RetroVK
This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 17-13 +1.67 units
dogs 20-17 +8.02units
overs 2-3-1 -1.00 units
unders 8-3-1 +4.58 units
ok here is what i am looking at for monday..........
giants/dbacks under 9 ----Seems to me we have a nice low scoring game matchup here. Owings is off to an incredible start this year including a dominating performance against these very giants. Owings is 3-0 and has pitched atleast 6 innings in every single start. He has allowed just 5 er and 12 hits in 19.2 innings pitched. He is also striking a lot of guys out with 19 in those 19.2 innings. He has had great success vs the giants roster which bats just .164 against the guy in 61 AB. And as bad as the giants lineup is in general it is even worse against lefties this year where they bat just .206 as a team. Hard to fathom them rocking owings here .... so it should be an easy bet on the dbacks right ?? Well not really ... they are a huge favorite at home and i think we all know the dangers of laying runlines with home teams. And they just have not had much success vs Correia. They bat just .205 off the guy in 78 AB and Correia has looked pretty decent as well to start this year. He gave up two ding dongs in the game vs zona earlier this year for 4 of the 5 runs he allowed in that game. but over 6 innings he gave up just 3 other hits and 3 free passes. And as good as the zona offense has been it has not been nearly as good against righthanded starters where they bat just .261 as a team. In his one road start this year Correia pitched very well against the brewers though they also touched him for two homers. So I dont see why Correia should not have success here. If he can manage to keep the ball in the park or atleast limit the homer to a solo shot he should be just fine. Prefer the under to any other options here , and it is likely my favorite play for monday... though without umpire info yet it is always difficult to say for sure.
Cardinals +100 -- Once again we have stud ( or close to ) right handed pitcher up against that brewer lineup that just cant seem to hit them. Brewers are batting just .226 vs all righties and i think wainwright has better stuff than your average run of the mill righthanded pitcher. In a previous game to milwaukee this year , wainwright went 7.2 innings , 1 hit , 1 er ...... so he has confidence vs these guys already as well. Not suprisingly Wainwright has nice numbers against the brewer roster where they manage to hit him at a .225 clip in 79 AB while walking only 8 times and homering only once. In addition Wainwright has shown good early control to keep the brewers off the bases via the free pass. He has gone 7 innings or more in all 3 starts and has given up 2, 4 , and 1 er in those starts. Pretty impressive. The cards are also coming off a home spanking to the giants which has to sit in their stomachs a little bit. They have not looked comfortable at the plate the last two games but i think they will be ok here vs Villanueva. In 16 innings to start this year villanueva has given up 23 hits and 11 er and has given up 7 BB. So while Wainwright has started well , villanueva has not. In addition , the cards rocked him last time .... he went just 4,2 innings , gave up 8 hits and allowed 5 earned runs. Also ... Pujols owns this guy .... 7/18 with 2 hr. Love that after two not so pujols- like games vs sfgiants. Cardinals are batting .289 off of righties this year and see no reason why they cant do similar here. Really , you are asking both teams to perform differently than what past performance would indicate here in order for the brewers to win. So I will take my chances with the more likely scenario as i see it and bet the cards.
rockies -110 --Redman pitched well in 2 of his 3 starts this year , giving up just 2er in each of those games. He was roughed up a little in his start vs the dbacks but Arizona is lighting up just about every lefty they see so i suppose i can cut Redman some slack there as well. As a team the phillies bat just .212 off of Redman and it is even less if you were to throw out jimmy rollins who wont be playing. As good as the phillies lineup is they have not hit lefties particularly well , averaging around .226 as a team. They just won an emotional game at home , at night , against their arch rivals the mets and now must travel several time zones to face the rockies. So it is a bad spot for them as well. Redman has not gone long innings so far this year and that would be my once concern as rockies bullpen has to be hurting a bit right now after lots of action the last week. Kyle Kendrick takes the hill for the phillies and while it is always dangerous to bet against anyone named kyle , i think there is good reason here. Now the rockies have only seen kendrick a few times , so this has to be taken with somewhat of a grain of salt ...... but when they have seen him,,,, they have hit him. They bat .364 as a team against him and have hit for 5 extra base hits in just 33 AB. In his two road starts this year, kendrick has failed to go more than 5 innings in either game.... combined 7.1 innings 12 hits and allowed 11 runs , though only 5 of those were earned runs. He has struggled throwing strikes all year and that could hurt him even more in the thin air of colorado. He has issued 9 walks in just 14.1 innings pitched. It gets worse ... the rockies love to see righthanders. Barmes, Holliday , tavares , atkins , helton all bat atlest .280 vs righties this year . I stated in an earlier thread , i dont think this guy is still in the rotation for this team come summer time.. Lots of good indicators pointing to a play on the rockies here and i did it.
i have already played all three of these games ... official plays post incoming. There is a chance that i could get a bad umpire for the total but i dont see this number doing anything but getting worse so i went ahead and bet it ... and pray that i get an under guy for the game.
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 17-13 +1.67 units
dogs 20-17 +8.02units
overs 2-3-1 -1.00 units
unders 8-3-1 +4.58 units
ok here is what i am looking at for monday..........
giants/dbacks under 9 ----Seems to me we have a nice low scoring game matchup here. Owings is off to an incredible start this year including a dominating performance against these very giants. Owings is 3-0 and has pitched atleast 6 innings in every single start. He has allowed just 5 er and 12 hits in 19.2 innings pitched. He is also striking a lot of guys out with 19 in those 19.2 innings. He has had great success vs the giants roster which bats just .164 against the guy in 61 AB. And as bad as the giants lineup is in general it is even worse against lefties this year where they bat just .206 as a team. Hard to fathom them rocking owings here .... so it should be an easy bet on the dbacks right ?? Well not really ... they are a huge favorite at home and i think we all know the dangers of laying runlines with home teams. And they just have not had much success vs Correia. They bat just .205 off the guy in 78 AB and Correia has looked pretty decent as well to start this year. He gave up two ding dongs in the game vs zona earlier this year for 4 of the 5 runs he allowed in that game. but over 6 innings he gave up just 3 other hits and 3 free passes. And as good as the zona offense has been it has not been nearly as good against righthanded starters where they bat just .261 as a team. In his one road start this year Correia pitched very well against the brewers though they also touched him for two homers. So I dont see why Correia should not have success here. If he can manage to keep the ball in the park or atleast limit the homer to a solo shot he should be just fine. Prefer the under to any other options here , and it is likely my favorite play for monday... though without umpire info yet it is always difficult to say for sure.
Cardinals +100 -- Once again we have stud ( or close to ) right handed pitcher up against that brewer lineup that just cant seem to hit them. Brewers are batting just .226 vs all righties and i think wainwright has better stuff than your average run of the mill righthanded pitcher. In a previous game to milwaukee this year , wainwright went 7.2 innings , 1 hit , 1 er ...... so he has confidence vs these guys already as well. Not suprisingly Wainwright has nice numbers against the brewer roster where they manage to hit him at a .225 clip in 79 AB while walking only 8 times and homering only once. In addition Wainwright has shown good early control to keep the brewers off the bases via the free pass. He has gone 7 innings or more in all 3 starts and has given up 2, 4 , and 1 er in those starts. Pretty impressive. The cards are also coming off a home spanking to the giants which has to sit in their stomachs a little bit. They have not looked comfortable at the plate the last two games but i think they will be ok here vs Villanueva. In 16 innings to start this year villanueva has given up 23 hits and 11 er and has given up 7 BB. So while Wainwright has started well , villanueva has not. In addition , the cards rocked him last time .... he went just 4,2 innings , gave up 8 hits and allowed 5 earned runs. Also ... Pujols owns this guy .... 7/18 with 2 hr. Love that after two not so pujols- like games vs sfgiants. Cardinals are batting .289 off of righties this year and see no reason why they cant do similar here. Really , you are asking both teams to perform differently than what past performance would indicate here in order for the brewers to win. So I will take my chances with the more likely scenario as i see it and bet the cards.
rockies -110 --Redman pitched well in 2 of his 3 starts this year , giving up just 2er in each of those games. He was roughed up a little in his start vs the dbacks but Arizona is lighting up just about every lefty they see so i suppose i can cut Redman some slack there as well. As a team the phillies bat just .212 off of Redman and it is even less if you were to throw out jimmy rollins who wont be playing. As good as the phillies lineup is they have not hit lefties particularly well , averaging around .226 as a team. They just won an emotional game at home , at night , against their arch rivals the mets and now must travel several time zones to face the rockies. So it is a bad spot for them as well. Redman has not gone long innings so far this year and that would be my once concern as rockies bullpen has to be hurting a bit right now after lots of action the last week. Kyle Kendrick takes the hill for the phillies and while it is always dangerous to bet against anyone named kyle , i think there is good reason here. Now the rockies have only seen kendrick a few times , so this has to be taken with somewhat of a grain of salt ...... but when they have seen him,,,, they have hit him. They bat .364 as a team against him and have hit for 5 extra base hits in just 33 AB. In his two road starts this year, kendrick has failed to go more than 5 innings in either game.... combined 7.1 innings 12 hits and allowed 11 runs , though only 5 of those were earned runs. He has struggled throwing strikes all year and that could hurt him even more in the thin air of colorado. He has issued 9 walks in just 14.1 innings pitched. It gets worse ... the rockies love to see righthanders. Barmes, Holliday , tavares , atkins , helton all bat atlest .280 vs righties this year . I stated in an earlier thread , i dont think this guy is still in the rotation for this team come summer time.. Lots of good indicators pointing to a play on the rockies here and i did it.
i have already played all three of these games ... official plays post incoming. There is a chance that i could get a bad umpire for the total but i dont see this number doing anything but getting worse so i went ahead and bet it ... and pray that i get an under guy for the game.
