Time to post my friday April 4th baseball

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 2-0 +2.00
dogs 5-6 +0.38
overs 0-0
unders 1-0-1 +1.00


ok i have already bet the braves at -135. There are several reasons that I really this play but there are a few concerns here as well. Lets get the bothersome negativity out of the way .... Maine has pitched pretty well vs the braves bats in the past and the mets have actually hit hudson pretty decently in the past. Not a formula that i usually look to bet against. But this is what being an ace is all about .. showing up when your team needs a big win and going out there with your good stuff. Hudson pitched really well in the season opener against the nats while picking up the no decision. If you couple that with last years april ... he is very solid early in the year. last april hudson pitched 45 innings , 29 hits , and just 7 er allowed. in the opener he gave up 3 hits and allowed 2 er ... you do the math ... he is an april stud. What I really think is a huge disparity between these two particular pitchers is that hudson simply eats innings and is VERY difficult to run out of the game. in 32 of his 34 starts last year , hudson faced atleast 23 batters. This is desperately needed , and couldnt come at a better time for the braves as the bullpen has been used often early this year and with little success. Maine failed to reach 6 innings pitched or more in 14 of his 32 starts. Hudson failed to pitch 6 innings or more in just 6 of 34 starts. More likely for maine to get tagged early than hudson and far more likely to get more innings pitched from the mets bullpen than the braves. Gonna ride hudson here at a reasonable price and hope he continues his history of strong april pitching.
 
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Any concern about how much the pen has been used this week and the lack of success its had? The biggest difference with Hudson has been health the past season +. John Maine was exceptional all ST and was overshadowed by the addition of Johan Santana and return of Pedro. However he seems to be the guy pitching the best for them ever since he put on a Met uniform. He had like a 1.40 ERA this ST with 33 Ks in 28 or so innings...basically seems to be improving still...last year 32 starts only 9 allowed more then 3 runs and 5 were in the last 2 months when he had some hiccups more inconsistencies..ATL has now lost 3 games in the last inning...
 
Not disagreeing just alot of chatter here in nY about how good Maine looked this ST and he was pretty good last year already. Would have been exceptional had he not had some rough outings late...
 
Yes I have concern about the braves bullpen but as i said ... it is mitigated by the fact that hudson simpy eats innings. You cant run him off in 5 innings or 4 innings. And it is actually the fact that i expect the mets bullpen to pitch atleast an inning more than the braves ( not including bottom half of ninth hopefully ) bullpen that gives the bet more value.

last year 32 starts only 9 allowed more then 3 runs

This stat is pretty deceiving. Because it does not take into accoung all of the tiny outtings he had ... giving up 3 runs in 4.1 innings is not as good an outting as giving up 4 runs in 7 innings. Here are some of his games that fall under the 23 games where he allowed 3 runs or less.

april 9 home to phillies 4.2 innings pitched 2 runs allowed
may 15 home to cubs 5 innings pitched 3 runs allowed
aug 15 at pitt 5 innings pitched 3 runs allowed
aug 21 home to padres 5.2 innings pitched 3 runs allowed
aug 26 home to dodger 5.2 innings pitched 3 runs allowed
sep 23 at florida 5 innings pitched 3 runs allowed

to me those arent great days unless you have great confidence in mets middle relief. Maine has not gone over 5 innings pitched in 5 of his last 6 road games.

It is actually the fact that i think the braves can hit the mets bullpen that adds a lot of value to the game.

Maine is a decent pitcher but he walks guys too ... he walked 2 or more guys in 10 of his last eleven starts and again ... we are talking VERY limited innings per start over that stretch.

Maine could go out and pitch a great game .... but it is not reasonable for me to assume he can duel with hudson deep into the game. Odds are he exits earlier in some fashion .. whether its pitch count , or getting hit.

We can assume with some confidence that hudson goes 7. So while i am concerned about the braves bullpen .... if it comes to that bullpen to start the sixth inning or earlier than the cat is already out of the bag for me ......... counting on the pitcher here to grind out innings.
 
Cant say I recall why Maine was struggling late last year but he clearly was. True my point about his outings was LOOSE but only 2 of those starts you mentioned came early on and I know he didnt come out of ST last year throwing like he is now but his April was sick. The Phills game he couldnt throw strikes and got pulled I think I was even at that one. Still he allowed just 2 runs in basically 5 innings thanks to getting out of the jam ( think it was bases loaded). In todays game 3runs in 5 innings isnt really that bad. Statistically it is but of thats the worse your gonna do its not that bad, You still keep your team in the game. I think Maine goes at least 6 which is what I assume you figured but he has been sharp enough to go 7 if he pitches well. Hudson I dont foresee going more then 7 and both have tough lineups to face. Granted Hudson has a slight edge making his 2 real start. Also agree he is there STOPPER / ACE and needs to get them WINS when they are struggling but again his only responsible for about 3/4 of the pitching. Soriano didnt get much work this ST and want to see him on B2B days..

Maine before the break last year had 7 starts where he went at least 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less of which 5 were on the road. In 17 1st H starts he went less then 6 innnings just 4 times and only that Phily start did he not last 5 . He went 7 + in 9 of the 17 starts. In 12 of the 17 he lasted at least 6 inn and allowed 2 runs or less...I guess what I am saying is he again looks like that pitcher. Not the guy who finished terribly. The Mets were also 8-1 in Maines 1st H road starts...so pitching away is not a problem for him by any means and one of his good 2nd H starts was @ ATL in late August followed by a good showing in Sept. His 1st start in early AUgust wasnt as bad as the stats say . He led 2-1 to start the 5th and gave up a 3run HR to Chipper and then a solo shot to Teixiera ...Beltran was out that day....

I dont think its a bad play but this could be a 1run game and ATL pen scares the shit out of me. Though on paper it looks better then NYs...guess I am gonna look at the uNDER closely and specifically the 1st 5 under ...probably get alot of the Mets are great because they won 13-0 and ATL stinks because :cheers:they lost and are 1-3 mentality here...

GL VK
 
thanks nut... great info .. and you are definitely right ... there is a HUGE difference between maines first and second halves last year.

mets obviously can win the game .. great lineup , pretty decent pitcher. Its baseball for heavens sake ... just taking everything into consideration thought the line showed value. gl with the first five under.
 
ok here is the next game on my list .... another favorite ....coming into today 11 of my first 13 plays were dogs .... but have to bet where i think the value is .... here it is

marlins -122 --
ok .. not a fan of playing a bad team as a favorite but i like this situation for the marlins. The marlins are at home with a day of rest following their series with the mets. They send scott olsen to the mound. Olsen has pitched pretty well against pittsburgh save Adam Laroche. Laroche is 6 of 10 with 3 homers against olsen so i look for the marlins to pitch around laroche a little. Laroche doesnt mind swinging at a few out of the zone so they might get a cheap out but look for laroche to get alteast one walk in this game .. maybe even 2. The reason is that no one else on the team has shown the ability to hit olsen. The remainder of the club bats just .220 against him with just 3 extra base hits in 68 at bats. In addition , the pirates havent seen olsen since 2006 where they met him twice. In those two combined starts olsen pitched 12.2 innings , gave up 12 hits , allowed just 3 earned runs and struck out an amazing 20 batters. If he pitches around laroche there is no reason to believe the pirates should have him figured out now. From a pitching standpoint it gets even better with matt morris getting the ball for the pirates. The marlins have hit him well and hit him hard. The marlins have 26 hits in 89 at bats against morris and half ( 13 ) of those hits were for extra bases. They bat .292 against him. In his lone game against florida last year he got rocked. 7 innings , 13 hits and 6 er. Now miguel cabrera was a big part of that game going 4 of 5 with a solo homer and he is no longer in florida as we all know. Morris was bad on the road last year giving uo 5 or more earned runs in 7 of his last 9 away. Pitt is less rested than florida and travel into town after a nice little series with the braves ... i think the performance in that series has given us some extra value in the line. Morris is a walking gas can and i cant help but bet against him on the road at this price. just begging .... dont give laroche anything to hit.
 
BOL, VK

Kinda leaning the Mutts way myself, but haven't played anything. Unfortunately, i've been able to make too good of a case (to myself) for both sides...so that's why i've layed off it.

Was leaning towards the Fish earlier too, just softly.
 
thanks ramble , yanks.

i am very intrigued by the mariners/orioles game and have some strong angles in that game. it is currently off the board as the books are unsure if it will be trachsel or loewen tomorrow for the O's. After i see the line and confirm the pitchers i will do a full write up.
 
it's trachsel...and it's been known for fucking hours. (i'm pissed i haven't been able to play it tongiht, if u can't tell.)
 
thanks. saw him listed at an odds site but not up at cris/greek/pinny/etc

ill be on the O's. favorite play of the day tomorrow.
 
hehehe .. hey yanks you got aim ?? if you are a night owl thought maybe we could get eachothers thoughts on some of these games each night.
 
im going to bed now but ill private message ya tomorrow and exchange screennames with ya so we can do it ... its real easy and we should be able to help each other find some value we might have otherwise missed .
 
cant argue about the side, from top to bottom the bravos probably have a better line up than the mets and huddy has always owned the mets. Definitely think the under in that game is a solid option because Maine I think will continue to grow into a better pitcher and vs a team he's done well against in the past. Olsen pretty good #'s vs the Pirates. BOL vk
 
official plays

marlins -120 ( olsen ) pitchers listed (morris )
orioles +125 (trachsel ) pitchers listed (washburn )
braves -135 ( hudson ) pitchers listed ( maine )
giants/brewers over 8.5 -115 ( sanchez/villanueva )

thoughts on orioles and the total incoming. gl everyone.
 
Good Luck VK . I at times like playing the contrarian voice so dont think I am opposite or against you unless I say so. Sometimes I just like to have both sides "written" out and ask myself what path looks most probable for the game...

I think ATL does have value after looking at the entire "picture" Probably could have opened Hudson -140 for fair value but asI mentioned last night probably some Mets are awesome perception and ATL stinks perception going on after the 1st series keeping it down some.

So I just may be joining you on that ATL side. Still like the 1st 5 UNDER but gonna wait till later on that...

The rest of your card is basically exactly what I was thinking. Especially Florida and over @ Milw. Not sure about the BALT play just yet because I think I prefer the UNDER but definetly with SEATTLE flying EAST for the 1st time you might see a flat spot for them in the opener. Think BALT may struggle with LHs but the O's actually look like they may have a nice edge in the pen..

GL
 
ok lets take a peak at the giants at the brewers and why i like the over here. It is nor easy to count on the giants offense to produce a ton of runs so this is a total that is definitely hard to pull the trigger on ... and oddly enough it is the first over bet i have made this year. First lets get the stadium and the weather out of the way. Definitely a hitters park in mulwaukee so we have that. Secondly , the wind is blowing out significantly towards center field ..or right center field. It is a day game which would normally be a good thing for the over but the gametime temp is going to be around 53 degrees or so .... that helps the pitchers. So lets talk about the pitchers. For the giants its jonathon sanchez a left-handed kid that is converting from the bullpen to a starter. Very unlikely that he goes too many innings because of this and the fact that he has TERRIBLE control problems. He likes to give the free base and that could mean men on for the long ball for milwaukee who love to hit against lefties. I dont think the giants middle relief is bad at all but i suspect they will have to use several pitchers and it is unlikely that they all have shutdown stuff today. Very small sample size as far as at bats against sanchez but what they have seen , they have hit .... batting over .400 against him. Last year coming in out of the bullpen a lot for one or two batters or one inning he still gave up 57 hits and 28 walks in just 52 innings pitched. He can throw as hard as he can in those spots and is often called upon to get out lefties specifically. Instead of that normal situation that favors him he now faces a team that hit lefties well .... a bad situation. no reason this guy doesnt get pounded today that i can find. Carlos villanueva goes for the brewers and he has pretty decent stuff but he is also attempting to convert from bullpen to starting pitching ..... Usually in games involving two ex-bullpen guys in starting roles , you can expect a short outing from atleast one of them .... the game often turns into a game pitched by committee. Villanueva pitched well last year but guess which team was one of the best at hitting him ? you guessed it .... the giants. Now its bullpen stats so the number of innings is limited ... but in 3.1 innings he gave up 5 hits , 3 walks , and 5 earned runs. The giants likely bats today bat .357 against villanueva. Again it is a very limited total number of at bats so have to take that with a grain of salt. Not positive about who will be behind the dish but have to love this total. stadium -check. wind blowing out -check , teams abt well vs opposing pitchers -check , likely to see bullpens early -check .. too much to like to lay off this total despite what appears to be a bigger strike zone in mlb this year. if the roof is closed today ... even better.



btw it looks like welke behind the plate which is not the ideal ump for us ... believe he is an under to neutral guy. ugh.
 
Hey VK , good writeup bro. Basically same thought process. SF had chances to score runs in LAD but never got hits with MOB hopefully a better chance at doing so vs Villaneuva who was great last year but was so-so in ST. I tend to like fading pitchers of Latin decent in cold weather if they dont have power stuff. Cueto yesterday different story throwing 95 in 45 degree weather is a plus . A guy not that used to pitching in cold , cool weather and 50 isnt cold but it nots like the guys will have a great feel for the ball. Which takes away a bit from there offspeed / breaking stuff IMO....

Noticed Welke has a strange trend in that in that inninsg 1-6 usually when the SP is on teh mound he avgs slightily above 6 runs but the reason he becomes an "UNDER or NEUTRAL " UMP is because teh last 3 innings he allowes below 3 runs seemingly ever year. I wonder does he open up his strike zone latter in games ? It sure seems that way when you look at the breakdowns when it happens 3 of the 4 past years in obvious fashion..sometimes not even an intentional thing but it appears that scoring decreases last few innings with him...

2007 6.43 thru 6 and 2.71
2006 6.08 thru 6 and 2.74
2005 5.83 thru 6 and 3.26
2004 6.24 thru 6 and 2.27
2003 7.27 thru 6 and 3.18

I am sure alot of the numbers play out like this for UMPS with them seeing lowernumbers at the end of games but it seems abit more then normhere...

Anyway went 1st 5 INN over 4.5 -115 {2U} and game over 8.5 -120 {1u} along with SFG +1.5 -110 {1u}

really think we see a 5-4 game here..BOL
 
dont go braves over mets....the mets lineup eats up pitches. if you look at the first few games of the season, the starters against them didnt go past the 5th inning. and cox has been using the bullpen like an emergency starter so far. plus maine's last start of the 07 season almost ended in a no-hitter. the guy has some nasty stuff.

should be a good game though. goodluck
 
thanks nut ,

great info on welke. hope the first innings pan out with the trend but that the bullpens get action. likely a brewer win today so will need 9 in 8.5 innings. hehe.

agree with your thoughts on the dodger series as well .... the day cain pitched they had double digit hits ... just kept gettting into double plays lol.
 
santa , dmoney , blue chip , renew, sports , ramble , yanks ... thanks for all the good luck :)
 
sir visch a lot said:
dont go braves over mets....the mets lineup eats up pitches. if you look at the first few games of the season, the starters against them didnt go past the 5th inning. and cox has been using the bullpen like an emergency starter so far. plus maine's last start of the 07 season almost ended in a no-hitter. the guy has some nasty stuff.

should be a good game though. goodluck
Click to expand...

Might be a good point but your also comparing Hendrickson , Vanden Hurk and Andrew Miller to Tim Hudson. Youngsters and a vet who has stuck around I think more because he is a 6'10 LH then anything else. At this point neither has even above average command let alone that of Tim Hudsons... interested to see more how the Pagan's , Church's , Castillo's and Scheinders of the world do here then anything else vs a quality SP ( combined 12 for 52 vs Huddy in previous stops)...they all had good if not great series in Miami.:shake:
 
wow, jon sanchez , the "living walk factory" has 8 k's through 4 innings. Guess i underestimated the power of welke behind the plate. wow.
 
ok some thoughts on the mariners at orioles game. different style of writeup for this one as i will just make some points as to why i bet the O's here.

WHY I DONT LIKE WASHBURN HERE

-Trembley said earlier in the week that he was going to load the lineup with righthanded bats for the mariners lefties. moore and fahay should get some action.

-most of the likely orioles bats have performed well against washburn. They bat .291 against him.

-Jarrod washburn does not perform in hitters parks. This is both undeniable and explainable. Without question baltimore plays in a hitters park. Here are washburns games last year in hitters parks...

june 12 at cubbies ..........6 innings , 5 hits, 5 bb, 0 hr , 2 er..... checked weather it was nice and wind was only 8mph so decided this was a hitters day in wrigley.

june 17 at houston .........3 innings , 6 hits , 3 bb , 1hr , 6 er
july 24 at texas ..............5.2 innings , 8 hits , 3 bb , ohr , 3 er
aug 10 at white sox ........6.2 innings 7 hits , 2bb , 3 hr , 5 er
aug 26 at texas ............ 6 innings , 6 hits , 0bb , 1 hr , 3 er
aug 31 at toronto ...........3,1 innings , 7 hits , 5bb , 3 hr , 6 er

As you can see , he struggles mightily at the hitters parks... it would be worse if i were to count yankees a hitters park but i consider it more neutral. Now why is it that he struggles in these stadiums besides the obvious fact that they are hitters parks to begin with ?? There is one main reason .... and that is that Jarrod washburn is a MAJOR FLYBALL pitcher. That tends to not play well in small houses and it gets into his head some when he plays in these type of parks. Just look at his walks !! he doesnt have confidence in his stuff so he tries to be too fine .. 18 walks in 30.2 innings is just pitching scared.

- washburn lost his last 5 away games last year

-washburn faced the orioles twice last year and got spanked both times. here are his stats from each of those games and note they were played in the huge stadium back in seattle .....

june 6th ...........4.2 innings pitched , 9 hits , 5 er
july 18th .........6.1 innings pitched , 8 hits 5 er

note he got rocked in those two games without walking anyone ... he throws more strikes when in big stadiums. Why does he mow them down today ?

-Seattles first game of the road trip traveling from west coast all the way to east coast

SO WHY DO I PREFER TRACHSEL VS A BETTER SEATTLE LINEUP ?

- first thing is that the mariners have not hit him well ... just .266 as a team. sexson and suzuki have had decent luck against him however

-he pitched vs seattle just once last year and it was not a great game but he did pitch out of trouble. stat line is as follows ........... 5.2 innings , 8 hits , 2er , 3bb

- unlike washburn , trachsel is a ground ball pitcher. Not suprisingly he does well vs opponents when in smaller stadiums.
here are his stat lines last year in this stadium... at home....

april 12 royals ........... 7 innings , 3 hits , 1 bb , 0hr 1 er
april 22 blue jays .........5.1 innings , 4 hits , 4bb , 1hr ,1 er
may 7 indians ............6 innings , 6 hits , 1bb , 1 er , 0 hr
may 23 bluejays .........6 innings , 5 hits , 0bb , 0hr , 2 er
june 8 rockies ............. 6 innings , 7 hits , 1bb , 2er , 1 hr
june 13 nats ................7 innings , 6 hits , 2bb , 1hr , 4er
june 29 angels .............1.2 innings , 9 hits , 0bb, 0hr ,5 er .... ouch he got rocked
july 26 rays .................4,2 innings , 7 hits , 3 bb , 2 hr , 5 er was also in cold streak on the road at time
aug 7 sea ................... 5.2 innings , 8 hits , 3bb , 1 hr , 2er
aug 13 bosox ................6.1 innings , 10 hits , 3bb , 1 hr , 3 er
aug 23 minny .................7.1 innings , 4 hits , 2bb , 0hr , 1 er
aug 29 rays ...................6 innings , 5 hits , 4bb , 0hr , 1er

outside of one streak in the middle of the year he pitched awesome at home. there is a big difference between a ground ball pitcher walking a guy in this park ( double play to save the day ) vs a flyball pitcher walking guys in this park.

-wind is expected to be 15-17mph blowing out to right ... another bad sign for the flyball pitcher.



Dunno based on the numbers one would think the orioles win this game more times than they lose it.... ... seattle has the better lineup but it just looks like a good mathcup for the orioles here. atleast i am hoping so.



BRAVES GAME NOTE
Also according to shortline , holbrook will be umping the braves game ... great news for me there !!!!!!!!
 
ok a great day today.

the braves were rained out which stunk but went 3-0 on the other 3. The best part is that i dont really have to recap them ..... they went exactly as expected pretty much save olsen giving up an extra run and sanchez striking out a bunch of guys ( welke power ). Nice to have a day where it goes as planned .

braves -135 rained out ( kind of lucky since i had a bad number )
orioles +125 winner
marlins -120 winner
giants/brewers ov 8.5 -115 winner

updated baseball record

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 3-0 +3.00
dogs 6-6 +1.63
overs 1-0 +1.00
unders 1-0-1 +1.00
 
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