Game 1 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Key Trend Points to Denver
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, May 4, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
Game 1 Trend
I like Denver tonight because of its strong track record in Game 1.
Dating to last postseason, the Nuggets have begun every series with a 1-0 lead.
Last year, in Game 1, they beat the Timberwolves by 29, the Suns by 18, the Lakers by six, and the Heat by eleven.
They continued this trend when, this year, they beat the Lakers by eleven in what would be the game with the largest margin of victory in that series.
Last year saw the closest Game 1, with Denver beating the Lakers by six. The Lakers required 40 points from Anthony Davis and an 11-out of-25 effort from three to come that close.
As bad as the Nuggets have looked this postseason, they still triumphed in Game 1.
This is a very confident Nuggets team that, in part, is not exerting too much more effort than it needs to.
The defending champs possess the confidence to come from behind, such that they comfortably spend a lot of time trailing but still win games.
Adjustment Needed
Minnesota is going to have trouble, especially at first, going from facing a mentally weak Phoenix team, that was not so much a team as a collection of individual players, with poor interior defense to facing the defending champion Nuggets.
The Nuggets play well together. They're tough. And they play defense.
Minnesota had it pretty easy in their last series, in which they swept the Suns, with three of their wins coming by double digits.
Denver, besides every thing else, is much better coached than Phoenix, so the Nuggets will come prepared.
Three-Pointers
Tonight, Denver will edge out Minnesota on the strength of its three-point shooting.
The Nuggets will shoot more efficiently because they are due to do so.
Last series, they converted just 29.8 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts and 26.3 percent of their open ones.
They fell behind the Timberwolves drastically in both statistics.
Over time, one expects teams to shoot percentages that reflect their ability.
Denver is one of the more efficient teams from behind the arc, especially at home, where they shoot 38.4-percent from deep, which would put Denver at fourth-place in three-point shooting percentage if this were an overall (instead of just home) statistic.
Expect Denver's offense to be at its best in Game 1 of this series.
In this series, Denver's lack of depth is a concern against what is an impressively deep Minnesota team.
But the Nuggets, who have not played since Monday, are well-rested and as fresh as can be right now.
Jamal Murray's Decline
While three-point shooting will favor the Nuggets, this is still an offense that will fail to score enough points to help the game go "over."
Jamal Murray, perhaps his calf more precisely, shoulders blame for this.
Playing through a calf injury, he is not himself: his efficiency this postseason is worse than it had ever been in previous postseasons.
Key Defenders
Minnesota is going to a better job defensively in this series than last series because of the experience it gained and because it has the personnel to succeed.
The key defender is Jaden McDaniels, who gave Devin Booker and Bradley Beal so much trouble last series.
Minnesota missed him in this series last year because he was injured.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, with his physical style of defense, did a great job limiting the efficiency of a healthy Murray last season.
Minnesota gave him a big boost in minutes toward the end of the series last year, so expect him to play a significant role from the start.
Another key defender is Mike Conley with his toughness and especially his screen navigation.
I imagine that he'll stick to sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr., a significant catch-and-shoot threat who likes to use screens.
Karl-Anthony Towns is another key defender. He will likely be tasked with containing Nikola Jokic.
Jokic loves to be a facilitator. While he's a dangerous scorer and high-level rebounder, he is often looking to get his teammates going.
Perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate center Rudy Gobert occupying the roamer role for Minnesota will make things all the more difficult for Jokic's teammates around the basket.
Denver's Defense
Make no mistake that Denver also has a host of excellent defenders, with Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope worth highlighting.
The Nuggets have the defensive personnel to bother teams along the perimeter, but they'll also put bodies in front of the basket in order to collect rebounds and to limit inside scoring.
Takeaway
This will be a high-level defensive affair in which both teams struggle to sniff 100.
Both teams have so many good defenders to match up against the other offense with, and both teams are also so well-coached.
Denver's three-point shooting is going to make the difference as the defending champion Nuggets continue to find a way to start their series off 1-0.
Best Bet: Parlay Nuggets ML at -180 & Under 209 at -105 at +204 odds with Bovada
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, May 5, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Free Throw Shooting
Orlando won Game 6 but did so in ways that will not repeat themselves.
The Magic won only by seven despite making 17 more free throws.
This free throw disparity is ridiculous.
It was also unfair, as the Cavaliers attacked a lot inside and were not rightly rewarded for their aggressiveness. A lot of close contact calls did not go their way.
One must expect the foul game to shift in Cleveland's favor at home, especially given its aggressive style of play.
Jalen Suggs and Company
Something else that won't sustain itself for Orlando is the success of Jalen Suggs.
Suggs helped the Magic win Game 6, but that game took place in Orlando, whereas Game 7 is in Cleveland.
In three games in Orlando, Suggs shot 81.1 percent, 57.1 percent, and 43.8 percent from the floor, respectively.
Conversely, in Cleveland, he has shot 25 percent, 40 percent off only five attempts, and 35.7 percent.
His non-existence in Cleveland will be decisive.
Paolo Banchero's masterclass performance bailed out Orlando, from an ATS perspective, in Game 5, but the Cavaliers, partly due to a different starting lineup, were more prepared for him in Game 6.
Evan Mobley
Cleveland hung within seven points of Orlando in Game 6 despite getting almost nothing from Evan Mobley.
Jarrett Allen's absence is likely hurting Mobley, who has to occupy the five without him. It would help if Allen plays, but Mobley has been so good in Cleveland that Allen's absence won't matter – Gary Harris for Orlando is anyhow also injured.
Three-Point Shooting
Moreover, the three-point shooting will tip in Cleveland's favor when the game moves to Cleveland.
Whereas Orlando has been awful in Cleveland and overall from behind the arc, the Cavs experience a significant statistical uptick – almost three percentage points on the season – in three-point shooting percentage when they move home.
Coaching
In Game 5 in Cleveland, Cleveland's coaching staff was much more creative. The in-game adjustments were strong and the offense was at its best.
Expect a similar effort in Game 7 after what was a lackluster coaching effort in Game 6 in Orlando.
Cleveland's gameplan was horribly predictable: Donovan Mitchell drove inside again and again.
While his determination to drive inside underscores an important point of vulnerability in Orlando's defense, the Magic became too well prepared for it, allowing them to win the fourth quarter and consequently the game.
Role players often get a big boost at home, so expect Mitchell's supporting cast to step up. Cleveland will find a way to get them more involved offensively, which is something that it could and should have done a better job of doing in Game 6.
Just giving the ball more to Darius Garland, who has turned it on these last two games, for four quarters will do wonders.
Takeaway
Cleveland had a five-point lead heading into the fourth quarter in Game 6.
At home, the Cavaliers will cover the spread thanks to better three-point shooting, a stronger performance from Mobley along with a weaker one from Suggs, more free throws, more balanced offensive play, and their characteristically solid defense at home against an inefficient Magic offense.
All of these factors will amount to a powerful shift in the score line relative to Game 6.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -3.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, May 4, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
Game 1 Trend
I like Denver tonight because of its strong track record in Game 1.
Dating to last postseason, the Nuggets have begun every series with a 1-0 lead.
Last year, in Game 1, they beat the Timberwolves by 29, the Suns by 18, the Lakers by six, and the Heat by eleven.
They continued this trend when, this year, they beat the Lakers by eleven in what would be the game with the largest margin of victory in that series.
Last year saw the closest Game 1, with Denver beating the Lakers by six. The Lakers required 40 points from Anthony Davis and an 11-out of-25 effort from three to come that close.
As bad as the Nuggets have looked this postseason, they still triumphed in Game 1.
This is a very confident Nuggets team that, in part, is not exerting too much more effort than it needs to.
The defending champs possess the confidence to come from behind, such that they comfortably spend a lot of time trailing but still win games.
Adjustment Needed
Minnesota is going to have trouble, especially at first, going from facing a mentally weak Phoenix team, that was not so much a team as a collection of individual players, with poor interior defense to facing the defending champion Nuggets.
The Nuggets play well together. They're tough. And they play defense.
Minnesota had it pretty easy in their last series, in which they swept the Suns, with three of their wins coming by double digits.
Denver, besides every thing else, is much better coached than Phoenix, so the Nuggets will come prepared.
Three-Pointers
Tonight, Denver will edge out Minnesota on the strength of its three-point shooting.
The Nuggets will shoot more efficiently because they are due to do so.
Last series, they converted just 29.8 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts and 26.3 percent of their open ones.
They fell behind the Timberwolves drastically in both statistics.
Over time, one expects teams to shoot percentages that reflect their ability.
Denver is one of the more efficient teams from behind the arc, especially at home, where they shoot 38.4-percent from deep, which would put Denver at fourth-place in three-point shooting percentage if this were an overall (instead of just home) statistic.
Expect Denver's offense to be at its best in Game 1 of this series.
In this series, Denver's lack of depth is a concern against what is an impressively deep Minnesota team.
But the Nuggets, who have not played since Monday, are well-rested and as fresh as can be right now.
Jamal Murray's Decline
While three-point shooting will favor the Nuggets, this is still an offense that will fail to score enough points to help the game go "over."
Jamal Murray, perhaps his calf more precisely, shoulders blame for this.
Playing through a calf injury, he is not himself: his efficiency this postseason is worse than it had ever been in previous postseasons.
Key Defenders
Minnesota is going to a better job defensively in this series than last series because of the experience it gained and because it has the personnel to succeed.
The key defender is Jaden McDaniels, who gave Devin Booker and Bradley Beal so much trouble last series.
Minnesota missed him in this series last year because he was injured.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, with his physical style of defense, did a great job limiting the efficiency of a healthy Murray last season.
Minnesota gave him a big boost in minutes toward the end of the series last year, so expect him to play a significant role from the start.
Another key defender is Mike Conley with his toughness and especially his screen navigation.
I imagine that he'll stick to sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr., a significant catch-and-shoot threat who likes to use screens.
Karl-Anthony Towns is another key defender. He will likely be tasked with containing Nikola Jokic.
Jokic loves to be a facilitator. While he's a dangerous scorer and high-level rebounder, he is often looking to get his teammates going.
Perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate center Rudy Gobert occupying the roamer role for Minnesota will make things all the more difficult for Jokic's teammates around the basket.
Denver's Defense
Make no mistake that Denver also has a host of excellent defenders, with Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope worth highlighting.
The Nuggets have the defensive personnel to bother teams along the perimeter, but they'll also put bodies in front of the basket in order to collect rebounds and to limit inside scoring.
Takeaway
This will be a high-level defensive affair in which both teams struggle to sniff 100.
Both teams have so many good defenders to match up against the other offense with, and both teams are also so well-coached.
Denver's three-point shooting is going to make the difference as the defending champion Nuggets continue to find a way to start their series off 1-0.
Best Bet: Parlay Nuggets ML at -180 & Under 209 at -105 at +204 odds with Bovada
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, May 5, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Free Throw Shooting
Orlando won Game 6 but did so in ways that will not repeat themselves.
The Magic won only by seven despite making 17 more free throws.
This free throw disparity is ridiculous.
It was also unfair, as the Cavaliers attacked a lot inside and were not rightly rewarded for their aggressiveness. A lot of close contact calls did not go their way.
One must expect the foul game to shift in Cleveland's favor at home, especially given its aggressive style of play.
Jalen Suggs and Company
Something else that won't sustain itself for Orlando is the success of Jalen Suggs.
Suggs helped the Magic win Game 6, but that game took place in Orlando, whereas Game 7 is in Cleveland.
In three games in Orlando, Suggs shot 81.1 percent, 57.1 percent, and 43.8 percent from the floor, respectively.
Conversely, in Cleveland, he has shot 25 percent, 40 percent off only five attempts, and 35.7 percent.
His non-existence in Cleveland will be decisive.
Paolo Banchero's masterclass performance bailed out Orlando, from an ATS perspective, in Game 5, but the Cavaliers, partly due to a different starting lineup, were more prepared for him in Game 6.
Evan Mobley
Cleveland hung within seven points of Orlando in Game 6 despite getting almost nothing from Evan Mobley.
Jarrett Allen's absence is likely hurting Mobley, who has to occupy the five without him. It would help if Allen plays, but Mobley has been so good in Cleveland that Allen's absence won't matter – Gary Harris for Orlando is anyhow also injured.
Three-Point Shooting
Moreover, the three-point shooting will tip in Cleveland's favor when the game moves to Cleveland.
Whereas Orlando has been awful in Cleveland and overall from behind the arc, the Cavs experience a significant statistical uptick – almost three percentage points on the season – in three-point shooting percentage when they move home.
Coaching
In Game 5 in Cleveland, Cleveland's coaching staff was much more creative. The in-game adjustments were strong and the offense was at its best.
Expect a similar effort in Game 7 after what was a lackluster coaching effort in Game 6 in Orlando.
Cleveland's gameplan was horribly predictable: Donovan Mitchell drove inside again and again.
While his determination to drive inside underscores an important point of vulnerability in Orlando's defense, the Magic became too well prepared for it, allowing them to win the fourth quarter and consequently the game.
Role players often get a big boost at home, so expect Mitchell's supporting cast to step up. Cleveland will find a way to get them more involved offensively, which is something that it could and should have done a better job of doing in Game 6.
Just giving the ball more to Darius Garland, who has turned it on these last two games, for four quarters will do wonders.
Takeaway
Cleveland had a five-point lead heading into the fourth quarter in Game 6.
At home, the Cavaliers will cover the spread thanks to better three-point shooting, a stronger performance from Mobley along with a weaker one from Suggs, more free throws, more balanced offensive play, and their characteristically solid defense at home against an inefficient Magic offense.
All of these factors will amount to a powerful shift in the score line relative to Game 6.
Best Bet: Cavaliers -3.5 at -105 with BetOnline
