RetroVK
This claim is disputed
favorites 1-1 -0.13 units
dogs 6-3 + 4.19 units
overs 0-0
unders 0-2 -2.25 units
overall +1.81 units
Going to probably have a few people throwing some chairs at me for my friday plays but it is what it is.
Two unit recommendations
One unit recommendations
Washington Nationals +190 Martis vs Lowe
Yankees/royals over 9.5 -110
Nationals -- Basically feel we have a line reflecting too much "what have you done for me lately". Nats coming off a bad sweep to the marlins and braves coming out of a nice series vs the phillies. Despite what we saw in philadelphia i still dont believe this braves lineup really has all that much HR power. I think the lineup is solid but not what we saw in the opening series. In addition , I think Lowe is a solid starter but I also don't believe this guy is a -230 pitcher. period. Lowe is coming off a dominating performance against the defending champs where his stuff was just plain nasty with lots of late movement. This is why this line is so huge. Overcompensation for current form of nats starting pitching and lowe. Braves have not seen alot of martis and what they have seen of him they were ineffectual 4 hits ( 1 extra bases ) in 17 AB. Martis seemed more comfortable on the road last year in his limited action , so i dont have fear in that regard especially considering he has felt the pressure of mlb , olympics and WBC action. I think you could argue that martis was every bit as good as lowe in the spring as well. Several of the key guys on the nationals see lowe well and despite the sweep in florida , the nats aren't hitting that poorly at all. Now he was with the dodgers at the time facing the braves lineup and not the nats but lowe had one game in atlanta last year and went 4.1 innings yeilding 8 hits and 5 runs. He did pitch well vs the nats last year. Basically see this as a game where there is just too much value to pass on. Lowe might go out and dominate this game as he did the phillies and if so i just tip my hat and go my way. Like i always remind people , winning baseball capping is not about picking winners , it's about picking prices. this bet in my estimation is positive EV even though the nats lose here more often than they win. Hard to trust Martis to go long innings and that would be my biggest concern other than lowe returning with the perfect stuff he had last outing. lean under as well.
yanks/royals over -- is pretty self explanatory. Hoping past performance is indicative of future results. Pettitte looks like a good candidate for the royals bats to wake up and the yankees simply own ponson up and down their lineup. Ponson basically makes the royals roster based on his wbc performance but has looked like his normal fat self in the spring. lefties pound the crap out of this guy as well which doesnt bode well here. Royals should be very pesky as the stadium should be packed after 250 million dollars of renovations for the home opener and the yankees are in town. should be crazy. So expect a solid effort from the royals as well. Given ponson splits vs the yanks , i couldnt pull the trigger on the royals but situationally i like it.... went with the over here as i figure a royals win likely means its because they outscored ponsons opponent. Those who have read my threads in the past know that my better angles tend to find me value in under situations but i couldnt pass on this over.
leans
looking hard at the reds and the dbacks as well for possible full unit plays. Reds may fall just outside my comfort zone on favorite price but i think there is value there. have to consider. Dbacks looks like a good spot more than anything else.
dogs 6-3 + 4.19 units
overs 0-0
unders 0-2 -2.25 units
overall +1.81 units
Going to probably have a few people throwing some chairs at me for my friday plays but it is what it is.
Two unit recommendations
One unit recommendations
Washington Nationals +190 Martis vs Lowe
Yankees/royals over 9.5 -110
Nationals -- Basically feel we have a line reflecting too much "what have you done for me lately". Nats coming off a bad sweep to the marlins and braves coming out of a nice series vs the phillies. Despite what we saw in philadelphia i still dont believe this braves lineup really has all that much HR power. I think the lineup is solid but not what we saw in the opening series. In addition , I think Lowe is a solid starter but I also don't believe this guy is a -230 pitcher. period. Lowe is coming off a dominating performance against the defending champs where his stuff was just plain nasty with lots of late movement. This is why this line is so huge. Overcompensation for current form of nats starting pitching and lowe. Braves have not seen alot of martis and what they have seen of him they were ineffectual 4 hits ( 1 extra bases ) in 17 AB. Martis seemed more comfortable on the road last year in his limited action , so i dont have fear in that regard especially considering he has felt the pressure of mlb , olympics and WBC action. I think you could argue that martis was every bit as good as lowe in the spring as well. Several of the key guys on the nationals see lowe well and despite the sweep in florida , the nats aren't hitting that poorly at all. Now he was with the dodgers at the time facing the braves lineup and not the nats but lowe had one game in atlanta last year and went 4.1 innings yeilding 8 hits and 5 runs. He did pitch well vs the nats last year. Basically see this as a game where there is just too much value to pass on. Lowe might go out and dominate this game as he did the phillies and if so i just tip my hat and go my way. Like i always remind people , winning baseball capping is not about picking winners , it's about picking prices. this bet in my estimation is positive EV even though the nats lose here more often than they win. Hard to trust Martis to go long innings and that would be my biggest concern other than lowe returning with the perfect stuff he had last outing. lean under as well.
yanks/royals over -- is pretty self explanatory. Hoping past performance is indicative of future results. Pettitte looks like a good candidate for the royals bats to wake up and the yankees simply own ponson up and down their lineup. Ponson basically makes the royals roster based on his wbc performance but has looked like his normal fat self in the spring. lefties pound the crap out of this guy as well which doesnt bode well here. Royals should be very pesky as the stadium should be packed after 250 million dollars of renovations for the home opener and the yankees are in town. should be crazy. So expect a solid effort from the royals as well. Given ponson splits vs the yanks , i couldnt pull the trigger on the royals but situationally i like it.... went with the over here as i figure a royals win likely means its because they outscored ponsons opponent. Those who have read my threads in the past know that my better angles tend to find me value in under situations but i couldnt pass on this over.
leans
looking hard at the reds and the dbacks as well for possible full unit plays. Reds may fall just outside my comfort zone on favorite price but i think there is value there. have to consider. Dbacks looks like a good spot more than anything else.
