Time to post my friday april 11 baseball

[RetroVK]

season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 10-4 +5.37
dogs 9-9 +2.23
overs 1-1 EVEN
unders 2-1-1 +0.83 units

ok only one game that i really like today , will examine some weather and umpires later and see if anything pops up. here it is


detroit tigers -110 ----Now I am not as big a fan of dontrelle willis as a lot of folks are but i suspect i will be backing him a lot in his first year in the american league. The white sox have already seen willis this april and willis couldnt throw a strike. He walked 7 guys in 5 innings. But there was a silver lining..... 5 innings and just 1 hit. Even with 7 free passes the white sox could only muster 3 runs on him. He has owned the white sox bats that have seen him. 12 hits in 70 AB for a .171 batting average and thome is just 4/25 off him. It isn't just Willis either..... the white sox were the worst hitting team in the league versus lefties last year. That trend has also continued this year as they bat just .231 vs lefties so far in 2008. Also ,there are two things that i like about willis......1. willis is generally a fast starter. his early year starts for the marlins were always strong and then he would tire as they overpitched him most years. 2. The second reason i like him is related to the first ... with the marlins they let him pitch too many innings early in the year but that also means the guy eats innings and i need that as i dont have a lot of trust in what the tigers bullpen has done this year. Now i think when contreras brings his good stuff that he is very difficult to hit but the tigers lineup hits this guy fairly well with guillen, polanco , cabrera and thomas combining to hit 31 of 72 off of him. contreras had an era of 9.50 vs detroit last year , is a poor april pitcher and was actually a run worse at home as compared to on the road ( A 5.13 era H 6.00 era ). looks good to me. See atleast one capper that I respect a lot on the other side of this one but i have to trust myself.

as i said earlier , might find a total later after finding out umpires and so on.


some thoughts about other games today that i wont be betting

angels/mariners -- When i saw the pitching matchup i thought that i would be playing the under here but these bats actually hit these two pitchers fairly decently. So beware trying to go under an american league 8 runs here, though gun to my head that is what i would do too. Felix Hernandez has 15 innings pitched and zero earned runs allowed .... his record is 0-0.

orioles/rays -- dang it , i loved this spot for the rays ... orioles play a doubleheader yesterday and then have to travel to tampa and face shields tonight. Terrible spot for the orioles. Problem is i dont think you will see me lay -150 or more with the rays all year .... i have been priced out of playing it.

yanks/bosox -- tempted to play the wanger as he is pitching very nicely right now but he seems to struggle in fenway and the yanks just arent hitting right now. Have not seen buchholz either. lean under here but betcrimes has some stickied info at top of forum that gives me pause there too. Besides i hate unders in this stadium.

good luck today folks ... for a big card .... i dont like much.

 

[chancedog]

:cheers: BOL Vega

 

[Dmoney416]

Interesting game here - BOL today VK.

 

[reNew Orleans]

bol vk, lol for such a big card I seem to like a lot. the wind in chicago could be a big factor. gusty 20+ in... i forget from where. It could change by gametime but thats the projection

 

[RetroVK]

20-25 mph blowing in from right ...temperature is cool too. willis playing all those years in warm florida ... have not checked his cold weather performances.

 

[Bailey81]

GL today VK.

 

[RetroVK]

official plays

detroit -107


considering the over in cleveland along with another total and i try not to edit "official plays" posts so those plays may be listed in later posts if needed.

good luck today gang

 

[SportsNut]

Good Luck VK. Havent done all that much research yet. A couple comments though ...

I like your point about backing Willis in the AL being he has such a herky jerky type delivery that has to make a batter uncomfortable the first few times they see him(especiialy LHs). I think that helped him have such great early quick success. The big problem is and something I thought the first time I saw him was how in the hell is gonna be able to repeat his mechanics with that leg kick on a consistent basis. Thats the SP in me . If he cant repeat his mechanics then he will lose velocity from inconsistent arm slots and having his arm behind or ahead of his body but worse is he will basically be guessing where the ball is going as it will fuck up his command. I think this is exactly what has caused his struggles the past few seasons. Inconsisent mechanics lead to poor command and inconsistent velocity. So how will switching leagues alone change that ? Clearly it wont but the "deception" aspect should help him short term. Maybe a new pitching coach can get him to tweak his mechanics some so its easier to repeat but until that happens I dont see Willis as much more then a medicore SP. His fast starts were probably attributed to the same aspect. You go to camp and get in tune with your mechanics as the season progresses and you wear down much tougher to repeat them and coupled with the "deception" aspect that loses it benefit the more he is seen. This is one of those teams where someone in the teams scouting dept should open there mouth and say Willis reckless mechanics are a huge issue because I bet any scout looking at him isnt overly impressed with his stuff and present talent as a pitcher . I am sure most would pass on drafting him especially in a signifcant round.

One thing with CHI is the were using LHB alot in CF and LF with Podsenik , Erstad (1b/Of)and Mackowiak and even others in past seasons( Brian Anderson or Joe Borchard before that). Now you have Swisher , Quentin ( who suprisingly has struggled vs LH so far in his career) , and even the youngster Alexei Ramirez. So in that sense they have upgraded themselves vs LHP. They also acquired Orlando Cabrera who has done well in the past vs LHP who brings alot more then say Iguchi did from a MI . Crede should be closer to his 2006 splits but Josh Fields tore up LHs in his absence. You get consistent solid contributions from Dye and Konerko and they have the makings of a lineup that should greatly improve vs LHs with the ability to bat 7 RH' s now.

Nothing to do with agreeing or disagreeing with the play just simple comments on the makeup of teams since this year alot of teams seem to be forging new profiles from years past.

In Seattle huge issue for me is the travel back from TB to Seattle without any rest. It could be somewhat negated I guess by the early start time in TB though not sure.

With Balt there a team definetly looking to go against when LHP opposes them and quality RHP which Shields would apply. I dont think the price is all that hefty when TB was favored in Baltimore ..O's will be lucky or suprise me if they won more then 30 road games and TB should be in the mid 40s...

Bucholz supposedly didnt look good all spring and then pitched poorly in his 1st start. I dont like NYY vs power pitchers with very good fastballs and dont think either team is hitting much at all. Boston probably due to the flatness from all there travel and NYY probably due to cold weather and injuries(plus faced some good SP). Boston has done real well in April vs the Yanks but I do feel this year is different because Bos had the Japan ORDEAL. The Sox SP is banged up and is the Yanks lineup. Intriguing game but the bad forecast makes me leary to even waste time looking at . Manny and orti both smoke Wang because there is no mystery to Wang its basically his low to mid 90s 2 seamer everytime and most cant hit it but when your looking at two MVP types its no suprise they hit him so well. Wang needs to prove himself on the road and this year he survived camp and started the season healthy and you get a better understanding of just how good Wang is but also could be with better consistency away from the STADIUM . So while Wang has troubles away and some @ Fenway with a smaller sample size its much easier to make sense of them and see if we can weed out some starts that were made when he wasnt his right . Meaning he was returning from an injury or playing catchup out of ST , little things that get lost ....Since I did check nothing stands out . He just hasnt pitched well there but only real poorly once..otherwise just very medicore with a decent outing or two..

Real tough spot for NY in some ways because Wang seemed to tire in the 7th vs TB and Joba went 1.1 and 24 pitches yesterday. He was somewhat off with command but the stuff was electric still . So a mini test if we ned to Joba and Mo to get the last 6 outs IMO. The rest of the pen has been fairly involved and probably could use a day more rest.

BOL VK!

 

[SportsNut]

Also with Wang supposedly this year he was much more comfortable and loosened up. Sometimes comfort factor goes a long way in reaching your peak potential. Also I believe he lost hs arbitration case and we know how touchy that can be. When your employer emphasizes your weak points . Some comments about Wangs low strikeout totals which he said he wouldnt change anything but I do think it would be a benfit to him as a SP if he was able to K more batters as anytime the ball is put in a play something bad can happen..bloop hit , grounder finds a hole , player makes a n error , etc...

 

[RetroVK]

-- will the white sox be better against lefties this year ? yes. they hit .242 as a team against them last year ... they cant be worse.

they are still heavily dependent on thome to drive in runs ... .206 vs lefties last 3 years , under .200 last year.

if youthink orlando cabrera hits lefties as well this year compared to last you are on some good mushrooms. the guy was hitting in fromt of vlad guerrero all year last year ... now i am no genius but if i am a left handed pitcher orlando cabrera is going to see a lot of balls in the zone. he doesnt have that kind of protection this year and i guarnatee that his numbers vs lefties goes down. i guarantee it.

i dont know , maybe i am nuts for not having a ton of ocnfidence in ramirez but ... come on.

so yeah , they will improve this year vs lefties ... maybe even hit .265 of so ... but thats not where i want to put my money when they are playing lefties unless i get a situation or a price that i like. i get neither here.

as far as willis .. i think you are right .. his high leg kick eliminates any chance he has for consistent delivery and his mechanics falter as a result. I still think he has good stuff ... and he would get drafted in decent shape ... its a goodleft handed arm for heavens sake ... they can pitch for 5 years after their arm dies do to shortage of good ones.

oh well , maybe i am wrong but i doubt it.

in fact i am willing to make an "avatar bet " with anyone who doesnt think that the white sox finish in the bottom 10 in batting average vs lefties this year in mlb ( eliminating pitcher at bats in the national league of course ).

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Damn, kyle, last time I went against your tigs pick was their only win. I'm opposed again. Countin' on some (as in lots) walks from Dontrelle and his followers tonight.

Enjoy the games, either way!

 

[RetroVK]

thanks tip .. willis is capable of walking a ton .. especially with left to right wind shift it looks like.

 

[G-Man]

GL on Tig's

 

[SportsNut]

-- will the white sox be better against lefties this year ? yes. they hit .242 as a team against them last year ... they cant be worse.

they are still heavily dependent on thome to drive in runs ... .206 vs lefties last 3 years , under .200 last year.

if youthink orlando cabrera hits lefties as well this year compared to last you are on some good mushrooms. the guy was hitting in fromt of vlad guerrero all year last year ... now i am no genius but if i am a left handed pitcher orlando cabrera is going to see a lot of balls in the zone. he doesnt have that kind of protection this year and i guarnatee that his numbers vs lefties goes down. i guarantee it.

i dont know , maybe i am nuts for not having a ton of ocnfidence in ramirez but ... come on.

so yeah , they will improve this year vs lefties ... maybe even hit .265 of so ... but thats not where i want to put my money when they are playing lefties unless i get a situation or a price that i like. i get neither here.

as far as willis .. i think you are right .. his high leg kick eliminates any chance he has for consistent delivery and his mechanics falter as a result. I still think he has good stuff ... and he would get drafted in decent shape ... its a goodleft handed arm for heavens sake ... they can pitch for 5 years after their arm dies do to shortage of good ones.

oh well , maybe i am wrong but i doubt it.

in fact i am willing to make an "avatar bet " with anyone who doesnt think that the white sox finish in the bottom 10 in batting average vs lefties this year in mlb ( eliminating pitcher at bats in the national league of course ).

You can always be worse especially when it comes to hitting LHP just look at KC. My Yanks arent very good either .

My only point is they have switched the makeup of there lineup from previous years when they basically always had 4 LHBs in there now they will have just 2 Thome and AJ who actually isnt terrible vs LHs. So that alone will help them show improvement and no matter how long you go back its been LHB playing CF and LF for them but not anymore so thats why they have been poor for awhile.

No one thinks Orlando Cabrera is a beast and sure he was helped by hitting in front Vlad but also its one of those theories thats abit of overhyped IMO. First every pitcher after the 1st inning will make an extra effort to retire Cabrera so they dont have to face Vlad or face him with MOB so it can work both ways. Clearly I understand your point but he 257 , 282 and 301 hitting in the same spot. He didnt overacheive any if you look at the numbers. Second the point was mainly he is an upgrade over Iguchi who really struggled vs LHP past 2 seasons.

So you take Cabrera instead of Iguchi , Swisher instead of the plethra of LH CFs they have used , Anderson , Erstad , Mackowiak , etc and whoever they use in LF is an upgrade of Podsenik whether its Ramirez or Quentin even Fields at some point ( 320 11 Hrs vs LH last yr) they have on paper improved dramatically especially since Dye and Konerko hit LHs very well. Crede was hurt last year and even with those bad numbers still a 270 lifetime hitter vs LHP and in 06 hit 270 with 10 HRS. So thats a solid middle of the order the problem is why does Thome hit 3rd ? Why not 5th ? and AJ 7th with Crede seperating them. They are not below avg vs LHP at this point.

Take it for what it worth it had nothing to do with you liking DET or Willis as I already mentioned. I just wouldnt weigh heavily what Chi did in the past vs LHP since it has changed the balance of its lineup. If guys like Swisher and Uribe return to the better career avgs and whoever plays LF progresses they should hit LHP fairly well.

Not a big fan of Willis arm its slightily above avg for a LH. Guys that were power pitching studs like Ryan and Unit were only 500 ish pitchers when they regulary had boxscores that read 5 + inn 1 hit and 7 bbs and Willis isnt in that category. The kid has talent but he went from an ALL Star to a 5 starter pretty quickly. Last year RHs hit 320 off him . he also didnt make it past the 1st inning in a start vs the WSox last year.

Guess if anything I just disagree with the logic of the play and how you view the Wsox...

GL :shake:

 

[RetroVK]

guess we will wait and see .... i say they finish in bottom ten in average vs lefties. So we are in definite disagreement about whether they are going to be average vs lefties this year.

no problem with us disagreeing ....gonna happen a lot over the course of a season , i suppose.

gl tonight with whatever you bet.

 

[SportsNut]

Good hit VK.

So true no individualism if we always agree. Like I said in the beginning for the most part we tend to think alike . I cant say if they will finish in the bottom 10 vs LHs but I can say I dont think they will be below avg. The only problem I see with them vs LHs is batting Thome 3rd. Otherwise loking at Dye and Konerko past seasons there is no reason to depend on him vs LHs.

Konerko '07 296 12 hr 25 rbi 988 OPS
Dye '07 292 8 Hr 22 rbi 922 OPS

Dye '06 337 15 hr 35 rbi 1.075 OPS
Konerko '06 308 14 Hr 38 Rbi 938 OPS

Uribe '07 257 7 hr 22 rbi

Crede '05 and '06 (265abs) 275 14hrs 47 rbi

Swisher '07 and '06
291 6 hr 22 rbi 922 OPS
291 8 hr 26 rbi 909 OPS

Cabrera
308 4 hr 21 RBI 823 OPS
Granted he stunk in 05 and of vs LHs he did post the same splits in 04 .

So if you get any sort of development from LF with Quentin who was a pretty big Zona prospect and / or A.Ramirez you dont have far to go to exceed what Podsenik was doing for them vs LHs and if by some chance they dont you have even Ozuna who outproduced Pods and Fields in the background. .


Which leaves AJ and Thome who by the way blasted 2 Hrs off Sabathia in the opener. AJ should hit at least 250 vs LHs and Thome is all or nothing. Tough to tell with him hit 236 and 239 but fell off when he got hurt to the 190s...06 didnt exactly play that much....

To me another team with to many like hitters and no true leadoff hitter

Swisher @ 291 LYR
Cabrera @ 302 LYR
Thome @ 230ish ? ( 236 , 239 , 254 before the injury plagued 06)
Dye @ 290
Konerko @ 290
AJ @ 250
Crede @ 270
Uribe @ 250
Ozuna , Quentin or Ramirez...

teams I think should be worse vs LHP then WSox

SD , KC , Cle , Oak , TB , Cincy , KC , Pitt , probably the Mets till Alou returns , Texas , Balt and STL....

So I dont think the finish as a bottom 10 offense vs LH we can have a simple bet for the sake of being right....:shake:I am more then willing to admit when I am wrong..

Did you know outside of 2007 the Wsox were 2nd in runs vs LH in 06 , 12th in 05 and 7th in 04....and yes last year they stunk at 29th....

 

[Dmoney416]

Good call VK - way to be selective on the big card as well.

 

[RetroVK]

thanks nut, dmoney,

Went 1-0 today plus 1 unit.

detroit -- well willis got hurt right off the bat in the top of the first inning. Lopez came in and pitched and did a great job for the tigers. Later in the game Thome got ejected for arguing balls and strikes. So I certainly cant say i capped the tigers pitching vs the white sox batting well because i had no clue willis would get hurt and lopez would pitch. I can say that i was happy with the detroit bats against contreras ... 11 hits and 5 runs wins the money most of the time. Strange game but ill take the cash.

wish i had bet wanger and the under like i originally thought but we could play the coulda woulda shoulda game all day ... everyday.

Tell you what sportsnut how about a friendly wager. If the white sox finish in the bottom ten in average vs lefties this year you have to have a unlv avatar for a month and if the white sox finish outside the bottom 10 in average vs lefties then i will have a month of using an avatar of the sports team of your choice. Pitcher at bats will not count of course. friendly bet to keep track of.

updated baseball record
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 11-4 +6.37
dogs 9-9 +2.23
overs 1-1 EVEN
unders 2-1-1 +0.83 units