Time to post my may 21 baseball

[RetroVK]

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 34-29 -0.70 units
dogs 34-26 +15.20 units
overs 6-5-2 +1.00 units
unders 25-8-1 +15.95 units




official plays

Toronto - 1.33 -- marcum is about as consistent as one could ask for and give the bjays a huge edge here in starting pitching in general. Throw in the past success vs garland for the bjays and the lack thereof for the angels bats vs marcum and it spells a toronto win.

Cubs - 1.08 -- Obviously this deopends heavily on which Chacon one gets. The Chacon that started the year for the astros or the one who has been pitching in the league for years and the one who seems to be regressing back to that form ? I picked the latter. Astros have not seen the cubs kid yet either and that should give him the early advantage the first time or two through the lineup.

Reds + 1.25 -- cueto has one of the most interesting statlines you will ever see from a pitcher. His whip is low , but he gets hammered via the home run. Dodgers dont hit righties as well in general and certainly dont have the power from the left side of the plate. Also a tough stadium to crank homers in , so i dont see why cueto should fail to have success. reds bats look to line up nicely vs kuroda who has been pitching well of late. worth a shot.

Rockies - 1.47 -- Sanchez not the same guy on the road and this will be second go around for some of the rockies to see him. Prefer the rockies depth here over the giants. see below. -147 is about as high as you will see me lay on a baseball game... so i really expect a rockies win here.

Rockies 9 1/2 under - 1.10 --day game after a late night game. should see rested players most times.in this spot and the giants especially do not have hitting depth.

Athletics - 1.12 -- Like the home bounceback spot here for the athletics. Rays have not seen Eveland and that should spell a lot of outs for him. Sonnanstine has been pitching well but i dont like his spot in the rotation anymore now that kazmir is back. Tough act to follow , so i expect the A's to scratch a few across here.

Athletics 8 1/2 under -1.15 --Again we have a day game following a late night game which should bring resting of players. huge stadium , two hot pitchers , two struggling lineups.

you all might want to wait and make sure players are resting before playing the totals. i made the plays a long time ago.

gl gang

 

[Blue_Chip]

gl vk

 

[MusicCityGambler]

gl kyle, on a few of the same plays. Hope we get some cash tonight.

 

[RetroVK]

thanks guys. Got a few resters in the rockies game but not as many as hoped for. Hopefully the others are tired.

 

[RetroVK]

whoooooooo !!!! a lot of sitters in oakland. Atleast that angle was correct. Now we just need the rest of it to come together. these lineups on paper are atrocious for this game.

 

[RetroVK]

There are going to be a lot of folks bemoaning the "bad beat" in colorado today , and rightfully so to a degree. But I don't want to talk about the game in particular but want to discuss it in the context of baseball betting in general.....

The colorado game ... i had capped perfectly today. I mean ... close to perfect ... I thought it would be buccholz followed by fuentes and a cash. But Fuentes , a relative stud out of the pen comes in and blows a two run lead to one of the worst offenses in baseball. Guess what ? It happens.

This is why you will consistently see me saying that laying -260 , -270 , -280 on great pitchers like johan santana is madness. It's baseball. The great pitcher can do exactly what you expect and you can still lose ... and I am not saying that it happens infrequently ... it can happen a good percent of the time. Laying huge prices in baseball is for losers.

It took a scenario that i absolutely loved for me to lay a price as big as the one in colorado today ... the game went as expected .. and i lost the bet. Imagine if it had been -250

Think about that ..... the game went as expected and i lost the bet.

This is also why I do not believe in the "10 unit play" "15 unit play" or "20 unit" play. Well one of the reasons .... if you like a play 20 times more than a "normal play" then you obviously should never be betting a "normal play" . In baseball especially , even if you have things figured out .. it can bite you in the arse.

Just thought that since this just happened to me , that it was a good opportunity to illustrate what i have been talking about a lot of the season in baseball in regards to huge favorites and what i know is fact in regards to huge multi unit plays. A lot easier to show what i mean when it is my own wound that i am putting the salt in , if you know what i mean.

tough morning for me and definitely frustrating, I hope it was a better morning for each of you and that we all have a good afternoon and evening.

gl gang.

 

[Blue_Chip]

There are going to be a lot of folks bemoaning the "bad beat" in colorado today , and rightfully so to a degree. But I don't want to talk about the game in particular but want to discuss it in the context of baseball betting in general.....

The colorado game ... i had capped perfectly today. I mean ... close to perfect ... I thought it would be buccholz followed by fuentes and a cash. But Fuentes , a relative stud out of the pen comes in and blows a two run lead to one of the worst offenses in baseball. Guess what ? It happens.

This is why you will consistently see me saying that laying -260 , -270 , -280 on great pitchers like johan santana is madness. It's baseball. The great pitcher can do exactly what you expect and you can still lose ... and I am not saying that it happens infrequently ... it can happen a good percent of the time. Laying huge prices in baseball is for losers.

It took a scenario that i absolutely loved for me to lay a price as big as the one in colorado today ... the game went as expected .. and i lost the bet. Imagine if it had been -250

Think about that ..... the game went as expected and i lost the bet.

This is also why I do not believe in the "10 unit play" "15 unit play" or "20 unit" play. Well one of the reasons .... if you like a play 20 times more than a "normal play" then you obviously should never be betting a "normal play" . In baseball especially , even if you have things figured out .. it can bite you in the arse.

Just thought that since this just happened to me , that it was a good opportunity to illustrate what i have been talking about a lot of the season in baseball in regards to huge favorites and what i know is fact in regards to huge multi unit plays. A lot easier to show what i mean when it is my own wound that i am putting the salt in , if you know what i mean.

Ah yes! The retrospect speech, yet no anger? Why? Discipline and the confidence that comes from knowing you are playing correctly (fundamentally and monetarily)... I plan to hear many more of these when I make a trip to the strip

GL the rest of then night, kyle

 

[tuck321]

Absolutely hate the BIG BET theory of games. Sometimes you must step up but it is not because you want to but because it is absurd not to. But to be careful and reluctant in these situations is mandatory. GL

 

[RetroVK]

ok ... some days are better than others. 2-5 minus 4.03 units. A few days ago i discussed how i caught a lot of breaks in going 4-0 and the opposite occurred today. Really dont feel bad about how i capped today at all. Sometimes you go all in with two aces and you lose to the Ace-King. Lets take a look.

athletics and under --- Loved how this game was playing out , except Cust hit an extra two-run jack and sonnanstine struggled to get outs. The majority of this bet was the expectation of eveland shutting down the tampa bats. Got that and the win on the side. unfortunately, the A's scored 9 runs. 14 hits.... take that every single time i bet an under. well capped , but lost money on the game... a familiar trend

rockies and under --- jiminez goes 7 strong giving up just 4 hits , and the rockies leave runners all over the place. Then fuentes comes in with a 2-0 lead ( perfect ) but manages to blow it. Once again i think it was well capped and just a bit unfortunate.

bjays -- by far a worse beat than the fuentes blown save. Ahead in the count to vlad marcum gives up a ding dong on a pretty damn good pitch ( guerrero can hit a little folks ) in the first inning. Then .... he walks two guys in front of vlad the next time he comes up and proceeds to serve up a meatball to him that vlad crushes for a 3 run shot. Toronto was the better team today. 11 hits to 4 and i believe they had an additional walk advantage. double plays and untimely strikeouts killed them. Again , feel a tad bit unlucky in this one but i would bet this again at the same price.

cubs --- jumped out to a 3-0 lead and had chacon up against the ropes having thrown in the high twenty pitchcount in the first inning. But they let him off the hook by swinging early in the count each of the two following innings and chacon settled down and was not tired. Gallagher had control problems and i dont mean with walks ... he was nibbling corners on bad hitters like towles and matsui and throwing the ball over the center of the plate to tejada , berkman and lee. lee punished one of these mistakes and thats all she wrote. Chacon was the better pitcher today after he settled down.

reds --- Havent looked to see what happened but it looks like another woeful road hitting performance by the red stockings. I was too busy watching the nba game.

updated baseball record

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 35-32 -3.58 units
dogs 34-27 +14.20 units
overs 6-5-2 +1.00 units
unders 26-9-1 +15.80 units

 

[askias]

So what you're saying is you would not lay -230 today with Dice K at home? :36_11_6:

 

[Blue_Chip]

It's time to post your may 22 baseball

I need some morning reading material as I try to avoid work. I hate this job...

 

[RetroVK]

askias -ill be betting the royals lol.

BC -my may 22 baseball thread may just say .....

"tail bluechip"