RetroVK
This claim is disputed
favorites 16-7 +10.23 units
dogs 14-22 - 10.93 units
overs 2-1 +0.90 units
unders 17-17 - 0.35 units
totals pushes : 1
overall -0.15 units
so close to the handicappers mendoza line.
two unit recommendations
one unit recommendations
Toronot/k.c. under 8 -120
tor/kc under 8 -120 --- kind of a lot of juice to be laying here on an 8 but i think 8 might not be available manana. I want to back Greinke as everytime i bet on him pitching well , he comes thru for me. The thing is that he is no secret now and has gotten a little pricey. So in order to back him i prefer to look at the total and see if i think the royals will struggle. I think most folks around here know that the royals struggle mightily against left handed pitching as it is but to make matters worse , they are facing a guy who is getting righties out consistently ... without looking it up , i think i read under .100 so far this year. Tallet could pose some problems for this royals lineup. His limited numbers against the royals and at kaufman are nothing to be proud of though. Hoping winters slightly expands his strikezone with the zero earned run streak of greinke ... especially in front of what might be a large crowd to see zach pitch. Any widening of the strikezone to benefit the streak will likely carry over to the bottom half of each inning as well to keep it all consistent. Greinke history vs toronto is average but i am putting more weight on his current form. In my gut , i think the bjays have a solid chance of winning this game by a 2-1 or 3-2 type of score in the late innings but there is no way i am betting against my favorite pitcher here. Concern would be Tallet not going long innings but again i think the situation helps in that capacity. Would also not be surprised to see kc be more undisciplined at the plate with Greinke on the hill 1. it's just natural when you dont think you need to score as much and 2. to keep zach in rhythm throughout the game. Stadium lines up , pitchers form lines up , situationals line up ... worth the shot in my opinion ... and i have pretty much decided i am riding the greinke train until it bumps me off
strong leans -- might play a few of these super tiny
pitt +200 -- Snell at this price ?? but why is line moving the other direction ?? what am i missing here ?? great home stats for brewers pitcher but snell has better batter v pitcher stats imo.... certainly no way over a 162 games that brewers cash in 2 of 3 with this pitching matchup. Feel like there is something i have missed here and that is why i am scared.
cardinals +100
marlins +155 -- my instinct tells me the mets win this late with the better bullpen but johnson stats to start year and in particular his career stats vs the mets roster makes me consider the dog. This is the type of game that likely comes down to one key AB or defensive error. data vs instinct again .. so prolly a tiny marlin bet here but definitely wont qualify for a full unit. check the two pitchers splits vs opponents .... amazing ...... under worth a look as well.
nats +165 --- value.
m's/whitesox under --- morning start after a double header ... after looking more in depth there are more concerns than one would think. Who is playing ?? who is resting ?? will wait and see starting lineups before deciding and not a fan of the ump for unders. likely a pass.
tbay -130 --- kazmir regaining form , blackburn suffering without mauer presence behind hte plate. blackburn history at home and twins as a home dog history probably keep me off of this one. Under umpire dreckman really plays well for kazmir here as he can struggle with control at times. unhittable for lefties. i want to do it but it isn't my style of bet.
That should be my only play for tomorrow ... good luck all.
dogs 14-22 - 10.93 units
overs 2-1 +0.90 units
unders 17-17 - 0.35 units
totals pushes : 1
overall -0.15 units
so close to the handicappers mendoza line.
two unit recommendations
one unit recommendations
Toronot/k.c. under 8 -120
tor/kc under 8 -120 --- kind of a lot of juice to be laying here on an 8 but i think 8 might not be available manana. I want to back Greinke as everytime i bet on him pitching well , he comes thru for me. The thing is that he is no secret now and has gotten a little pricey. So in order to back him i prefer to look at the total and see if i think the royals will struggle. I think most folks around here know that the royals struggle mightily against left handed pitching as it is but to make matters worse , they are facing a guy who is getting righties out consistently ... without looking it up , i think i read under .100 so far this year. Tallet could pose some problems for this royals lineup. His limited numbers against the royals and at kaufman are nothing to be proud of though. Hoping winters slightly expands his strikezone with the zero earned run streak of greinke ... especially in front of what might be a large crowd to see zach pitch. Any widening of the strikezone to benefit the streak will likely carry over to the bottom half of each inning as well to keep it all consistent. Greinke history vs toronto is average but i am putting more weight on his current form. In my gut , i think the bjays have a solid chance of winning this game by a 2-1 or 3-2 type of score in the late innings but there is no way i am betting against my favorite pitcher here. Concern would be Tallet not going long innings but again i think the situation helps in that capacity. Would also not be surprised to see kc be more undisciplined at the plate with Greinke on the hill 1. it's just natural when you dont think you need to score as much and 2. to keep zach in rhythm throughout the game. Stadium lines up , pitchers form lines up , situationals line up ... worth the shot in my opinion ... and i have pretty much decided i am riding the greinke train until it bumps me off
strong leans -- might play a few of these super tiny
pitt +200 -- Snell at this price ?? but why is line moving the other direction ?? what am i missing here ?? great home stats for brewers pitcher but snell has better batter v pitcher stats imo.... certainly no way over a 162 games that brewers cash in 2 of 3 with this pitching matchup. Feel like there is something i have missed here and that is why i am scared.
cardinals +100
marlins +155 -- my instinct tells me the mets win this late with the better bullpen but johnson stats to start year and in particular his career stats vs the mets roster makes me consider the dog. This is the type of game that likely comes down to one key AB or defensive error. data vs instinct again .. so prolly a tiny marlin bet here but definitely wont qualify for a full unit. check the two pitchers splits vs opponents .... amazing ...... under worth a look as well.
nats +165 --- value.
m's/whitesox under --- morning start after a double header ... after looking more in depth there are more concerns than one would think. Who is playing ?? who is resting ?? will wait and see starting lineups before deciding and not a fan of the ump for unders. likely a pass.
tbay -130 --- kazmir regaining form , blackburn suffering without mauer presence behind hte plate. blackburn history at home and twins as a home dog history probably keep me off of this one. Under umpire dreckman really plays well for kazmir here as he can struggle with control at times. unhittable for lefties. i want to do it but it isn't my style of bet.
That should be my only play for tomorrow ... good luck all.
