RetroVK
This claim is disputed
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 1-0 +1.00
dogs 2-3 -0.58
overs 0-0
unders 1-0-1 +1.00
Well there are several plays that i like tomorrow and it rates to be a very big card for me. Using a couple of angles that has had some decent results for me in the past for a couple of games ... unfortunately they are not angles that i have tracked religiously per se. First a list of the probable plays and then my one lean .. it is a big list
likely plays
902 cubs -135 lilly
906 braves -115 jurjjens
913 astros +135 rodriguez
921 white sox +140 vasquez
924 orioles -105 cabrera
929 rangers +135 jennings
strong lean
arroyo -110
ok lets look at each game
.
cubs -135 -- First thing is that Lily pitched rally well last spring , though he had lack of run support. He pitched 33 innnings yielding just 21 hits and 1 hr over that stretch including a 7 inning 6 hit 1 er effort against the brewcrew. Overall against milwaukee the cubs went 2-1 when lilly started, with lilly winning both games in the friendly confines. lilly got rocked in nilwaukee but his numbers vs the brewers at home were decent ....12 innings , 11 hits and just 2 er with 9 k's and 4bb. in april last year lilly walked just 5 batters making it his best moth of the season in that dept. In addition the brewers bat just .231 against him. Suppan has struggled some against the cubs bats yielding an avg of .291 and derrek lee just owns the guy. suppan dud pitch well both times last year in chicago and was lit up by them at home. his stats in the two games at wrigley last year were 14 innings , 14 hits and just 2 er. So I give a slight edge to lilly here for the starting pitching. The reality is that i feel the cubs have the best lineup in the national league and possibly the best manager as well. With Derek lee owning suppan i look for the middle of the cubs lineup to create runs and the cubs bullpen to hold it up. wouldnt lay much more than this on this play but i thought it would -150 or so ... so this looks like value to me. plus suppan aint getting any younger. Basically i am looking at a fairly even matchup from the pitchers but i really like the cubs lineup a lot more than the brewers.
braves -115 --There is a chance that jair jurrjens could be a stud as he pitched beautifully last year though rarely pitching a ton of innings. That will be the concern i have most with this game as the braves have used their bullpen extensively already to start the year. But this is one of the underrated angles in baseball ... the pirates have not seen this guy pitch before ... none of them. I love it when pitchers with good stuff change leagues. It will likely take them a trip through the order to figure him out. I like gorzelanny but at the end of last year it looked like either the league had caught up with him a bit or that he got tired Truth be told , the braves have not seen much of gorzelanny either and have not hit him particularly well though he gave up 4 er in 6 innings in his only start in atlanta last year in picking up a loss. Gorzelanny has a strange release angle on his pitches so those few at bats the braves have gotten against this guy should help them immensely. So I am not expecting a ton of baserunners in this game but i have to trust the braves bats more as far as scratching out a couple of runs more than the pirates heading into the bullpens and with the braves bullpen having 2 losses after 2 games , i look for a good performance from them when called on from a motivational standpoint ... no game is a big game this early in the baseball season but if the braves go 0-3 to perennial bottom dwellers washington and pittsbirgh , they have dug themselves an early hole... even if nota big one. i'll play the change of leagues angle here and trust the braves bats to show some patience against gorzelanny.
astros +135 -- This is the other angle that i have loved over the years that i will be using tomorrow ......... i call it the "great stuff to junk stuff angle" . The astros have struggled at the plate the first two games of the year but they have also seen great stuff from peavy and young in the first two games. Maddux at this point in his career can be called somewhat of a junk pitcher ( even if it is intelligent junk ). I like it when batters see great stuff and then get to see average or below average stuff. The ball looks bigger. I also like how well the astros have hit maddux especially the big guys .... carlos lee and lance berkman have combined for 6 homers in 65 at bats against the guy and the stros contact hitters ausmus , wiggington and loretta all see maddux well. So i have the contact hitters getting them on and the power alley guys showing they can hit for power against maddux. maddux is over 40 years old too remember gang ..... the guy has been great but at some point you just lose it .. not saying he has a dead arm but have to think at some point he regresses. i like the houston bats to wake up in a big way in this game. We all know about wandy and the road last year and i hate betting into a trend that consistent. but he did win his last two road games last year while pitching well and if you look at his road games ... he pitched much better in the pitcher parks likes he will be in tomorrow. he had just one outting against the padres last year but pitched very effectively against them ... going 7 innings giving up just 5 hits and allowing 1 er in the win. think i have the younger and, at this point in careers, better pitcher in this game. Wandy far more likely to be getting better while i have NO doubt that maddux will have less stuff this year than in any year previous. There is also no doubt in my mind that the astros have the better lineup. so i look for the astros to find a way to pull this one out. stuff to junk angle in play here.
white sox +140 -- i love vasquez in a dog scenario. The guy is an incredible strikeout pitcher and when he has his best stuff he is next to unhittable. he pitched very well against cleveland last year as well. 17.2 innings pitched , 22 hits and 7 er .... striking out cleveland batters an incredible 22 times in those 17 and 2/3 innings pitched. while i like carmona too , he hasnt pitched well against the white sox ...especially at home where in the two games there last year he was tagged ...10.1 innings , 14 hits ,and 11 er. and the white sox batters seem to have him figured out as a team ... name a guy and he hits carmona well .. the team bats .357 against him. This bet is that vasquez brings his good shit and the white sox continue their good hitting against carmona. Certainly the price looks juicy.
orioles -105 ---This bet is mostly due to the fact that cabrera pitches so well against tampa bay .... shutting htem down completely in 3 of 4 starts last year .. in those 3 good outtings he went 20 innings , gave up just 10 hits and only allowed 4 er . that is impressive. the tampa bats only go .246 against him as well. great pitcher vs batter matchup for the O's in this one. Garza also has good numbers against the orioles but the sample size is too small to matter and atleast some of his success can be attributed to the batters not having seen him before. If Graza is capable of shutting down baltimore then the game goes to the bullpens and i am comfortable with that scenario as well. plays looks easy on paper. shrug.
rangers +135 ---- i commented about this game in the discussion thread but real quickly , i love jason jennings.... why you ask ??? because he is always underrated and i have made a shitload .. and i mean shitload picking my spots betting on this guy ... in fact , i would say that i have made more money from this guys arm than any other single pitcher. He hs some shoulder problems last year and did not pitch well for the astros .. people will remember his outting where he got rocked for a shitload of runs without being able to record an out ... but few will remember that just a few short years ago this guy was the rockies ace. he has surgery in the offseason and pitched really really well for the rangers in the spring. when looking at his numbers remember that this guy has been playing in some of the best hitters parks in mlb. This stadium is going to look like an ocean to him. I am also not a believer in silva and neither are the rangers who .297 off the guy, And with jennings we have another of those situations where the guy has changed leagues and the mariners simply havent seen his stuff. I actually like the rangers to win here, but i feel very confident that the price is a winners bargain at the least. btw .... after seeing bedard stuff and hernandez stuff the "stuff to junk" angle applies to this game as well.
i kind of liked arroyo too .... but haren is also changing leagues ... have thoughts on that matchup somewhat in the discussion thread.
good luck tomorrow gang ... will post the actual numbers when i actually make the bets !! sorry for any typos and stuff but that was a lot of writing.
season record to date:
future - reds over 77 wins 1150 to win 1000
favorites 1-0 +1.00
dogs 2-3 -0.58
overs 0-0
unders 1-0-1 +1.00
Well there are several plays that i like tomorrow and it rates to be a very big card for me. Using a couple of angles that has had some decent results for me in the past for a couple of games ... unfortunately they are not angles that i have tracked religiously per se. First a list of the probable plays and then my one lean .. it is a big list
likely plays
902 cubs -135 lilly
906 braves -115 jurjjens
913 astros +135 rodriguez
921 white sox +140 vasquez
924 orioles -105 cabrera
929 rangers +135 jennings
strong lean
arroyo -110
ok lets look at each game
.
cubs -135 -- First thing is that Lily pitched rally well last spring , though he had lack of run support. He pitched 33 innnings yielding just 21 hits and 1 hr over that stretch including a 7 inning 6 hit 1 er effort against the brewcrew. Overall against milwaukee the cubs went 2-1 when lilly started, with lilly winning both games in the friendly confines. lilly got rocked in nilwaukee but his numbers vs the brewers at home were decent ....12 innings , 11 hits and just 2 er with 9 k's and 4bb. in april last year lilly walked just 5 batters making it his best moth of the season in that dept. In addition the brewers bat just .231 against him. Suppan has struggled some against the cubs bats yielding an avg of .291 and derrek lee just owns the guy. suppan dud pitch well both times last year in chicago and was lit up by them at home. his stats in the two games at wrigley last year were 14 innings , 14 hits and just 2 er. So I give a slight edge to lilly here for the starting pitching. The reality is that i feel the cubs have the best lineup in the national league and possibly the best manager as well. With Derek lee owning suppan i look for the middle of the cubs lineup to create runs and the cubs bullpen to hold it up. wouldnt lay much more than this on this play but i thought it would -150 or so ... so this looks like value to me. plus suppan aint getting any younger. Basically i am looking at a fairly even matchup from the pitchers but i really like the cubs lineup a lot more than the brewers.
braves -115 --There is a chance that jair jurrjens could be a stud as he pitched beautifully last year though rarely pitching a ton of innings. That will be the concern i have most with this game as the braves have used their bullpen extensively already to start the year. But this is one of the underrated angles in baseball ... the pirates have not seen this guy pitch before ... none of them. I love it when pitchers with good stuff change leagues. It will likely take them a trip through the order to figure him out. I like gorzelanny but at the end of last year it looked like either the league had caught up with him a bit or that he got tired Truth be told , the braves have not seen much of gorzelanny either and have not hit him particularly well though he gave up 4 er in 6 innings in his only start in atlanta last year in picking up a loss. Gorzelanny has a strange release angle on his pitches so those few at bats the braves have gotten against this guy should help them immensely. So I am not expecting a ton of baserunners in this game but i have to trust the braves bats more as far as scratching out a couple of runs more than the pirates heading into the bullpens and with the braves bullpen having 2 losses after 2 games , i look for a good performance from them when called on from a motivational standpoint ... no game is a big game this early in the baseball season but if the braves go 0-3 to perennial bottom dwellers washington and pittsbirgh , they have dug themselves an early hole... even if nota big one. i'll play the change of leagues angle here and trust the braves bats to show some patience against gorzelanny.
astros +135 -- This is the other angle that i have loved over the years that i will be using tomorrow ......... i call it the "great stuff to junk stuff angle" . The astros have struggled at the plate the first two games of the year but they have also seen great stuff from peavy and young in the first two games. Maddux at this point in his career can be called somewhat of a junk pitcher ( even if it is intelligent junk ). I like it when batters see great stuff and then get to see average or below average stuff. The ball looks bigger. I also like how well the astros have hit maddux especially the big guys .... carlos lee and lance berkman have combined for 6 homers in 65 at bats against the guy and the stros contact hitters ausmus , wiggington and loretta all see maddux well. So i have the contact hitters getting them on and the power alley guys showing they can hit for power against maddux. maddux is over 40 years old too remember gang ..... the guy has been great but at some point you just lose it .. not saying he has a dead arm but have to think at some point he regresses. i like the houston bats to wake up in a big way in this game. We all know about wandy and the road last year and i hate betting into a trend that consistent. but he did win his last two road games last year while pitching well and if you look at his road games ... he pitched much better in the pitcher parks likes he will be in tomorrow. he had just one outting against the padres last year but pitched very effectively against them ... going 7 innings giving up just 5 hits and allowing 1 er in the win. think i have the younger and, at this point in careers, better pitcher in this game. Wandy far more likely to be getting better while i have NO doubt that maddux will have less stuff this year than in any year previous. There is also no doubt in my mind that the astros have the better lineup. so i look for the astros to find a way to pull this one out. stuff to junk angle in play here.
white sox +140 -- i love vasquez in a dog scenario. The guy is an incredible strikeout pitcher and when he has his best stuff he is next to unhittable. he pitched very well against cleveland last year as well. 17.2 innings pitched , 22 hits and 7 er .... striking out cleveland batters an incredible 22 times in those 17 and 2/3 innings pitched. while i like carmona too , he hasnt pitched well against the white sox ...especially at home where in the two games there last year he was tagged ...10.1 innings , 14 hits ,and 11 er. and the white sox batters seem to have him figured out as a team ... name a guy and he hits carmona well .. the team bats .357 against him. This bet is that vasquez brings his good shit and the white sox continue their good hitting against carmona. Certainly the price looks juicy.
orioles -105 ---This bet is mostly due to the fact that cabrera pitches so well against tampa bay .... shutting htem down completely in 3 of 4 starts last year .. in those 3 good outtings he went 20 innings , gave up just 10 hits and only allowed 4 er . that is impressive. the tampa bats only go .246 against him as well. great pitcher vs batter matchup for the O's in this one. Garza also has good numbers against the orioles but the sample size is too small to matter and atleast some of his success can be attributed to the batters not having seen him before. If Graza is capable of shutting down baltimore then the game goes to the bullpens and i am comfortable with that scenario as well. plays looks easy on paper. shrug.
rangers +135 ---- i commented about this game in the discussion thread but real quickly , i love jason jennings.... why you ask ??? because he is always underrated and i have made a shitload .. and i mean shitload picking my spots betting on this guy ... in fact , i would say that i have made more money from this guys arm than any other single pitcher. He hs some shoulder problems last year and did not pitch well for the astros .. people will remember his outting where he got rocked for a shitload of runs without being able to record an out ... but few will remember that just a few short years ago this guy was the rockies ace. he has surgery in the offseason and pitched really really well for the rangers in the spring. when looking at his numbers remember that this guy has been playing in some of the best hitters parks in mlb. This stadium is going to look like an ocean to him. I am also not a believer in silva and neither are the rangers who .297 off the guy, And with jennings we have another of those situations where the guy has changed leagues and the mariners simply havent seen his stuff. I actually like the rangers to win here, but i feel very confident that the price is a winners bargain at the least. btw .... after seeing bedard stuff and hernandez stuff the "stuff to junk" angle applies to this game as well.
i kind of liked arroyo too .... but haren is also changing leagues ... have thoughts on that matchup somewhat in the discussion thread.
good luck tomorrow gang ... will post the actual numbers when i actually make the bets !! sorry for any typos and stuff but that was a lot of writing.
Last edited:
