Yep , like I said we think alot alike. Definetly the first play that caught my eye seeing Maddux favored in SF. The Giants lineup is weak and Durham has missed sometime but is back now. I found it laughable that they sat Rowand(bruised ribs) , WInn and Molina today putting out one pathetic lineup when you include Vizquels absence. Could only guess he was trying to make a point doing that when your down 4 starters from an already bad lineup what are you looking for ?
Matt Cain throws gas is an upand comer that is great to fade usually because he is so good and gets cheap numbers except he cant win games alone. So people will continue to back him in unfavorable situations because most of the time he will pitch good and not be the direct result for the loss. Here at home and as a dog to Maddux and a so-so SD lineup seems TASTY.
Next start I would hope people dont get to excited about Ben Sheets because this lineup was a Fn joke and remember this MILW will kill LHP .
Just want to see who actually plays for SF...
The four-time Cy Young Award winner is 5-0 with a 2.83 ERA in nine starts versus the Giants since May 9, 2003. In three starts against San Francisco last season, Maddux went 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA.
The future Hall of Famer lost his first start at AT&T Park in 2000, but has posted a 2.72 ERA in winning his last six starts there.
Another UNDER ?
Cincy hosts Philly:
I would look closely at Philly. Probably one I play. It doesnt take a brain surgeon to realize that Cole Hamels is quickly becoming one of the premier LH SP in the game. The one flaw Cincy could have is versus tough LHP even though I feel its slightly better vs LH this year. Hamels probably sends Junior to the bench with Freel in his place. Freel is 0/7 this year and 1/7 against Hamels lifetime but suprisingly the RH hit just 143 off LH last year. . Griff had a nice day at the plate today but hit something like 235 and 207 last 2 years off LHP and faced Hamels a couple times going 0-2 with bb and 2Ks. The good news is there 2 best hitters have been Keppinger and Phillips so fcar both RH who hit well against LHP (362 and 341 LYR). Only Phillips has faced Hamels going 0-5. The rest of the lineup will probably be Valentin behind the plate if healthy ( hamstring issues) who is 222 BA , 296 OBP and 298 SLG % in his career vs LHP with 3HRs in about 240 atbats. Not a good matchup but worse possibly if the LH Bako goes. Bako not a good hitter to begin with has WORSE numbers then Valentin vs LH's a 171 BA , 221 OBA and 256 SLG%.!!
Hatteberg might play first over Votto. Hard to imagine them letting Votto play against Hamels. Votto a bigtime prospect failed to win the 1st base job that was pratically handed to him in ST is 2/11 so far and Hatteberg is 1/12. Hatteberg doesnt see many LHs usually getting just 35 atbats ( Conine & Aurilia I believe platooned with him in the past) and hot 205 LYR , 237 the previous and about 235 for his career with a 670 OPS. Votto to his credit ws 7/26 with just 2 Ks cs LH last year but just 2 doubles and 1 rbi to speak of.
Encarnacion is key for them vs LH as a RH batter but has struggled so far. Just 2 for 16 he does have the walkoff HR and about 7 bbs so doing some things right. One thing I noticed is most of the Cincy guys havent fared well vs Philly pitching in there careers ( Encarnacion sub 200 but 6 knocks). He did hit 284 vs LH last year after struggling at about 247 to start his career . Dunn only 3/17 so far , 260 in his career off Philly pitching , 241 career vs LHP and 237 , 273 and 197 L3 years off LHP. Leaving Patterson another guy with a . career 179 clip off Philly pitching and hitting .250 at the moment. Patterson is inconsistent hitting 310 LYR (6/11) against LH after 207(4bb/29K) and 169 (5bb/36k)which followed a consecutive 289 marks but only 11 bbs and 68Ks for him. You can see the huge improvement in cutting down strikeouts for him vs LH . Still being a LH facing such a good LH is a negative and his track record shows he can clearly struggle vs them.
The 11 Reds who have faced Hamels in their careers are a combined 4-for-35 with 17 strikeouts.
Most reds hit well in day games but Phillips just 228 Last year would be a concern since he is such a key vs LH.
Arroyo is 1-6 in 7 day starts 5.36 ERA and 326 BAA. His problem here is I think a guy who throws a slurve struggles vs LHB because they usually dont have much of a secondary pitch without some sort of great changeup or maybe forkball , splitter evenhavy sinker. None of which Arroyo possessses.
His 2 years in the NL his night and day splits well have been NIGHT AND DAY occurrences ! See for yourself . LHB are at 282 career vs him compared to 242 and he made some strides last year gettingto about 272 except RHB went from liek 202 to 285 vs him in 2007. . You have Rollins , Utley , Howard , Jenkins to deal with. So not a good situation with his poor day splits and made worse with the abudance of LH hitters Philly has. Last year Philly hit better inday games but Rowand who exceled at 332 10 hrs is gone to SF which is a nice plus for SF backers if he can play. Already this year they have hit better in day games. All 6 returning players hit at least .280 in day games , Feliz 273 and Jenkins 303 (compared to 230 at night) for there respective former teams.
Philly has Lidge back but not sure if he will be available yet in B2B games. Hamels pitched real solid vs Wash 8inn 5 h 1 run but they lost so nice bounce back spot for him. Last year only a slight dropof for Hamels whenhe traveled but did have a couple of rough day starts and thats the only knock him so far. Just 6-5 compared to 18-9 at night. Also 5.14 ERA 1.48 WHIP and 278 BAA compared to 3.03 ERA , 1.05 WHIP and 218 BAA. I am guessing the few bad starts he has in his career have come in day games but he has struggled in some interleague starts as well @ Cle , @ Balt and vs TB while only four or 5 NL teams evenhave ERAs slightily above 4 vs him and his 1st strat atWrigley was teribble in 2006 2 inn 9 hits , 9runs and 5 earned. The key is @ Great American he has been excellent. His ML debut there 5 innings just 1 hit , noruns , 5bb and 7Ks and then last April complete game , 5hitter 1 run , 2bb and 15ks. Though both were at night.
On paper its a great matchup for Hamels and a bad one for Arroyo. Cincy doesnt have Ross at catcher which would be an upgrade , they have lost super subs like Aurilia and Conine past few seasons and traded Lopez and Kearns all guys hwo contributed from the RH side...
Just hope the price stays relatively cheap after reds played well . Hamels was -140 in the past @ CIncy facing Ramirez and Milton so Idont want to pay above 150 really...
Others -
Pirates will have trouble vs LH pitching with J. Wilson and Sanchez not playing have to check there status. They only managed i earned off hendrickson but the new DP duo of Rivas and Gomez has produced bioth went 3-5 yesterday and 3 of 9 Saturday as Gomez has always hit LH well.
Like I said hard to back SEA but would you want to ride Cabrera? Over possibly
?
Looking at CHI balanced lineup and there momentum from a 3 game sweep of DET and there home opener they look real cheap to me. The Twins have struggled to scoe and now they go on the road and Blackburn makes his 1st road start and his relief appearances last year away dont look so good. If it gets to 8.5 and over will be enticing. He was good vs LAA because he got LH out which he didnt do last year can he do it again? Vazquez was okay his 1st game and Morneau heating up hi s him well. LHB will be the key and besides the M&M boys and Kubel role players Lamb and Tolbert could see action . That was JJvys downfall vs CLE the inability to get there LH out.
Houston -120 at home for there opener a nice edge with Wandy being HOME and Wellenmeyer getting much respect on the road. Wellenmeyer is probably no more then a 6 inning guy at this point and thhis is one stacked HOU lineup.
Yanks -190 ? Moose was a pitch or two away from stayinmg out from trouble but that is osmething maybe often said with him this year. There is truth to it though as I believe there was a tight zone and an error possibly in his last start. Guys like Moose cant win with tight zones they need the Glavine expanded version . Hammel despite terrible career splits pitched well in both his starts at the Stadium last year but only went as deep as five innings. Real cold weather might call for another UNDER seems to be the way to figure out Yankee totals or hitting at least.
LAA +110 ? Simply thinking of fading CLE vs LHP . Danks and Eveland shut down there offense and while Buerhle was ripped he was held back 2 or 3 days just so they could start a LH in that series and it backfired IMO. To much rest probably left him flat and his routine messed up.
Guess I will be back tmrw to chat some more and talk about what I DID play...GL bro:cheers::shake:
