RetroVK
This claim is disputed
favorites 12-6 +6.44 units
dogs 9-17 - 12.31 units
overs 1-1 -0.10 units
unders 7-11 - 3.70 units
totals pushes : 1
overall -9.67 units
Dmoney -- thanks for kind words.
Got several pms and emails yesterday with the basic premise of "keep your head up". Appreciate all of those. I try to be hard on myself because losing is unacceptable given the amount of time i invest in capping these baseball cards and the opportunity cost of that time. Two plays today that i relly like and hopefully start the good run today to get back over the handicappers mendoza line.
two unit recommendations
new york mets +130
dodgers/stros under 8.5 -110
mets ---- Livan hernandez is off to a good start this year and he lines up well vs the cardinals bats. Whenever looking to go against the cardinals i always try to find the guys that can minimize the damage from pujols and ankiel. Pujols is 8 of 29 ( .276) against livan in his career which are certainly acceptable numbers but he has just 1 extra base hit ( a ding dong ). Ankiel has never played against livan. Hernandez has started two games in the new busch stadium and has 14 ip , 13 hits , 3 er and 2 ding dongs. The other thing to consider with livan is that you get what you get whether he is away or home , playing in the day or at night , in april or in september. He is a pitcher that does better out of the stretch with runners on base which always makes him tough to sweat because he always seems to have runners on base. Lohse has pitched exceptionally well at home so far this year .. 16 ip , 8 hits 2 er but those games were against the astros and the pirates respectively so i believe them to be skewed slightly. When he faced the cubs lineup in his last outing he found the seas rougher. And i believe the mets lineup is more similar to the cubs than to the previous two teams mentioned. Here is the thing with this game .... the mets have seen a ton of lohse and they absolutely pound him. Looking at the stats , one might even think they found something where he is tipping his pitches.
Beltran 18 of 34 3 doubles 4 hr
church 5 of 11 1 double 1 hr
wright 6 of 14 with a homer
reyes 4 of 14 with a homer
you get the idea .. it's not just the key bats either but all of the bats. They hit .433 off lohse over 127 AB and i feel that is significant. My favorite umpire to watch is behind the plate today as i consider Gibson one of the most consistently fair umpires in the league. At +130 i think this is a winning bet long term. I also prefer the mets bullpen to that of the cards.
dodgers/astros under 8.5 --- Well i know i am on record as selecting felix hernandez as my american league cy young ... and i know i have shared with a couple of you guys on the phone that i believe billingsley will take the national league cy young ... so i am going on record with that today as well. Billingsley is simply unhittable as long as he can throw strikes. He has yeilded just 11 hits over 19 innings so far this year. You can expect a walk from him about every 2.5 innings. The thing is that i consider this umpire to be more of an under umpire at this point so i think that really helps billingsley. I also think he has reason to have confidence in his stuff here to throw strikes. In his start at minutemaid last year he went 8 innings gave up 6 hits and 0 earned runs. The astros have 70 AB against Billingsley and 0 home runs. They bat just .214 off of him and have just a .282 obp. Most importantly , he owns the astros key bats of berkman and carlos lee. Wandy has less than stellar splits against the dodgers but he is just a machine at home , is in great form and always pitches well in april. To me there will be an early key to this bet and that is the top of the first inning. If wandy gets through that half inning in decent shape then i think we cruise home with the under. I also have a strong lean to the dodgers here and so do the linesmakers .. wandy +120 at home is significant given his well known success at minutemaid. I am buckling down due to poor start and making sure bets really fill my normal strict requirements for making a bet rather than the shotgun approach i have been using in an attempt to push smaller edges this year atleast until things turn around. A road favorite of this size is not my style and therefore i am leaving it be and hopin wandy does what he usually does at home. The under is my style. Recent bat awakenings in this series give us the number value here imo.
good luck everyone. I have work in laughlin today so will be gone from midday forward.
nawlins , hit me up later dude.
dogs 9-17 - 12.31 units
overs 1-1 -0.10 units
unders 7-11 - 3.70 units
totals pushes : 1
overall -9.67 units
Dmoney -- thanks for kind words.
Got several pms and emails yesterday with the basic premise of "keep your head up". Appreciate all of those. I try to be hard on myself because losing is unacceptable given the amount of time i invest in capping these baseball cards and the opportunity cost of that time. Two plays today that i relly like and hopefully start the good run today to get back over the handicappers mendoza line.
two unit recommendations
new york mets +130
dodgers/stros under 8.5 -110
mets ---- Livan hernandez is off to a good start this year and he lines up well vs the cardinals bats. Whenever looking to go against the cardinals i always try to find the guys that can minimize the damage from pujols and ankiel. Pujols is 8 of 29 ( .276) against livan in his career which are certainly acceptable numbers but he has just 1 extra base hit ( a ding dong ). Ankiel has never played against livan. Hernandez has started two games in the new busch stadium and has 14 ip , 13 hits , 3 er and 2 ding dongs. The other thing to consider with livan is that you get what you get whether he is away or home , playing in the day or at night , in april or in september. He is a pitcher that does better out of the stretch with runners on base which always makes him tough to sweat because he always seems to have runners on base. Lohse has pitched exceptionally well at home so far this year .. 16 ip , 8 hits 2 er but those games were against the astros and the pirates respectively so i believe them to be skewed slightly. When he faced the cubs lineup in his last outing he found the seas rougher. And i believe the mets lineup is more similar to the cubs than to the previous two teams mentioned. Here is the thing with this game .... the mets have seen a ton of lohse and they absolutely pound him. Looking at the stats , one might even think they found something where he is tipping his pitches.
Beltran 18 of 34 3 doubles 4 hr
church 5 of 11 1 double 1 hr
wright 6 of 14 with a homer
reyes 4 of 14 with a homer
you get the idea .. it's not just the key bats either but all of the bats. They hit .433 off lohse over 127 AB and i feel that is significant. My favorite umpire to watch is behind the plate today as i consider Gibson one of the most consistently fair umpires in the league. At +130 i think this is a winning bet long term. I also prefer the mets bullpen to that of the cards.
dodgers/astros under 8.5 --- Well i know i am on record as selecting felix hernandez as my american league cy young ... and i know i have shared with a couple of you guys on the phone that i believe billingsley will take the national league cy young ... so i am going on record with that today as well. Billingsley is simply unhittable as long as he can throw strikes. He has yeilded just 11 hits over 19 innings so far this year. You can expect a walk from him about every 2.5 innings. The thing is that i consider this umpire to be more of an under umpire at this point so i think that really helps billingsley. I also think he has reason to have confidence in his stuff here to throw strikes. In his start at minutemaid last year he went 8 innings gave up 6 hits and 0 earned runs. The astros have 70 AB against Billingsley and 0 home runs. They bat just .214 off of him and have just a .282 obp. Most importantly , he owns the astros key bats of berkman and carlos lee. Wandy has less than stellar splits against the dodgers but he is just a machine at home , is in great form and always pitches well in april. To me there will be an early key to this bet and that is the top of the first inning. If wandy gets through that half inning in decent shape then i think we cruise home with the under. I also have a strong lean to the dodgers here and so do the linesmakers .. wandy +120 at home is significant given his well known success at minutemaid. I am buckling down due to poor start and making sure bets really fill my normal strict requirements for making a bet rather than the shotgun approach i have been using in an attempt to push smaller edges this year atleast until things turn around. A road favorite of this size is not my style and therefore i am leaving it be and hopin wandy does what he usually does at home. The under is my style. Recent bat awakenings in this series give us the number value here imo.
good luck everyone. I have work in laughlin today so will be gone from midday forward.
nawlins , hit me up later dude.
