NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, January 18, 2021 at 2:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
Trae Young
Atlanta’s offense largely revolves around its pick-and-roll game, which foregrounds point guard Trae Young.
Thanks to Young, the Hawks run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler with the fifth-highest frequency in the NBA.
Young will use a screen to slither and navigate his way inside the paint. He is fluid, shifty and a smooth ball-handler.
By using a screen, Young creates a difficult situation for his trailing defender, who becomes more likely to foul Young as he tries to catch up.
Because Young is a high-percentage free throw shooter, it’s meaningful that he attempts almost six more free throws per game than any of his teammates.
In addition to drawing fouls, Young averages 8.6 assists per game partly because he excels at throwing lobs to a bigger teammate at the basket.
The threat that Young poses as a passer must frustrate rim-protectors by putting them in a bind. They would have to advance forward in order to account for Young’s shooting ability inside the arc especially when undeterred by the trailing defender.
But then these rim-protectors would leave more space around the basket for the lob.
With Young, the Hawks match up well against a Minnesota defense that ranks eight-worst in defending the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler as measured by PPP (points per possession).
Missing Ricky Rubio
Young is further helped by the absence of key Minnesota defenders.
For example, his counterpart Ricky Rubio is stuck in quarantine.
While Rubio’s defensive rating looks poor, his defensive statistics are influenced by his team’s offensive troubles.
Rubio’s absence will help Young because Rubio has become well-known for his strong on-ball defense and for the pressure that he applies on opposing point guards.
Missing Rim Protection
As measured by defensive rating, center Karl-Anthony Towns is one of Minnesota’s top defenders. But he won’t play because he has COVID right now.
Towns gives Minnesota sorely needed rim protection. His frequent absences help explain why, in terms of opposing field goal attempts and opposing field goal percentage, Minnesota is the worst team at defending shots five feet within the basket.
When Towns is not on the court, the Timberwolves rank among the NBA’s worst in defensive rating.
Besides Young utilizing the pick-and-roll, look out for De’Andre Hunter. Hunter is taking leaps and bounds in his transition to the NBA and is currently the team’s second-leading scorer behind Young.
In college, Hunter was criticized for lacking variety in the ways in which he wanted to attack the rim.
But he is scoring more partly because he has advanced his offensive arsenal.
Also an efficient three-point shooter, Hunter reliably scores on multiple levels.
Hunter and fellow youngster John Collins, a favorite lob partner of Young, help explain why the Hawks attempt so much at the basket.
Three-point shooting is not Atlanta’s strength. They tried to improve in this department by acquiring Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari.
Neither player is available tonight for the Hawks. But their injuries are not significant because the Hawks have the personnel to exploit Minnesota inside especially given the Timberwolves’ injuries.
Transition Game
Easy baskets are something I want to expect if I am betting an “over.” Atlanta will accrue plenty of these with its transition game.
Atlanta is a relatively fast-paced team partly because of its transition offense. The Hawks match up favorably because, as measured by opposing PPP, the Timberwolves are terrible at stopping their opponent in transition.
Even an injury-ridden Memphis squad killed the Timberwolves in fast break points especially in the fourth quarter.
Minnesota defenders struggle to get back on defense in time and they struggle to match up well with an opposing offense on the move.
The Verdict
Offensively, Minnesota will help contribute to the “over” with its plethora of increasingly aggressive drivers like second-leading scorer D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Jarrett Culver attacking a Hawk basket that misses formidable rim protection — Atlanta ranks 29th in block percentage.
But oddsmakers are struggling to account for how poor Minnesota is overall and on defense without Towns.
The Hawks match up well with Minnesota with their pick-and-roll game and their transition attack.
Best Bet: Parlay Hawks -7.5 at -115 & Over 227.5 at -120 at +243 odds with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, January 18, 2021 at 2:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
Trae Young
Atlanta’s offense largely revolves around its pick-and-roll game, which foregrounds point guard Trae Young.
Thanks to Young, the Hawks run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler with the fifth-highest frequency in the NBA.
Young will use a screen to slither and navigate his way inside the paint. He is fluid, shifty and a smooth ball-handler.
By using a screen, Young creates a difficult situation for his trailing defender, who becomes more likely to foul Young as he tries to catch up.
Because Young is a high-percentage free throw shooter, it’s meaningful that he attempts almost six more free throws per game than any of his teammates.
In addition to drawing fouls, Young averages 8.6 assists per game partly because he excels at throwing lobs to a bigger teammate at the basket.
The threat that Young poses as a passer must frustrate rim-protectors by putting them in a bind. They would have to advance forward in order to account for Young’s shooting ability inside the arc especially when undeterred by the trailing defender.
But then these rim-protectors would leave more space around the basket for the lob.
With Young, the Hawks match up well against a Minnesota defense that ranks eight-worst in defending the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler as measured by PPP (points per possession).
Missing Ricky Rubio
Young is further helped by the absence of key Minnesota defenders.
For example, his counterpart Ricky Rubio is stuck in quarantine.
While Rubio’s defensive rating looks poor, his defensive statistics are influenced by his team’s offensive troubles.
Rubio’s absence will help Young because Rubio has become well-known for his strong on-ball defense and for the pressure that he applies on opposing point guards.
Missing Rim Protection
As measured by defensive rating, center Karl-Anthony Towns is one of Minnesota’s top defenders. But he won’t play because he has COVID right now.
Towns gives Minnesota sorely needed rim protection. His frequent absences help explain why, in terms of opposing field goal attempts and opposing field goal percentage, Minnesota is the worst team at defending shots five feet within the basket.
When Towns is not on the court, the Timberwolves rank among the NBA’s worst in defensive rating.
Besides Young utilizing the pick-and-roll, look out for De’Andre Hunter. Hunter is taking leaps and bounds in his transition to the NBA and is currently the team’s second-leading scorer behind Young.
In college, Hunter was criticized for lacking variety in the ways in which he wanted to attack the rim.
But he is scoring more partly because he has advanced his offensive arsenal.
Also an efficient three-point shooter, Hunter reliably scores on multiple levels.
Hunter and fellow youngster John Collins, a favorite lob partner of Young, help explain why the Hawks attempt so much at the basket.
Three-point shooting is not Atlanta’s strength. They tried to improve in this department by acquiring Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari.
Neither player is available tonight for the Hawks. But their injuries are not significant because the Hawks have the personnel to exploit Minnesota inside especially given the Timberwolves’ injuries.
Transition Game
Easy baskets are something I want to expect if I am betting an “over.” Atlanta will accrue plenty of these with its transition game.
Atlanta is a relatively fast-paced team partly because of its transition offense. The Hawks match up favorably because, as measured by opposing PPP, the Timberwolves are terrible at stopping their opponent in transition.
Even an injury-ridden Memphis squad killed the Timberwolves in fast break points especially in the fourth quarter.
Minnesota defenders struggle to get back on defense in time and they struggle to match up well with an opposing offense on the move.
The Verdict
Offensively, Minnesota will help contribute to the “over” with its plethora of increasingly aggressive drivers like second-leading scorer D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Jarrett Culver attacking a Hawk basket that misses formidable rim protection — Atlanta ranks 29th in block percentage.
But oddsmakers are struggling to account for how poor Minnesota is overall and on defense without Towns.
The Hawks match up well with Minnesota with their pick-and-roll game and their transition attack.
Best Bet: Parlay Hawks -7.5 at -115 & Over 227.5 at -120 at +243 odds with BetOnline
