time to post april 7 baseball

[RetroVK]

favorites 0-0
dogs 2-0 +2.49 units
overs 0-0
unders 0-2 -2.25 units

overall +0.24 units

Two unit recommendations

One unit recommendations

Washington nationals +141 olsen v johnson
detroit tigers +100 jackson v purcey
oakland athletics + 111 cahill v moseley
seattle mariners + 102 bedard v blackburn

LEANS

over 8.5 phillies/braves ( playing for a tiny amount , wont be counted in record )

kansas city + 117 ... need 125 or better to play this .. shame i had the number i needed prior to postponement and now can't play it unless it moves back.

Astros -- wandy at home , but seems priced in.



quick blurbs tonight on some of my reasoning

nats -- this play is not without concerns and i will be up front about them. marlins are seeing the ball really well right now , Johnson is a solid pitcher , marlins own the nats ( want to say 15 of last 18 they have won vs nats but could be wrong ) and since olsen used to be a marlin they probably have him as well scouted as you could want. The bullpen was also used heavily by the nats today in defeat. Thing is that i like olsen to want this game a lot and i like how he matches up with the marlins lineup. This is one of those games where i just feel the price is off. Yes the marlins win this game more times than they lose it ... but the nats win it enough times to make that price a value for me and a long term profitable situation.

tigers -- tigers didnt exactly pound purcey the first time they saw him but they should have more success here and i have a hard time seeing him get through a tigers lineup that will throw a different quality right handed bat at him over and over again. tigers have a lot of power and purcey is a dead flyball pitcher. good matchup for tigs imo and look for a bounceback from todays embarrassment.

athletics -- cahill is a minor league stud that the angels have never seen before obviously. moseley just gets torn to shreds by players up and down this oakland lineup and he will have to turn too many of those head-to-heads the other direction to have a lot of success. Somewhat of an important game psychologically for the A's club i think as they are supposed to be the upstarts in the west and if they cant take games from the angels when they are depleted at SP then they are in for trouble in 09. would consider team total here as well.

mariners -- i said in the offseason that this team might be an early season cash cow and i meant it. If i can't take bedard at plus money vs blackburn then i might as well forget about betting the mariners. Bedard may not go long innings so the fact that hernandez saved the bullpen today helps matters. As long as bedard can find a way to get morneau out he should cruise here. The mauer loss just can't be emphasized enough imo and as my buddy was telling me tonight it effects them both offensively and defensively because of his catching. Blackburn is capable of a gem but also capable of gascanning. I think this wins tomorrow but more importantly , i am extremely confident that this is a positive EV betting situation. came close to a two unit play but not quite.


In order to prevent myself from burning out with writeups i will only do them on my two unit recommendations so sorry for not breaking this down in more detail.

good luck to everyone and may you get the strikeout or homerun when you need it

 

[nawlins51]

on all 4.GL to us

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[hile75]

Gl today bud.

 

[Peldas]

Good Luck! :cheers:

 

[gsro]

tigers -- tigers didnt exactly pound purcey the first time they saw him but they should have more success here and i have a hard time seeing him get through a tigers lineup that will throw a different quality right handed bat at him over and over again. tigers have a lot of power and purcey is a dead flyball pitcher. good matchup for tigs imo and look for a bounceback from todays embarrassment.

last nigt was indeed an embarassment, and have to agree with your assessment on him being a fly ball pitcher, which doesn't bode well for fly ball pitchers in Toronto...i've said it before, pitching through 2-5 for the jays will be won based on their offense..defensively, they are a very sound bunch..don't think we see many 4-1 games in favour of the Jays this year...they could prove to become over machines

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL, no opinions really on any of them but dont know if I agree with the Nats but purely from a statistical standpoint.

 

[CapTwo]

:cheers:

lets cash detroit.

good to see you in a bad price kept you off KC and farnsfuckjob

gl VK

 

[RetroVK]

BOL, no opinions really on any of them but dont know if I agree with the Nats but purely from a statistical standpoint.

like i said , renew .. there are some concerns with that play and i would expect marlins to win. Just think that the price was inflated. There has been intersting line movement on that game .. got bet down to low 130's and now back up.

 

[RetroVK]

:cheers:

lets cash detroit.

good to see you in a bad price kept you off KC and farnsfuckjob

gl VK

The kind of game that makes me feel really good as a handicapper for profit in all honesty. Royals appeared to be the side for a vast majority of the game but failed to capitalize and then the white sox steal the game off farnsworth. Feel like i had the game figured correctly but feel happy that discipline paid off. Could no longer get my number and so i laid off. Best of both worlds.

 

[RetroVK]

Washington nationals +141 olsen v johnson loser -1.00 units
detroit tigers +100 jackson v purcey loser -1.00 units
oakland athletics + 111 cahill v moseley winner + 1.11 units
seattle mariners + 102 bedard v blackburn loser -1.00 units


A pretty rough day for me today , finishing 1.89 units in the hole. Even worse is a toothache that developed over the course of the day.

favorites 0-0
dogs 3-3 + 0.60 units
overs 0-0
unders 0-2 -2.25 units

overall -1.65 units

 

[Administrator]

Whats worse, the toothache or the Tigers Bullpen?


Oh that's right, the managing of Leyland surpasses both combined.


Off my horse now.

Get em back tomorrow.

 

[RetroVK]

Whats worse, the toothache or the Tigers Bullpen?


Oh that's right, the managing of Leyland surpasses both combined.


Off my horse now.

Get em back tomorrow.

As bad as the detroit loss hurt , i think the mariners blowing a two run lead in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and no one on hurt even more.

toothache hurts more than both of them.

could easily have been a very nice day but a loss is a loss.

 

[RetroVK]

Quick update on my take on the games i invested in today.

nationals -- seemed like every concern came to fruition as the marlins jumped all over the nats and olsen and had the game in hand VERY early. This was one of those perceived small edges that may not have been at all. When i look at the line movement on the total and the late money on the marlins combined it makes me believe that most of the sharp money was on the marlins and not the nationals in that game. Very possibly a bad bet.

Tigers -- blew some chances and then extended an inning with an inge error and lyon gave up the 3 run homer to Hill who hasn't shown power in a long long time. inge tried to make up for error with a game tying homer but for some reason the tiger manager stuck with lyon despite him throwing an alarming number of pitches when he didnt have his good stuff to begin with. tough loss and the nature of baseball at times. Will win some this way down the road too.

A's -- Happy to cash and the angle of the A's bats vs Moseley was solid. Cahill was actually a lot more nervous than expected and had a rough first inning but managed to evade the big inning that likely would have allowed the angels to win this game. 16 hits for A's so i feel good about that and zeigler finally got a game finished for me where my team was leading late.

Mariners --basically went exactly as hoped except with two outs and no one on base in the bottom of the ninth , reluctant closer morrow gave up walk walk walk infield single and then bautista came in and gave up another single for two rbi and a tough loss for me. Bedard had good stuff but did tire early as expected. Mariners rightly treating him with kid gloves to start the year. M's hit Blackburn ok. Basically the twins converted on almost all of their opportunities. Very tough game to lose money on.

 

[B.A.R.]

but for some reason the tiger manager stuck with lyon despite him throwing an alarming number of pitches when he didnt have his good stuff to begin with.

As I said before, this is a real concern. I spent all of last summer just fuming at some of the idiotic moves Leyland would make. I don't get it whatsoever. This was just plain stupid. His interview after the game he really didn;t get into it much either which is disturbing.

Sorry, just pisses me off as a fan. But, this team needs to capped for average to below average managing imo. I was hoping it was a fad and not a trend but this has been going on for awhile now.

 

[CapTwo]

:shake:

Get em back tomorrow, VK. Two tough ones.

I felt your pain too... had det and KC.

i would agree with you though, sea was the worst today. tough one, hope the next couple come back in your favor.

 

[misschung]

As I said before, this is a real concern. I spent all of last summer just fuming at some of the idiotic moves Leyland would make. I don't get it whatsoever. This was just plain stupid. His interview after the game he really didn;t get into it much either which is disturbing.

Sorry, just pisses me off as a fan. But, this team needs to capped for average to below average managing imo. I was hoping it was a fad and not a trend but this has been going on for awhile now.

yeh that was bad today... why not give perry a shot or throw rodney out