RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Welcome to another baseball season for all of us. We have a lot of hard working guys and a lot of solid handicappers in here. Together we should make some decent coin this year. For my part , in an effort to increase overall profit , I am attempting to push some of my smaller edges this year. This likely means more fluctuation , more games played and a lower overall winning percentage but it should also mean more money in my pocket. I will be betting two units on all games that would have qualified as a play last year and one unit on all games where I am pushing the smaller edge this year. So for those of you dumb enough to tail my picks , the two unit plays are ones that will have qualified over the last bunch of years. Spring thru fall are my times of the year for handicapping for profit ( basketball and hockey are not for my wallet ) and I hope that continues this year.
With the CTG brown-nosing out of the way lets look at my first recommended plays of 2009.
Two unit recommendations
Washington nationals at Florida Marlins under 8 -110/first 5inn under 4.5 -115 ( 1 unit each )
One unit recommendations
Seattle Mariners +135 hernandez vs liriano
Texas rangers +114 lee vs millwood
Kansas City Royals +125 meche vs buehrle
Nats/fish under 8 -110 -- There is almost too much to like here in a lot of ways and this is by far my favorite play of the first big card of baseball. John Lannan has proven to be a warrior on the mound and is rightfully the opening day ace of the nats staff. He is coming off his worst outing of the spring where he admits he was unable to keep his pitches down and in the zone , falling behind hitters. Previous to that outing he had given up just 3 earned runs in 18 innings of spring ball. I know it is something I preach on almost a daily basis when it comes to baseball but not having seen a pitcher is a huge detriment to hitters and that is actually the case here with the marlins. They have a combined four AB against lannan ( 0 hits ) and when up against a stud of his caliber , early in the season for the hitter … that plays well for the under. Lannan rarely strings bad outings together and is one of the most consistent pitchers in the league at this point. He keeps his pitches down and the ball inside the park. This is important with the big wall in left. Lannan also was an excellent April pitcher last year. Marlins hit around ..233 vs left handers last year and as mentioned this is a solid lefty they havent seen before. In addition , Lannan is both a better pitcher away from home and during the day. His daytime Era is half a run lower than at night and he is an incredible 1.68 runs better away from home. He is a warrior. The Marlins trot ricky nolasco out there. Nolasco is coming off of 7 innings of no hit baseball against the tigers where he struck out 8. In march he pitched 15 innings , yielding just 5 hits and 1 earned run. As a team the nationals bat just .186 against this dude and have just one ding dong in 70 AB while striking out 17 times. Given current form of nolasco , early season advantage to the pitcher , and being on the road , I don’t see that history making a u-turn here. Last year vs. Washington he pitched 13 innings , gave up just 7 hits and three earned runs. I can see Nolasco having a special year. I expect two pretty dominating performances from these guys in this game. One thing we should always remember about totals betting is that ( as a general rule ) both teams need to score in order for a game to go over the total. I have a hard time expecting either guy to get rocked. There is always the bullpen concerns and for that reason I split the two unit play into first 5 innings and full game.
I am still capping out this card and any remaining plays will be posted later in this window unless it is added after first pitch has been thrown monday. pet peave of mine when posted plays posts are edited after first pitch , tip off , kickoff , faceoff etc etc ....
good luck everyone
With the CTG brown-nosing out of the way lets look at my first recommended plays of 2009.
Two unit recommendations
Washington nationals at Florida Marlins under 8 -110/first 5inn under 4.5 -115 ( 1 unit each )
One unit recommendations
Seattle Mariners +135 hernandez vs liriano
Texas rangers +114 lee vs millwood
Kansas City Royals +125 meche vs buehrle
Nats/fish under 8 -110 -- There is almost too much to like here in a lot of ways and this is by far my favorite play of the first big card of baseball. John Lannan has proven to be a warrior on the mound and is rightfully the opening day ace of the nats staff. He is coming off his worst outing of the spring where he admits he was unable to keep his pitches down and in the zone , falling behind hitters. Previous to that outing he had given up just 3 earned runs in 18 innings of spring ball. I know it is something I preach on almost a daily basis when it comes to baseball but not having seen a pitcher is a huge detriment to hitters and that is actually the case here with the marlins. They have a combined four AB against lannan ( 0 hits ) and when up against a stud of his caliber , early in the season for the hitter … that plays well for the under. Lannan rarely strings bad outings together and is one of the most consistent pitchers in the league at this point. He keeps his pitches down and the ball inside the park. This is important with the big wall in left. Lannan also was an excellent April pitcher last year. Marlins hit around ..233 vs left handers last year and as mentioned this is a solid lefty they havent seen before. In addition , Lannan is both a better pitcher away from home and during the day. His daytime Era is half a run lower than at night and he is an incredible 1.68 runs better away from home. He is a warrior. The Marlins trot ricky nolasco out there. Nolasco is coming off of 7 innings of no hit baseball against the tigers where he struck out 8. In march he pitched 15 innings , yielding just 5 hits and 1 earned run. As a team the nationals bat just .186 against this dude and have just one ding dong in 70 AB while striking out 17 times. Given current form of nolasco , early season advantage to the pitcher , and being on the road , I don’t see that history making a u-turn here. Last year vs. Washington he pitched 13 innings , gave up just 7 hits and three earned runs. I can see Nolasco having a special year. I expect two pretty dominating performances from these guys in this game. One thing we should always remember about totals betting is that ( as a general rule ) both teams need to score in order for a game to go over the total. I have a hard time expecting either guy to get rocked. There is always the bullpen concerns and for that reason I split the two unit play into first 5 innings and full game.
I am still capping out this card and any remaining plays will be posted later in this window unless it is added after first pitch has been thrown monday. pet peave of mine when posted plays posts are edited after first pitch , tip off , kickoff , faceoff etc etc ....
good luck everyone
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