Time to bet the twilight zone

[BetCrimes1984]

Lets see..

- a team loses game 1 away by 3 goals
- they lose game 2 in OT
- they win game 3 by 1 goal
- they lose game 4 by 1 goal
- they win games 5 & 6, scoring 5 goals both times
- and play a game 7 threatening to win a series from from 1-3 down...

...is this the Bruins vs. the Habs circa 2008? well, yes and no. No, because it also describes perfectly the Habs vs. the Bruins circa 2004 (Habs won game 7 2-0 to complete the comeback).
Cue the twilight zone music.


I have to have a (small) bet on the Boston ml here....

- Their Habs-hoodoo has well and truly been broken (10 goals in 2 games/wins will do that).

- They have equally as good season stats in 1-goal games (both generally and vs all other playoff teams) as the Habs do, which comes into sharp focus relevance wise given a game 7 situation.

- Price's head space as a rookie has to be seen as questionable, making any play on the Habs untenable imo - earlier this season he sucked at home and was stellar on the road, and now the unthinkable stares him squarely in the face (losing from 3-1 up) at home in front of a team who have just popped 10 goals on him in 2 games.

- I always look for a reason why to explain any change arounds in a series, as a basis to believe its really down to the team who has come back (as opposed to being down to the team leading being responsible, in that they gained a series lead so took things easy. When things get tough again, they cease to take it easy and their former dominance usually returns to what it was earlier in the series). Here, it's identifiable as the Bruins coach sitting Phil Kessel for games 2-3-4, and in his returning for games 5 (tied the game at 1-1) & 6 (tied it 1-1, gave them their first lead 4-3) he has 3 goals and has ignited his team. This means Boston simply isnt the same team that Montreal furnished a 3-1 lead over in the first place.

- finally, the 'twilight zone facts' speak to a payback/full-circle situation: Boston suffered this exact fate at the hands of the Habs 4 years ago, and now each team is re-treading in each others footsteps to an insane degree. At these odds why bet against, rather than with, that insanity?

 

[catfood]

Also it was the same coach -Claude Julien.

 

[catfood]

Montreal when leading 3-1, is 27-0 in winning the series.
Boston when trailing 1-3 is 0-20 in winning the series. But all in all I agree, the ghosts of forum past better lace up for this one.

 

[catfood]

Montreal's record in game 7s 10-8
Bostons record in game 7s 9-7

 

[catfood]

The only thing positive I can think about concerning the habs is that in the past cup runs, they have played really poor and got lucky to get out of the first round...1986 comes to mind when the habs won game 7 in OT against the Hartford Whalers...The 1986 team is alot similar to the habs today: Rookie goalie and lots of rookies.

 

[catfood]

Of the 120 series in league playoff history that have gone to 7 games, 29 have been decided in OT. In those 29 games: home teams are 15-14, road teams however are 10-4 since 1990.

 

[catfood]

Since the NHL introduced the best of 7 format: Home team has won 63% , 76 times out of 120

 

[BetCrimes1984]

catfood, I won't be suprised if Montreal wins. But these odds against a goalie who could very well fold if things don't go his way I can't ignore.
I can't expect a shutout from Thomas, I give the Habs 2 goals minimum off him. But this B's offense has lept a gear since Kessel came back, so I'm pretty much expecting another wild one, which obviously isn't the normal template for game 7s.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

20 of 220 teams (9.1%) have come back from 1-3 down to win a series (latest failure Anaheim - TBD: Washington & of course Boston)

 

[Santacapper]

Took the Habs myself, IMO, I like Price in his rink in either goalies first game 7... we'll see what he's made of tonight thats for sure.

 

[catfood]

If I were coach, Id start Halak. I do hope and think Montreal escapes with the win but Im curious to see who dresses, Im not touching the game though irregardless. Its too hard on my nerves.

 

[catfood]

Just got a 'fun fact' on my newsfeed: Alex Kovalev is 5-0 in game 7s.

 

[Santacapper]

If I were coach, Id start Halak. I do hope and think Montreal escapes with the win but Im curious to see who dresses, Im not touching the game though irregardless. Its too hard on my nerves.

IMO no way you can start Halak in game 7 of the first round...

I really dont think Price was to blame in Game 6, he got hung out to dry a few times and some weak play on the blue lines with the puck.

 

[catfood]

IMO no way you can start Halak in game 7 of the first round...

I really dont think Price was to blame in Game 6, he got hung out to dry a few times and some weak play on the blue lines with the puck.

I also would have the players run through sewers after a bad effort, I guess Im slightly unorthodox lol

 

[Santacapper]

maybe thats what they did and Kovalev got lost in them... 4 points in 6 games not so good.

B's have done well with Streit though, most noteably on the PP

 

[catfood]

maybe thats what they did and Kovalev got lost in them... 4 points in 6 games not so good.

B's have done well with Streit though, most noteably on the PP

My only reasoning with starting Halak (2-1 lifetime vs Bruins .954 save percentage) is that the man is dying to upstage Price. Price came in Hamilton out of nowhere and took his spot, eventhough Halak was doing well...Last year in Montreals must win situation to make the playoffs, Halak (who was doing fairly well) was passed over for Huet who was returning from injury, and the habs lost. Never underestimate the ego of a goaltender who keeps getting passed over for no good reason, i always say. I like the habs tonight with Price, but I would love the habs tonight with Halak.......But too many habs have been MIA. The defense/defensive zone coverage has been more than bad...Chara is hurt and no one is hitting him, there hasnt been any heart.

 

[catfood]

Other fun fact: Boston have played only 3 game 7s on the road and lost all 3 of them.

 

[Santacapper]

you're listening to MTL sports radio aren't you

 

[Santacapper]

After Game 6: The Boston Bruins hosted and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 5-goals-4 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1023 at 3-games-all. When tied in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-all, the Montreal Canadiens have a 10-8 Game 7 record. When tied in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-all, the Boston Bruins have a 9-7 Game 7 record. From 1939 through 2007, inclusive, home teams in the NHL (e.g., Montreal in series 1023) have a best-of-7 Game 7 record of 76-44 (.633) in all rounds, and a best-of-7 Game 7 record of 25-17 (.595) in the Preliminary round. From 1939 through 2007, inclusive, the NHL team winning Games 1-2, losing Game 3, winning Game 4, and losing Games 5-6 irrespective of site (e.g., Montreal in series 1023) had a Preliminary-round Game 7 record of 1-3.

 

[catfood]

you're listening to MTL sports radio aren't you

Actually I wasnt but it was a rss feed from a sprots radio

Montreal is 7-3 in game 7s at home

 

[Gandolf]

Montreal when leading 3-1, is 27-0 in winning the series.
Boston when trailing 1-3 is 0-20 in winning the series. But all in all I agree, the ghosts of forum past better lace up for this one.

How many demons can the city of Boston exorcise in 1 decade? This smells like Boston vs. The Evil Empire all over again.

 

[tigercub]

haha bc, liked the twilight zone description of this series. it is very eery how this series compares to the one in 04 when the habs upsetted the b's. i remember raycroft (then a rookie) was unflappable in that series, til i think game 6, when he let up 5 goals. then heading back to boston in game 7 then whole team looked defeated. price's give away in game 5 this year has seemed to deflate his team and also kill his confidence. hopefully the pressure builds to much on him for tonights game 7 in montreal.

i ALMOST bet the b's to win the series when they fell down 3-1, based on the fact that i believe they were outplaying the habs in games 2-4. also the resemblance to that 04 series had crossed my mind. i did bet the b's in game 6 and will do so in game 7 as well.

it is very good to see that the b's are starting to garner alot of attention around here in boston, as i think they are much deserving. with all the success of the pats, sox, and c's lately, the bruins have been kind of shut out from a media standpoint. but since this playoff run and now this sudden comeback in the series vs. the hated montreal canadiens, everyone seems to be again pulling for the hometown black and gold. im sure the players are appreciative of all the support they have been getting from all the other boston clubs and fans and will not want to dissapoint tonight and be put back on the back-burner of the boston sports scene if you will. GO B'S!!!!!!!!!

 

[catfood]

Whoaa back the truck up, I just read that Carbonneau is going to wear his lucky tie tonight-Bruins are toast! lol

 

[catfood]

No lineup changes for the habs from game 6...I just dont get it. Obyrne and Ryder should be in, at least they have some grit.

 

[tigercub]

haha catfood, guy's gonna need alot more than a lucky tie for tonights game. 2 hours til gametime, im am absolutely psyched for this game. i read in the paper today that those ghosts from the old forum dont like $10 beers lol. we put away the ghosts from yankee stadium, now its time to do the same to the habs. heres to a great game 7 :cheers:

 

[catfood]

Enjoy the game tigercub :cheers:

 

[Liquidnoose]

can NOT wait for this...Game 7's are cherished...just hope it is a solid game.

Here's to the 2 teams and their fans...

 

[catfood]

Saw in the newspaper today a picture of people who went to church yesterday wearing their habs jerseys lol

 

[tigercub]

haha ya i guess i wouldnt doubt it. but people from boston have been reporting all day that they were expecting the city to be crazy like it was for games 1 and 2, but they said it was very down and unemotional. hopefully the b's can get the first one, and keeps the fans out of it.

 

[catfood]

Well the habs won, I was worried though after the first period. I cant say Im thrilled with the way Montreal won, seems Boston's defensive coverage had some unusual lapses compared to the last few games. But a win is a win - watch out for Montreal now.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I was worried though after the first period

Boston was cooked before the 2nd even started. All those shots and general dominance in the 1st, and they trailed 0-1 due to one of their own players. That was the game done right there.

On another note, I'm convinced there will be a knife egde game 7, but as yet am undecided which one it'll be.