Time to post my monday april 28 baseball

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
ok ... like one play tomorrow for sure and am still capping some others. Just a small warning about my plays the last few days. Much like sports teams , sports cappers can be streaky at times. I am currently on a negative streak as i have not posted a winning day since last wednesday. Just might want to keep that in mind. Also want to thank Tendog for the nice words that i failed to respond to in my last "time to post" thread.


Astros/Dbacks under 9.5-- Haren has just been a stud for the dbacks at home to start this year. 19 innings , 14 hits , 3 bb , and just 2 er. His WHIP for the year so far is just 1.11. The astros as a team have not hit Haren well. They bat just .258 and even more impressive is that Haren has held them to a an obp of .292. The two major rbi guys for the astros have only seen him a combined 8 AB and have just 2 hits. Astros are hitting just .242 vs righties this year as a team so far and Haren is likely one of the tougher righties they will have faced to date. This is the third travel day of this road brutal road trip for the stros. Fly to cincy for 3 , fly to stlouis for 3 and now fly west for 3 with the dbacks. Tough spot for the astro bats. But the thing is that this is not a good matchup for the dback offense either. Certainly not enough for me to lay a huge price like what Haren is favored by here. Sampson takes the mound for the astros. The expected lineup for the dbacks is just 8/30 off sampson , so they havent seen a lot of him. And a lot of the success they have had has been via chris young and he is just cold at the plate right now. Hard to expect a multi hit game from him right now. The 3-5 hitters are just 1-8 and reynolds and jackson have only gotten a look at sampson one time each prior to this game. Sampson has allowed 3 er or less in 3 of 4 starts and the dbacks have been a better offensive team vs lefties than righties... and to be quite frank , i think this offense has overachieved to date. They bat .258 vs righties so far this season. Dbacks are a huge favorite here , so despite not liking the value in betting them , i have to like the possibilty of this one going just 8.5 innings. Weather will be nice , so a slight edge there for the offenses but atleast there does not rate to be heavy winds out or heavy crosswinds. looks easy enough.

i played this already at under 9.5 -120 so it will appear in my official plays post. still capping other games so perhaps there will be more.

The mlb forum was dreadfully slow today. Hope it picks up again .... i know that i for one have been a bit burned out from capping like a fiend the first month of the year.
 
Hard to disgree with that play. I am not really interested in past history for either as Hous largely is a new lineup for them and Zona is mostly young players who have matured also being Haren has switched leagues and Sampson still trying to become consistent even though his past history is a plus .

What really stands out as you pointed out is we have 2 lineups dominanted by RHBs and two RHP. Although neither SP is known for shutting down RHB more for there ability as RH to get LHs out..

If you go back at the last 7 , 8 games or so for both we will see good pitching and not much offense...Hous has allowed 3 or4 runs in 7 of 9 and while they scored 21 runs past 5 games seven of those came with 2 out in one inning vs Arroyo...they only managed 7 runs in STL this weekend...expecting solid efforts grom both SP and the pens have shown improvement lately...

thinking Houston here.....think I like that every trend points to an over and Haren has seen all overs so far and alot of run support...think that ends here.....


The price for Johan is high but really a game I think he wins comfortably ...Pitt 1-7 vs LHP so far and Snell hasnt pitched well at SHea lately maybe something I can parlay......Pitt 39-67 vs LHP ;ast 2 + years

BOL shit card 2 sift through...:cheers:
 
thanks for the post , really wanting some input tonight.

I really like johan chances as well. But you know how i feel about laying a number like that in baseball. And I agree that Snell hasn't exactly been pitching his best ( in victory usually ) but he is the kind of guy that IS capable of shutting an opposing offense down somewhat. No real reason to think santana doesnt dominate this pathetic pirates lineup. Nice stat on pitt vs lefties over the last two years. Didnt realize it was that bad.

As long as we are talking new york baseball ... .... What do you think of moose at laugher tomorrow ?
 
Big game for NY as they need a win to finish the road trip 5-5 . Sounds minor but its something that seems to have been emphasized under Torre and now Girardi. The sort of win each series , win the road trip mentality, to kind of continually do this and you will look up and see your team is 20 games above 500 and as it continues to build..

I know Duncan is back in the mix but LHP has killed the Yanks on the road. If I recall correctly they lost 15 of the first 17 games last year started by a LH on the road before winning the last 3 which were in Sept and probably has something to do with Duncans addition to the lineups. This year 2-2 but both wins had solid pitching performances allowing 1 combined run in those 2 games. Common theme is they dont hit much in these games......

Dont recall much of anything about Laffey but I am sure he is not a stud. He didnt have good splits vs LHB last year and that could be a concern facing NYY. Overall he was very medicore at best since he faced some weak lineups. Cle playing 6th game in 5 days and could be w/o Sizemore again.

Like I said Moose is in the show me phase. His velocity is medicore at best and he needs to "pitch" well everytime out to restore faith. Him pitching relies on working both sides of the plate , different arm angles and changing gears from slow to slower and so on...so every start he makes is a test which his last start to me will always be like it never happened. he will have to prove himslef all over again. Cle is built very similiar too Chi WSox except Cle's RHB for the most part are not as good as Chi's. So you can use the fact he was successful vs Chi to which would leave him a good opportunity to be successful vs Cle...

Always interested in the starting lineups but I think Moose can start here with some confidence. Which I think he lost in the game vs Boston the 1st time Manny hit a big HR off him. Moose has 2 really good starts , 2 medicore starts and 1 terrible start...Really he has been good vs LHB and hit hard by the RHs. Basically because he can get inside to LH consisently and not RH...

Do I want to get excited about backing Moose on the road ? Given the situation and price though at even money its probably something I will entertain seriously.....Of concern is the weather though the warmer weather is a benefit to his velocity so the extreme cold could be a detriment....and again NYY vs LH away is not an impressive track record...:cheers:
 
i agree that it is difficult to justify laying that price with any team. if i were a betting man, then i would probably bet pitt small for the sake of getting more than 2:1 on my money.

gl kyle
 
Haren has been really strong at home and Hou is traveling in for the first game. I'm also on this play but didn't get the half run, but I don't think it will be necessary.

GL kyle.
 
got a pea sized strike zone in arizona. batters just sitting on the middle of the plate and thats where pitchers have to throw. a major over umpire there..... thats the risk when you lock in early. atleast i got a full half run the best of the close. that will pay off in the end a lot. gonna need a miraculous bullpen effort from here.
 
ok 1-0 on the day plus 1.00 units. ended my mini losing streak there.


under astros/dbacks -- astros had 5 hits , dbacks had 7 hits and i still feel fortunate to have won this with 8 runs being scored. Astros walked the bases loaded with none out in bottom of the eighth. strikeout , double play followed by brandon lyon in the ninth gets the cash. Strike zone in this game was funny but no use complaining when i am cashing the ticket.

updated baseball record

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000

favorites 19-18 -2.04units
dogs 24-17 +12.95units
overs 2-4-1 -2.00 units
unders 12-4-1 +7.53 units<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
 
Yeah some craziness but similiar to the Pitt game yesterday where it seemed baserunners came in bunches and thats when most of the hits occurred. One one hand they got out of some tough jams but on the other they couldnt do much right early with MOB. Sort of balances out in my book...I means you bet Under 9.5 runs and they had 12 hits in the entire the game . To win unders you need good pitching and well we got that especially at some critical times as it was still a 5-3 game in the b8th so Houston wants to keep it close...good one IMO...
 
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