time to post my 2007 bowl season card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Bowl season is here. Hope to find the time to make this a really good thread in my first year of contributing at ctg during bowl season. I have FINALLY pretty much completed my bowl capping and as of the time of this writing ... have yet to make a bet. Will update accordingly as I make them. Here are my leans so far. As always, the thread gets life with each quality input from you folks. Also , I would really prefer a lot of input on my talk me offs this time. thanks folks. my bowl unit this year is 800.


LOCKED IN - Nothing so far

Arizona State +3 -115 added 12-20
auburn +3 -115 added 12-20
georgia -7 added 12-20
mississippi state moneyline +135 added 12-20
nevada moneyline +120 added 12-20
oregon state -4 -120 added 12-20
TCU -4 added 12-20
VA TECH -3-115 added 12-20
oklahoma -1/rutgers -4 TEASER added 1-1-08



Strong Leans ( alphabetical )

Arizona State +2.5 or moneyline --played dec 20
Auburn +2.5 or moneyline--played dec 20
Cincy -10.5 eliminated friday dec 21
Georgia -7.5--- played dec 20
Illinois +14
Kentucky -3
mississippi state +3 or moneyline----played dec 20
Nevada +3 or moneyline--played dec 20
Oregon State -4.5---played dec 20
Rutgers -10
TCU -4---played dec 20
Va Tech -3 --- played dec 20

Talk me offs ( alphabetical )
California -3.5
Central michigan +9
michigan st +3.5
missouri -3
ohio state +4.5
oklahoma -7.5
tulsa -5
usf -6.5
 
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Made eight bowl plays today. Was put in some situations where i had to determine value between taking 3 and just playing the moneyline , so i just went where the most value in the line was on those. that resulted in two +3 dogs and two moneyline dogs.

plays made dec 20th...
DOGS
az st +3 -115
auburn +3 -115
nevada moneyline +120
mississippi state moneyline +135

favorites
va tech -3-115
oregon state -4 -120
tcu -4
georgia -7


For the record .. my end of the season power ratings resulted in oklahoma as the highest power rated team at seasons end. Of the 64 bowl teams new mexico was the lowest power rated.

should have some thoughts written up on the nevada upcoming victory in the next day or so.
 
Really like the majority of the plays so far. Miss St. is really growing on me. Would be interested in your Rutgers thoughts as that is a game I see possibly going down to the wire.

GL this bowl season VK - hope its a profitable one for ya.
 
Dmoney -- thanks bud.

What i see in the rutgers game is a match up similar to the ball state at illinois game earlier in the year. A game in which i bet illinois minus double digits, who failed to cover. A bet that I would assuredly make again. Ball State simply cannot stop a solid running game. They are atrocious !!! 99th in the counrty while playing against MAC competition for the most part. In their defense they did play solid running teams in Navy , Illinois and Toledo but also played some very poor rush attacks ( atleast five of their opponents ended the season ranked 71st or worse in rushing offense ). I cannot emphasize this enough ...... they are ranked 99th in the country defending the run while playing in the MAC conference. Rutgers should have a field day of overpowering them. It is very difficult to scheme against being overpowered and Rutgers has shown the ability to hit big pass plays when the safeties cheat. Teel has improved from bungling qb we saw last season. What I mean about ball state and trying to scheme to stop the run is ...... they cannot do it without bringing lots of people to the line of scrimmage.... there is simply no other way ..... the extra time to prepare to stop rutgers is almost meaningless.

On the other side of the ball, you have ball state and their vaunted passing attack with Davis at the helm. This team has been pretty prolific offensively averaging over 284 yards a game through the air and over 31 points per game. Again we are talking MAC defenses here ... not to mention Navy and the nebraska defense ( we didnt know at the time ball state almost beat nebraska just how bad the huskers were on that side of the ball ). And that is the rub here ..... rutgers boasts the number 2 passing defense statistically in the country. Now , I do not believe for a second that they ARE the second best pass defense in the nation ..... but I am quite certain that they are the best pass defense that ball state has faced all year.

So you have a run based offense in rutgers facing an overmatched , atrocious run defense in ball state ..... and you have a pass based offense in ball state facing a pretty solid pass defense in rutgers. The match up favors rutgers dramatically.

So then , I have to ask myself ...... how motivated can rutgers be to face ball state ???? Well, I would say not very much. But Rutgers has incredible leadership with Rice and Schiano and just don't see them letting themselves fall asleep.

In addition , this game is not played until january 5th. I believe this favors rutgers dramatically. Again , rutgers is power run based .... time off should not matter much here......... Ball State is pass based .... have to be concerned with game speed timing. Ball State is more likely to start slow.

So besides some concerns about motivation .... why have i not played this yet ??? I despise ..... DESPISE laying double digits for starters. It just doesn't take much to lose a game when you have such slim margin for error. Davis IS an excellent qb and has the ability to turn my late fourth quarter cover into a backdoor nightmare. The more I consider the match up the more I am leaning to playing it.

so that sort of sums up what i am thinking as far as this game is concerned.
 
Counselor -- I certainly doubt that I know more about the Arizona State program than Bjorks ( he has great information for anyone who has not caught his threads though out the year... worth a look when he posts. ). I do however, have a very good grasp of Texas Longhorn football. Also, I have seen an enormous number of games played by these two teams... so i do have some insight beyond just the box scores and endof year stats. I will post as the game nears some of my thoughts on this one but not only do I think the match up favors Arizona State .... I also think motivation will. That is likely the area where Bjorks and I will disagree ( though i have no idea what hsi thoughts on the gamne are yet ). General perception will be asu got snubbed and doesnt want to play this game. But I don't think the sun devils have any trouble getting up for the Texas Longhorns ......... and not to be arrogant ( i am a bit of a longhorn fan ) but the horns simply cannot get too excited about playing arizona state.

my biggest concern in this game is actually that brown might give more playing time to talented younger ( highly touted )players who are likely to have improved during the time between games. I will have a lot of good thoughts on this game later in the thread.
 
Thanks for the great write-up on the Rutgers tilt. I'll have to look hard at their opponents to see how legitimate that #2 passing ranking is.
 
im on a few of these with you bro..just waiting to see what the numbers do..gl this bowl season bro!
 
Thanks for the great write-up on the Rutgers tilt. I'll have to look hard at their opponents to see how legitimate that #2 passing ranking is.

Their opponents are pretty far from passing juggernauts this year. I do feel this is the best pass defense that Ball State will face this year.

Huntdog --- lets make some monies !!!!!!
 
Ok , time to look at the nevada/unm game saturday afternoon. As you know, I have played Nevada on the moneyline ....... and I have also played them quite high in my confidence pool. I love this game. Here is why....

First lets take a look at new mexicos schedule.<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>September 1</TD><TD>at UTEP </TD><TD>L 10-6</TD><TD>0-1 (0-0)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>September 8</TD><TD>New Mexico State </TD><TD>W 44-34</TD><TD>1-1 (0-0)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>September 15</TD><TD>at Arizona </TD><TD>W 29-27</TD><TD>2-1 (0-0)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>September 22</TD><TD>Sacramento State </TD><TD>W 58-0</TD><TD>3-1 (0-0)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>September 29</TD><TD>Brigham Young </TD><TD>L 31-24</TD><TD>3-2 (0-1)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>October 13</TD><TD>at Wyoming </TD><TD>W 20-3</TD><TD>4-2 (1-1)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>October 20</TD><TD>at San Diego State </TD><TD>W 20-17</TD><TD>5-2 (2-1)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>October 25</TD><TD>Air Force </TD><TD>W 34-31</TD><TD>6-2 (3-1)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>November 3</TD><TD>at TCU </TD><TD>L 37-0</TD><TD>6-3 (3-2)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>November 10</TD><TD>Colorado State </TD><TD>W 26-23</TD><TD>7-3 (4-2)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>November 17</TD><TD>at Utah </TD><TD>L 28-10</TD><TD>7-4 (4-3)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>November 24</TD><TD>UNLV </TD><TD>W 27-6</TD><TD>8-4 (5-3)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

New Mexico started out by playing really solid ball in the month of september and their first game of october. Do not let the 10-6 loss to utep fool you. The lobos dominated that game but found a way to lose. There is also a quality road win over Arizona. But it should be noted ..... both UTEP and Arizona were playing their worst football of the year when they met new mexico. I dare say that Arizona would handle them easily now. After they beat a Wyoming team that went on to lose 6 of its final 7 , the lobos did not play well at all. They have been regressing.
A 3 point win over san diego state .... not many likely saw this game but the aztecs had this one won when their qb rushed for a first down that would have led to the victory formation .... but fumbled on the play and new mexico scored in the final seconds to pull out a victory. Now, SDSU was starting to get better but they are far from a quality football team. New mexico then defeated air force .... not sure how many of you saw that game but the lobos were thoroughly outplayed but air force turnovers handed the lobos the victory. Following these two undeserved victories, the lobos went to TCU and got bitch slapped. And then narrowly defeated a quitting , uninspired colorado state team. CSU went on to record a season total of 2 wins vs fbs competition. The lobos then travelled to utah where they were handled quite easily before ending the season with a convincing win against unlv ( go rebels ! ). Now, i happened to watch that unlv game and came away thoroughly unimpressed with the lobos. Unlv had receivers running wide open all game long but the rebels third string qb was like a deer in headlights and simply could not make a play. The lobos , despite the rebels troubles to get first downs .... still failed to capitalize offensively. This lobo team has not played well since the middle of october !!!!!!

Since their first game in november the lobos have not out firstdowned a single opponent. In fact , over their last 4 games the lobos have been outfirst downed by an average of 19.75 first downs per game by opponents to their 13.75 a game. Ouch. With the exception of unlv in the finale the lobos were also significantly outgained in each of their last four games. Including the unlv affair , the lobos were outgained in their last four games by a margin of 340.75 yards per game to 278.00 yards per game. ouch again. And keep in mind , as i stated before ..... the rebels had receivers wide open all over the field in the finale when the lobos outgained unlv. When you have to look all the way back to september to find a really quality game from a team, then you should be trying to figure out whether you are receiving enough points with them to warrant a play ..... only new mexico is laying here. The lobos also have not played since november 24. i will get to that later.

As you can see , New Mexico has been a BELOW AVERAGE team over the entire second half of the season. They regressed.

So now lets look at Nevada.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD>at No. 20 Nebraska </TD><TD>L 52-10</TD><TD>0-1 (0-0)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>September 8</TD><TD>at Northwestern </TD><TD>L 36-31</TD><TD>0-2 (0-0)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>September 15</TD><TD>Nicholls State </TD><TD>W 52-17</TD><TD>1-2 (0-0)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>September 29</TD><TD>UNLV </TD><TD>W 27-20</TD><TD>2-2 (0-0)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>October 6</TD><TD>Fresno State </TD><TD>L 49-41</TD><TD>2-3 (0-1)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>October 14</TD><TD>at Boise State </TD><TD>L 69-67</TD><TD>2-4 (0-2)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>October 20</TD><TD>at Utah State </TD><TD>W 31-28</TD><TD>3-4 (1-2)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>October 27</TD><TD>Idaho </TD><TD>W 37-21</TD><TD>4-4 (2-2)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>November 2</TD><TD>at New Mexico State </TD><TD>W 40-38</TD><TD>5-4 (3-2)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>November 16</TD><TD>No. 16 Hawaii </TD><TD>L 28-26</TD><TD>5-5 (3-3)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>November 24</TD><TD>at San Jose State </TD><TD>L 27-24</TD><TD>5-6 (3-4)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>December 1</TD><TD>Louisiana Tech </TD><TD>W 49-10</TD><TD>6-6 (4-4)</TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Not a very impressive schedule to say the least. In fact, it is safe to say that new mexico has had the tougher schedule overall. Nevada was a very young football team coming into the year and it showed early but they relly turned it around starting with the game against fresno st. The wolfpack lost that game but take note of this ..... they had over 200 more yards of offense than fresno st and doubled the bulldogs in first downs. A quality game even in defeat. They then traveled to boise st .... again they lost but put up an admirable fight on one of the toughest homefields in the nation. Boise st had two more first downs than nevada and just 12 more total yards. Again, a quality game even in defeat. To make this easy .... just look at total first downs and total yards over nevadas last 8 games.

fresno st had 15 first downs and 475 yards , nevada had 30 fd for 702
boise had 30 fd for 639 yards , nev had 28 fd for 627 yards
utah st had 12 fd for 212 yards , nev had 27 fd for 472 yards
idaho had 17 fd for 212 yards , nev had 26 fd for 362
nmsu had 29 fd for 510 yards , nev had 23 fd for 522
hawaii had 21 fd for 430 yards , nev had 19 fd for 350 yards
sjsu had 25 fd for 432 yards, nev had 22 fd for 426 yards
latech had 12 fd for 238 yards , nev had 29 fd for 641 yards

This averages out to an incredible comparison .....
20.1 fd for 392 yards per game for opponents
25.5 fd for 510 yards per game for nevada

Both teams sport decent coaches ....... but if you asked ten solid cappers on this site to pick one over the other ..... you would have to think ATLEAST 7 of those cappers would rather have Chris Ault.

How about motivation ?? How motivated can New Mexico be to play another home game ??? I spent my high school and college days down in the southwest ( utep alum ) and UNM is a basketball school. They just dont really get out and support the football program the same way. Nevada on the other ahnd started the season slowly and built their way to a bowl bid .. they were young and they bought into the program and the coach and the system. They know they are playing in a bowl and they have to do it on the other teams home field. There HAS to be a motivational edge for nevada here.

Both teams are coming off of extensive lay offs , new mexicos a week longer than nevadas. I told you i would get back to this ...... and i think it is an important factor in capping all these bowl games. Nevada is younger and hungrier right now ... they are the players that are more likely to improve. One of the reasons that Florida beat ohio state last year .... their young talent just got better over the lay off and the senior talent of ohio state had basically peaked already. The same principle applies here in my opinion.

Injuries/notes -- well the key note is that rb ferguson for unm will not play in this game. Do not believe that will have a dramatic impact on this game. I like it the same with him there or not.

My Concern -- I have to be honest .... I do not have many ..... but one concern that i do have is that nevada has played poorly on grass this year. They played three games on grass at northwestern, at nmsu and at san jose st and they played poorly in all three of those games.

Tell me folks ... am I missing something here ??????? The wrong team is favored.

the play is nevada moneyline +120
 
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The ucla/byu line has seemed right on to me from the beginning pretty much and so i will not be playing it. In addition, i eliminated cincy from my strong leans... inthe end just couldnt pull the trigger on laying that many. match up looks good for bearcats but the situation really favors southern mississippi. Do not want to count on Bower getting blown out in final game of career to cash my ticket. Still think whatever line value there is ... it is slightly with bearcats though.

Again ... think the byu/ucla game is lined perfectly. So i have two games where i can just enjoy the ctg confidence pool on and the one game with nevada beating unm.

good luck today folks
 
Bowl Record 0-1

Wow. Where the hell did that come from , new mexico ??? nevada ???

Spent some time going over the game again .... and there is just nothing to indicate that new mexico could dominate like that. But they did , and the score does not even come close to showing just how much ..... they were 50 points better than nevada today.

Sorry folks, i was wrong on that .... and quite frankly .... i cannot remember being more wrong on a game this season ( maybe temple minus points vs buffalo ).

I also lost a halftime bet on this game.

What makes it worse was that i was very confident in this game.
confident that nevada would be the more motivated team -- WRONG
confident that i had a coaching edge in ault vs long -- WRONG
confident that new mexico would not be able to contain the high powered offense of nevada -- WRONG
Confident that i would get the better qb play ...wow how bad do you have to be to get out played by porterie ??? --- WRONG

In a lot of ways this game shocked me more than than the appy state win over michigan.

Not much else to say .,.... nevada was new mexicos bitch today and the books had their own bitch in me. Hopefully, the rest of the bowl season does not go this way.
 
I know what you mean about the NM-Nevada game..I had Nevada myself..and did not see New Mexico dominating like that or holding Nevada scoreless. But I like the rest of your picks...but just lean on the other side of the Miss st pick.. gl the rest of the way
 
Howdy folks.

currently away from home on a business trip and have had little to no time to find my way online and make a post. It is kind of a shame since i had some really great thoughts on the asu/texas tilt as well as the oregon state game and tcu game. lets look abck at these games a sec,,,

asu +3 -115 --- ASU wa outplayed in this one as texas played their best first quarter of the year and possibly their best game of the year. I really felt there was a strong motivation edge for ASU but was clearly wrong .... not sure why texas plays flat in a revenge spot against kansas state , a revenge spot against TAMU and comes out ready to play against the sun devils. ASU did pretty much what i expected offensively ( save carpenter missing so many wide open receivers ) but their tackling was simply atrocious. Big part of this bet was the spot and the motivational angle .... when tht did not pan out, texas was the side... and it marked my second consecutive game of not just losing but being on the wrong side of the bet.

now ... the much more appealing converstaion about the two games that i managed to cash.

oregon state -- This was my favorite game of the bowl season (( think i had these guys at 32 of 32 in my confidence pool )). Much like the new mexico score did not indicate how badly they dominated nevada ... the oregon state score does not show what occurred int hat game. Total domination by the oregon state defense. This beaver team was one of the most undervalued of the entire season, and the public never caught up to how good they were. Imagine if this team had not lost stroughter and one of the top 7 linemen in the country in perry. This team came into the bowl game as one of the hottest in the country. In the months of october , november and december the beavers lost just one game and that was AT USC. An understandable loss and they were certainly not outclassed in that one. And if you look at their losses in september you will note they were victimized by an incredible number of turnovers. They outplayed ucla for three quarters before the wheels fell of in the fourth. They completely outplayed Arizona state in an away game that they eventually lost in flukish fashion by 12 points. They had both significant first down and yardage edges in that game. After dixons injury ... the beavers became the second best team in the pac 10. could go on and on and on about this game but it is kind of pointless after the game is over to most. hell my only concern at all in the game was friedgen. pretty easy money and unfortunate to have to sweat that game out as the score did not indicate the level of domination. What an incredible rush defense the beavers sported all year long.

tcu -4 -- Game went pretty mucha s expected though i thought tcu would move the ball slightly better than they did. Were nothelped by getting in their own way with penalties at bad moments on offense all night. Houston likes to run and you cant run on tcu. horned frogs were my bowl play of the year last year against northern illy for the same reason.. all northern illy could do was run and you cant run on tcu. Think this was the right side of the game but it certainly wasn't the clear cut dominance one would hope for when laying 4. I'll take it.

brings me to 2-2 in the bowl season ... down 0.15 units.

need mississippi state moneyline to hit in the next one.

quick look at that one

Schedule/conference -- mississippi state played the tougher schedule in the tougher conference. six teams on mississippi states schedule were ranked at the time they played them. This is not close and not debatable.

coaching -- Croom was my coach of the year at seasons end and i give him the slight edge in this one.

motivation -- Team is very motivated and croom has them improving every week. Been building for this bowl game for some time and it is hard for me to imagine that they dont come out blazing and focused. big edge here for bulldogs.

location -- another advantage for miss st. .... fans will be heavily in favor of bull dogs here.

Conference USA has been exposed , with their one good bowl performance being east carolina ( who may have helped to expose the WAC ... along with the new mexico thrashing of nevada ). A bowl eligible conference USA team may be able to sneak up on an sEC powerhouse and catch them sleeping but ..... miss st is the underdog .... and hungry for a bowl win. Should ahve a chip on their shoulder..... Can you imagine the joy that offense must have watching the tape of ucf defense after playing against defenses the likes of lsu , bama , south carolina , tennessee , auburn , west virginia and kentucky ???? they must be salivating !! Should be able to power ucf and the passing game will be open for them. I think the wrong team is favored in this game (( i think lvsc opened miss st the fave , correct me if i am wrong ... i agree with them and not the line move)).

good luck folks and hope to find more time to post on this trip.
 
Just to give you my angle here on ucf vs non conference bcs conference opponents ... here are the first down and yardage comparisons in their 3 games that qualify vs ncstate , texas and usf

Texas 35 ucf 32
texas had 25 first downs for 488 yds , ucf had 17 first downs for 326 yds

ucf 25 ncstate 23
ncstate had 16 fd for 357 yds , ucf had 13 fd for 299 yds

ucf 12 usf 64
usf had 23 fd for 543 yds , ucf had 12 fd for 145 yds
 
Sorry Vegas, but people are looking over the fact that many of Miss St's wins this year were gift wrapped for them through bad QB play. When UCF doesn't turn the ball over, which they don't, State will have to outplay them, which they can't. I'm on UCF -2.5 here, the line is telling me all I need to know.
 
OK. interestingly i ahve been on the right side of 3 games and they all won and was on the wrong side of two games and they both lost. So Mr. moose has not played a part in any of my games so far this bowl season. Miraculous when you consider his appearances running over utah , cincy, purdue , etc etc .

Got a nice moneyline win there with Miss State. That game could have gone either way as both defenses dominated the opposing offenses. Nice to have the plus 135 in a game like that, though there were certainly moments that i wish i had taken the plus 3 instead. Especially when I realized that ucf would never score a td. Have to go back and look but i am not sure that ucf penetrated the 15 yard line. Clearly miss st was the right side of this game from a pointspread perspective ... ucf missed two field goals ... but lets be honest about two things 1. hard to ask a college kid to go 3 for 3 from beyond 30 yards in a game. 2. hard to ever consider a favorite the right side when they dont even sniff a "goal to go" situation. I mean .. if they make all three field goals they score 9 points ... never catch me laying points with a team that cannot score a td vs the opponent and if the two teams played again next week ... not sure ucf would score a td there either.

Now, with all that said .. I do think that ucf had an ever slightly more competent offense today. Ramble sort of called his shot as the turnovers were the difference in this one.

Thought ucf played its very best defensive game of the year. again... i will take this victory in a game that could ahve gone either way. and in a game that could go either way ... i like +135 :)

takes me to 3-2 in the bowl season , ahead 1.20 units.

only one bowl game tomorrow and i do not have a strong opinion on it at all. very inconsistent teams in my opinion and two really good coaches.

speaking of opinions , would have won both my leans on michigan state and central michigan and would have lost my lean on cincinnatti. Ironically , cincy was probably the best of the three bets and the most deserving of the three to win. rambling a bit , but wish you all the best of luck in the bama/buffs game tomorrow ... gonna be fun to watch.
 
thanks blue chips.

Managed to cash another winner today with Auburn and my fourth consecutive bowl win eliminates some of my fears after being on the wrong sides of nevada and ASU in my first two plays. Since those games i have gone 4-0 and been on the right side of each. So in a moose filled bowl season , i have managed to neither benefit or suffer from the appearance of the big beast.

Auburn gave up one td on the broken tackles by spiller ( what a great individual effort by him on that play ) and the other was set up by the turnover deep in auburn territory followed by a nice fade pattern and goal line conversion. Outside of those two plays ... clemson just couldnt move the ball. Auburn was much mroe effective at the line of scrimmage and moving the chains. Gave up 17 in regulation ....... as mentioned earlier in the thread .... love taking the points in games where the favorite struggles a TON to score points. CHA CHING !

Have Georgia -7 tomorrow. quick thoughts ....

-I think both of these teams will be motivated to play in this game.
-I give a slight coaching edge to Richt. ( both good coaches )
-I cannot fathom a scenario where Georgia is unable to pound the ball down Hawaii's throat.
-Troy is the closest thing to hawaii's offense that Georgia saw this year and troy had some success moving the ball on them.
-Georgia will be one of the few ( if any ) teams that can get the necessary pressure on brennan with just their DL
-have to mention the schedule. one difficult ... one hawaii
-hawaii just does not play as well on the mainland
-Georgia is currently my number two power rated team in the nation (oklahoma #1 )
-speed advantage for georgia
-size advantage for georgia
-talent advantage for Georgia
-georgia rush attack > hawaii rush defense
-hawaii pass attack > georgia pass defense
-georgia pass attack > hawaii pass defense
-hawaii rush attack < georgia rush defense

I think georgia wins this one convincingly.
 
Good stuff bro and nice little run you have been on. Still staring down this sugar bowl. Getting some good stuff to read though from you guys.
 
Great run vegas......

I cant argue with anything you say about Georgia vs Hawaii.....and like I mentioned fading massive line movements on Hawaii games has been bank.....in this case Georgia is the play......

I hope Hawaii wins, but cash talks on these boards, and I wont bet them......

ah, one thing though, meaningless but people get this wrong......Hawaii is BIGGER than Georgia....Georgia's D line and Linebackers are actually small ......pure speed is Richt's philosophy.....

Hawaii has never seen this kind of speed from a d-line before and i think it will give Hawaii fits all game long......:seeya::seeya:
 
If GA can pressure with just their front 4, that should really cut down on Hawaii's screen, swing, and draw game. This will then result in Colt having to throw regular passes nearly every play. This will equal turnovers for the Dawgs.
 
Nice job so far, Kyle.

You are correct in that I called the game exacly right in saying that if UCF turned the ball over, State would win. They did, and they did. I'm not in agreement with you that State was the right side, however. State's only two scores came off of turnovers. UCF missed two field goals. I'm not sure how that translates to State being the correct side. However, everyone on the board had State and it was a good win - but after watching that game there is no way on earth I can say that State was the right side. I only had a small play on it so I'm not bitter, I'm glad the board got the win. :shake:

I'll be with you on Georgia tomorrow. I'm finishing up a teaser of Kentucky -1/Georgia -1.5 which I think is pretty solid. If Georgia loses straight up I think the world may collapse in upon itself. Then again, it's been that kind of year.

I don't want to get into an argument about who was on the "right side", so let's just say it was a good win for the board and leave it behind. At least, that's what I'll have to tell myself. :)

BOL.
 
BAR -- thanks brutha

Hg -- you guys beat my number two power rated team , then you can legitimately make claims at being number one in my mind. Might have overstated size edge.

sammy -- enjoyed our private messages concerning this game

cubsker -- yup .. hawaii turns the ball over in general. If you look at them oiver the last few years they dont mind turning it over. To their credit they have overcome that and beaten teams, sometimes handily , despite that. Do not think they can afford to do that in this spot. And yes ... it is more likely given likelihood of pass rush from fewer rushers.

Ram --i do think ucf played the slightly better game if you take away the turnovers. but just think the value was with the dog in a game with so few offensive opportunites. lets cash georgia
 
First I want to congratulate Hawaii on a great season. I hope the performance in the sugar bowl doesn't diminish what this team accomplished. The money they received for making it to the bcs should go a long way toward making that program that much better.

While I am a fan of the snaller conferences , i did have a bet on georgia tonight so i was indeed happy to see them cover the spread. I was even more happy that the game went basically the way i said it would. Felt that this game was one of my better capped games of the year.

Georgia has an interesting blueprint for this game .... they were actually ... basically rushing two guys. The two ends , who repeatedly got past their ol opponents were rushing the passer hard but the interior of the dl was just using leverage most of the game. This did two differnt things for the georgia defense. 1. it prevented hawaii from having a great deal of success with delayed draws and the shovel passes that act as hawaii's running game. 2. It also made it much more difficult for Brennan to complete passes on the short crossing patterns in the middle of the field ... forcing him to look sideline more often than normal. Not every team will have the athletes at DE to make this work but it may be a blue print that teams in the WAC may want to look at for defending this offense next year. I know my best friend and i noticed this leverage tactic by the georgia defensive tackles and was wondering if others picked up on this as well

on the offensive side of the ball , it went as advertised ... they pounded the ball down hawaiis throat.

marked my fifth straight bowl win after the 0-2 start .. bringing me to a pretty nice 5-2 record for the bowl season.

i added a teaser today
oklahoma -1/rutgers -4 300 to win 300

In post #5 of this thread i outline why i think rutgers should handle ball st in this game. I despise laying double digits , especially in bowls but feel there is definitely more value to rutgers in this line... tease makes me feel safer from the backdoor.

As for the oklahoma play... some quick thoughts....

-oklahoma is my number one power rated team in the nation
-in my opinion wv played against 4 really decent rush defenses this year vs cincy , usf , miss st , and pitt. In those games , wv went just 2-2 and dominated only one of the four ( miss st )
-focus should be very different here. all qoutes from the kids at wvu indicate that they loved rodriguez and that they were DISAPPOINTED that he did not stay to coach them in the bowl game. meanwhile , oklahoma is really seeking redemption for the often talked about boise debacle. one team focused on the task at hand , the other on off the field issues.
-bad matchup for the wv offense as the speed of ou defense will make it difficult for this offense to function on full power.
-while pat white has some decent pass stats .... i am not a believer in his ability to throw. i think it is from watching him play a lot. :)
-oklahoma will have success pounding the ball at wvu in the running game
-wv cannot match up against wr kelly in the passing game
-i have looked over my 7 previous bowl bets ... in my five wins ( miss st , tcu , oreg st , georgia , auburn ) themore physically dominant team won. ...... in my two losses ( nevada and ASU ), the more physically dominant team won the game as well ( unm and texas ). no doubt that oklahoma is the more physically dominant team
-white and slaton ARE NOT HEART PLAYERS. they have a history of sitting out possessions with minor dings in big games ... when they are getting hit hard .,.. and they have shown the ability to fumble in the big games as well.
-only chance for wv that i see is getting reynaud (sp) as many touches as they can in the passing game ... and i just cant see ou getting beat consistently by pat white thru the air
-teased it down as wv has a lot of talent on the field and can put up points. just asking ou to win here

gl folks
 
Outside of predicting that slaton would injure himself somehow , i pretty much miscapped this ou/wvu game completely. Motivation angle hurt me again and West Virginia played a great game. If this was easy , I would be a lot richer.
congrats to all the mountaineer backers in this game.

It does meake me feel a bit better about the virginia tech play however.

only a few games left folks , lets enjoy them.
 
Some quick thoughts on why I bet Virginia Tech tonight.

-I know exactly what I am getting with Virginia Tech. I still have to feel as though Kansas is somewhat of an unknown.
-I love what Virginia Tech has shown in it's last bunch of games away from home against pretty quality competition.
AT CLEMSON ------ VT 41 clem 23
AT DUKE ---------- VT 43 duke 14
AT GEORGIA TECH --VT 27 ga tech 3
AT VIRGINIA --------VT 33 Virginia 21
AWAY ACC CHAMPIONSHIP VT 30 boston college 16

-they won their last 5 away games by double digits
-4 of those opponents were bowl teams
-Va Tech has improved their rushing game as ol and ore have gotten slightly healthier and in better shape
-prior to the loss in the big12 championship game kansas played four decent teams on the road and won. But they trailed kstate in the 4th qtr , were outgained and out first downed at colorado, and were not overly impressive in a 15 point victory over okie state. okies state lost their best offensive weapon in that game , turned the ball over 4 times to kansas 0 and still managed to gain 471 yards of offense on the jayhawks. The win at texas AM is likely their best showing away from home ... they scored just 19 but held tamu to 11.
-i like the matchup of vatech pass rush vs kansas ol
-i like VT special teams as far as blocking kicks. i also like royal on returns but that is mitigated by kansas having a really nice return game of their own
-i think the lesser opponents kansas has faced has allowed their defense extended rests during long kansas drives. hard to imagine consistent first down production against va tech defense. should mean more plays defended for kansas defense than normal. more likely to tire.
-vatech has been here before. kansas waited a long time to get into a big game ...... and then when they did, missouri spanked them ...by a lot more than that final score indicated.
-vatech imploded second half of bowl game last year vs georgia. Glennon turned the ball over like he was handing out lollipops in a childrens dentist office. may be looking for some redemption
-mangino is a great coach. so is beamer. no edge either way here in my opinion
-vatech will have WAY MORE defensive speed than kansas has seen all year long.
-Royal is the most explosive player on the field and he is a hokie
-have yet to see how kansas reacts to adversity.
-i absolutely cannot trust kansas here. Everyone went nuts about hawaiis schedule but you have to look at jayhawk schedule and wonder a bit if they are for real as well.
-neither team has played a game this year that was decided by 3 points or fewer, so in laying the 3 i feel a little bit confident that all i really need to do is pick the outright winner of the game.
-win one for the student body ??? lets not forget tragedy that happened with moron who shot up the unarmed students this summer. Hate to wager a guess on motivation after oklahoma laid an egg but think VT should be up for this one.

those are a few quick blurbs as to why i like VT a bit tonight.
note that kansas has taken a lot of my money already this year,..... they may well do it again.

gl folks
 
Well, the virginia tech loss tonight marks the end of my cfb betting season. Hats off to Kansas for pulling off the upset with lesser athletes.

Mangino coached Beamer under the table in this game. It looked to me as if all Vatech had to do was run the ball every play and they win easily. Beamer , despite consistent success with the run seemed determined to throw the ball. The result was a lot of turnovers and kansas points. This bowl loss is completely on Beamer, marking the second consecutive bowl loss by the hokies that one can attribute to coaching. He , really , can no longer be considered a great coach in my mind. Bud Foster is though. Vatech did a great job defensively in this game while constantly being put in unfavorable positions.

Also want to say that i was actually inspired by this reesing kid tonight. He makes the absolute most out of his abilities. This kid is also tough as nails.... the little guy took some HUGE hits but just kept getting up.

finished the bowl year 5-3 which is acceptable , especially considering the 0-2 start.

my final cfb numbers including the bowls are 50-43-2 for a winning percentage of 53.76 . Have not gone through all my records to see if this is my worst year ... but if it is ... it is not my worst by much.

Stuck to my guns and played one unit a game. never chased. and used the fundamentals of cfb handicapping that have made me money every year i have bet it now. ( there is a reason you do not see me betting nhl ).

3 games remain and i will enjoy watching all of them but will not be betting. like rutgers but will not lay that many in a bowl game and cant tease them because i dont like anything else enough to couple it with anymore.

Thank you everyone for making my "time to post" threads that much better than they would have been without your input. I should be posting a lot in this forum again come next july in preparation for next season. And I also expect to contribute more this year to the mlb forum.

cfb 2007 50-43-2 , 53.7634%
 
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