 AB the cubs bat .345 vs moehler and have touched him for 6 hr over those 87 AB
Worse for the astros is how well the key bats have done
soriano 4 of 7 , 1 2b
ramirez 3 of 11 , 1 2b , 1 3b
d Lee 1 of 2 , 1 hr
edmonds 11 of 32 , 4 2b , 5 hr
State of the bullpens
astros
may 15 borkowski threw 8 pitches
geary threw 9 pitches
byrdak threw 12 pitches
valverde threw 15 pitches
may 16 borkowski threw 30 pitches
wright threw 39 pitches
brocail threw 6 pitches
villareal threw 34 pitches
may 17 byrdak threw 13 pitches
nieve threw 21 pitches
may 18 brocail threw 26 pitches
valverde threw 27 pitches
total of 240 pitches the last 4 days
cubs
may 15 k wood threw 11 pitches
may 16 howry 20 pitches
wood threw 10 pitches
may 17 wuertz threw 23
eyre threw 4
leiber threw 20
marmol threw 15
may 18 howry 17
marmol threw 20
wood threw 13
total of 153 pitches the last 4 days
so the cubs should have the more rested pen.
my thoughts
What i see here is an experienced starter in lilly who eats innings up against an opponent that he has great success against. See little reason he cant go long innings here given that success and the bullpen should be able to close it down from there. On the other side we have moehler , an inexperienced starter who does not go innings with a depleted bullpen behind him. Rate to get to this bullpen given past success of cubs hitters vs moehler. Astros rate to be the more tired team as well, not having a day off for weeks and culminating a 10 game road trip on sunday. Worth a shot i think.
other possibles
Also looking at the under in the tampa/oakland game but i wont go under a 7.5 in an american league game. just wont do it. So if i get an 8 here , and i dont expect to , then i will make a play on the under.
Also like the under in the reds/dodgers game. A lot of factors point to an under in that game but i need a 9 to go under to get me on it. A sea of 8.5 right now. Think this one has a chance to see 9 ...certainly a better chance than the A's game seeing an 8.
Won't play either unless i get those numbers... so might just be the cubbies tomorrow.
gl gang ,,, btw i already played the cubs -120 so you will see that in my official plays post tomorrow.
