Timberwolves vs. Lakers NBA Picks and Predictions
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, December 27, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California
Key Injury #1: Karl-Anthony Towns
Star center Karl-Anthony Towns had to leave yesterday’s game as his Timberwolves were leading Utah.
After driving to the basket, Towns landed hard on his left wrist. While he shoots with his right hand, this is the same wrist that he fractured last season.
He is officially listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s contest.
Key Injury #2: Anthony Davis
Laker power forward Anthony Davis has reportedly been dealing with a right calf contusion, although it is unclear when he suffered this injury.
Perhaps the Lakers simply want an excuse to indulge in some load management ahead of a back-to-back.
At all events, AD is officially listed as ‘questionable’ for the game tonight.
Life Without Towns
Minnesota held off Utah despite Towns’ injury.
His absence allowed the Timberwolves to truly showcase their depth in scoring.
In particular, D’Angelo Russell relished the opportunity to adopt the role as top scorer.
Russell stepped up to score a team-high 25 points, which were largely a product of his characteristic mid-range jumper, which he is known for executing very efficiently:
The Lakers are allowing one of the higher field-goal percentages against opposing mid-range jumpers. So they are vulnerable to what Russell likes to do.
While Russell will create his own shot by pulling up or perhaps finishing with skill at the rim, he has earned high-percentile PPP (points per possession) averages as a spot-up shooter.
Russell’s six assists yesterday were also characteristic because he is known for having great vision. He manipulates defenders with his eyes and reliably locates and hits his target even in stride.
An efficient mid-range shot is useful to Russell because he will draw an opposing rim protector away from the basket where he will have more space to locate a teammate.
His creativity as well as the creativity of fellow newcomer Ricky Rubio — who had six assists yesterday and is also known for being a very good passer — is obviously fruitful.
Another newcomer who is already making a positive impact is rookie Anthony Edwards.
Edwards finished 8-for-12 in field goals as he attacked the rim at will despite the presence of two-time Defensive Player of the Year, center Rudy Gobert.
Even without Towns, Edwards plus strongly improved second-year man Jarrett Culver have more room in front of the basket because of center Naz Reid.
Like Towns, Reid is a threat from deep. Yesterday, for example, Reid was two-for-four from three. So he can stretch the floor and draw the opposing center away from the basket.
Missing Anthony Davis On Defense
Not having Davis tomorrow would be big because the Lakers would miss that superb rim protector.
Davis is a reliable shot-blocker when he’s healthy, which is partly why he was runner up for Defensive Player of the Year last year.
If Davis is unable to play, then Markieff Morris would get more playing time. Fellow big Montrezl Harrell would also acquire greater responsibility in the interior defense.
As evidenced by his atrocious defensive rating last year, Morris is a defensive liability. Harrell, too, creates a liability on defense. His real plus/minus ranking on defense last year provides proof of this weakness.
So losing Davis means not only losing a great defender but seeing defensive responsibility increase in other players who are poor defenders.
With their bevy of options inside the arc, Minnesota would exploit a Laker defense that misses Davis.
Minnesota’s Defense
The Lakers would also miss Davis’ 23 points per game.
It is true that Harrell is much better on offense than on defense. I also didn’t mention Dennis Shroder and his ability in isolation or LeBron.
But what NBA Oddsmakers clearly aren’t accounting for is the transformation that Minnesota is experiencing on defense.
Harrell is undersized at 6-7. So the size difference between him and Josh Okogie at the four would not be as drastic as it was when Okogie more than held his own against Detroit’s Blake Griffin, who put up lackluster numbers.
Okogie, with his superb wingspan, is also a strong perimeter defender, as is Jarrett Culver, who came out of the NBA Draft having sowed this reputation at Texas Tech.
Guard Ricky Rubio, too, came in from Phoenix with a reputation for good defense.
Their prowess on the perimeter helps explain why Utah shot only 38 percent from the field, 29 percent from deep, and committed 18 turnovers.
While the four continues to appear like a problem, the team defense more than makes up for it by digging and even collapsing inside while still being able to recover to opposing shooters at the perimeter.
The Verdict
No Towns, no problem. Minnesota will generate room in front of the basket with good spacing and it will exploit this room with good driving and mid-range jumpers from the likes of Russell, Edwards, and Culver.
Defensively, the transformed Timberwolves will produce another performance that proves the large spread unjustifiable.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +11 at -110 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, December 27, 2020 at 10 p.m. ET at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California
Key Injury #1: Karl-Anthony Towns
Star center Karl-Anthony Towns had to leave yesterday’s game as his Timberwolves were leading Utah.
After driving to the basket, Towns landed hard on his left wrist. While he shoots with his right hand, this is the same wrist that he fractured last season.
He is officially listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s contest.
Key Injury #2: Anthony Davis
Laker power forward Anthony Davis has reportedly been dealing with a right calf contusion, although it is unclear when he suffered this injury.
Perhaps the Lakers simply want an excuse to indulge in some load management ahead of a back-to-back.
At all events, AD is officially listed as ‘questionable’ for the game tonight.
Life Without Towns
Minnesota held off Utah despite Towns’ injury.
His absence allowed the Timberwolves to truly showcase their depth in scoring.
In particular, D’Angelo Russell relished the opportunity to adopt the role as top scorer.
Russell stepped up to score a team-high 25 points, which were largely a product of his characteristic mid-range jumper, which he is known for executing very efficiently:
The Lakers are allowing one of the higher field-goal percentages against opposing mid-range jumpers. So they are vulnerable to what Russell likes to do.
While Russell will create his own shot by pulling up or perhaps finishing with skill at the rim, he has earned high-percentile PPP (points per possession) averages as a spot-up shooter.
Russell’s six assists yesterday were also characteristic because he is known for having great vision. He manipulates defenders with his eyes and reliably locates and hits his target even in stride.
An efficient mid-range shot is useful to Russell because he will draw an opposing rim protector away from the basket where he will have more space to locate a teammate.
His creativity as well as the creativity of fellow newcomer Ricky Rubio — who had six assists yesterday and is also known for being a very good passer — is obviously fruitful.
Another newcomer who is already making a positive impact is rookie Anthony Edwards.
Edwards finished 8-for-12 in field goals as he attacked the rim at will despite the presence of two-time Defensive Player of the Year, center Rudy Gobert.
Even without Towns, Edwards plus strongly improved second-year man Jarrett Culver have more room in front of the basket because of center Naz Reid.
Like Towns, Reid is a threat from deep. Yesterday, for example, Reid was two-for-four from three. So he can stretch the floor and draw the opposing center away from the basket.
Missing Anthony Davis On Defense
Not having Davis tomorrow would be big because the Lakers would miss that superb rim protector.
Davis is a reliable shot-blocker when he’s healthy, which is partly why he was runner up for Defensive Player of the Year last year.
If Davis is unable to play, then Markieff Morris would get more playing time. Fellow big Montrezl Harrell would also acquire greater responsibility in the interior defense.
As evidenced by his atrocious defensive rating last year, Morris is a defensive liability. Harrell, too, creates a liability on defense. His real plus/minus ranking on defense last year provides proof of this weakness.
So losing Davis means not only losing a great defender but seeing defensive responsibility increase in other players who are poor defenders.
With their bevy of options inside the arc, Minnesota would exploit a Laker defense that misses Davis.
Minnesota’s Defense
The Lakers would also miss Davis’ 23 points per game.
It is true that Harrell is much better on offense than on defense. I also didn’t mention Dennis Shroder and his ability in isolation or LeBron.
But what NBA Oddsmakers clearly aren’t accounting for is the transformation that Minnesota is experiencing on defense.
Harrell is undersized at 6-7. So the size difference between him and Josh Okogie at the four would not be as drastic as it was when Okogie more than held his own against Detroit’s Blake Griffin, who put up lackluster numbers.
Okogie, with his superb wingspan, is also a strong perimeter defender, as is Jarrett Culver, who came out of the NBA Draft having sowed this reputation at Texas Tech.
Guard Ricky Rubio, too, came in from Phoenix with a reputation for good defense.
Their prowess on the perimeter helps explain why Utah shot only 38 percent from the field, 29 percent from deep, and committed 18 turnovers.
While the four continues to appear like a problem, the team defense more than makes up for it by digging and even collapsing inside while still being able to recover to opposing shooters at the perimeter.
The Verdict
No Towns, no problem. Minnesota will generate room in front of the basket with good spacing and it will exploit this room with good driving and mid-range jumpers from the likes of Russell, Edwards, and Culver.
Defensively, the transformed Timberwolves will produce another performance that proves the large spread unjustifiable.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +11 at -110 with BetOnline
