Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, October 1, 2021, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Wily Peralta
On the surface, Tiger starter Wily Peralta seems to be enjoying a fine season.
But his 3.08 ERA may give one a false impression because it is deflated by an unusually low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unusually high strand rate.
His 4.50 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) reflects more accurately his individual performances this season as a pitcher. This statistic reveals that he is not so intimidating as his ERA might suggest.
I find Peralta less likable also because his favorite pitch is an unreliable one for him.
He throws his sinker with 31-percent frequency and therefore more than any of his other pitches.
However, opponents hit .333 and slug .545 against it. While this pitch's velocity is not bad, he often leaves it in the middle parts of the plate, its movement is lower than average, and it shows minimal spin.It's simply a pretty flat pitch located poorly.
Peralta vs. White Sox Batters
There are four White Sox batters who have accumulated more than two at-bats against Peralta. All four -- Billy Hamilton, Leury Garcia, Jose Abreu, and Cesar Hernandez -- bat over .400 against him.
Moreover, Hamilton, Garcia, and Hernandez each slug over .600 against him.
You've likely heard of "momentum heading into the postseason." This is a real thing because how teams play generally reflects their current form in the moment.
Although the White Sox have already clinched their division, they are clearly still interested in winning regular season games. They want to preserve momentum in order to carry that into the postseason.
Therefore, they have won each of their last four games. Their lineup is playing a strong part in their current success as they scored five, eight, seven, and six runs, respectively, in those four games.
Lance Lynn
White Sox starter Lance Lynn is looking to bounce back after his last outing in which he conceded multiple home runs.
He is typically good at buckling down as he's allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his four starts directly following an outing in which the opponent hit multiple homers off him.
Moreover, his 2.92 xFIP(like FIP, but calculates how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed by accounting for how many fly balls he has allowed and for the league average ratio of home runs to fly balls) inspires confidence in his current form.
Lynn vs. Tiger Batters
In the one start where Lynn failed to bounce back, he faced a high-level Astro lineup.
Ranking 20 spots behind Houston in runs per game, Detroit poses a much softer test.
Plus, Tiger batters historically struggle against Lynn. In 92 career at-bats against him, they hit .196 and slug .250.
Miguel Cabrera, for example, is 2-for-14 (.143) with seven strikeouts facing Flynn.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Jose Suarez
Similar to his first professional season, Angel starter Jose Suarez is limping across the finish line.
In his last two outings, he has allowed seven earned runs in a combined total of 10.2 innings.
His history against Seattle batters does not suggest a stronger outcome for him tonight.
They have accumulated 64 at-bats against him and hit .281 and slug .531 in those at-bats.
Kyle Seager, for example, is 3-for-9 (.333) with two doubles and a homer with Suarez on the mound.
Marco Gonzales
Mariner starter Marco Gonzales has won each of his last nine decisions.
More recently, he is consistently lasting longer because of his quality in games.
He has allowed two runs or fewer in both of his last starts.
One should expect more success against Angel batters, who hit .177 and slug .396 in 96 at-bats against him.
The Verdict
The White Sox will continue their strong form and take advantage of a starting pitcher match-up clearly in their favor.
Later, Seattle will continue its good form -- the Mariners have won 10 of their last 11 -- by riding its pitching and lineup edges.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox RL at -135 & Mariners ML at -160 at +183 odds with BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, October 1, 2021, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Wily Peralta
On the surface, Tiger starter Wily Peralta seems to be enjoying a fine season.
But his 3.08 ERA may give one a false impression because it is deflated by an unusually low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and an unusually high strand rate.
His 4.50 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) reflects more accurately his individual performances this season as a pitcher. This statistic reveals that he is not so intimidating as his ERA might suggest.
I find Peralta less likable also because his favorite pitch is an unreliable one for him.
He throws his sinker with 31-percent frequency and therefore more than any of his other pitches.
However, opponents hit .333 and slug .545 against it. While this pitch's velocity is not bad, he often leaves it in the middle parts of the plate, its movement is lower than average, and it shows minimal spin.It's simply a pretty flat pitch located poorly.
Peralta vs. White Sox Batters
There are four White Sox batters who have accumulated more than two at-bats against Peralta. All four -- Billy Hamilton, Leury Garcia, Jose Abreu, and Cesar Hernandez -- bat over .400 against him.
Moreover, Hamilton, Garcia, and Hernandez each slug over .600 against him.
You've likely heard of "momentum heading into the postseason." This is a real thing because how teams play generally reflects their current form in the moment.
Although the White Sox have already clinched their division, they are clearly still interested in winning regular season games. They want to preserve momentum in order to carry that into the postseason.
Therefore, they have won each of their last four games. Their lineup is playing a strong part in their current success as they scored five, eight, seven, and six runs, respectively, in those four games.
Lance Lynn
White Sox starter Lance Lynn is looking to bounce back after his last outing in which he conceded multiple home runs.
He is typically good at buckling down as he's allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his four starts directly following an outing in which the opponent hit multiple homers off him.
Moreover, his 2.92 xFIP(like FIP, but calculates how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed by accounting for how many fly balls he has allowed and for the league average ratio of home runs to fly balls) inspires confidence in his current form.
Lynn vs. Tiger Batters
In the one start where Lynn failed to bounce back, he faced a high-level Astro lineup.
Ranking 20 spots behind Houston in runs per game, Detroit poses a much softer test.
Plus, Tiger batters historically struggle against Lynn. In 92 career at-bats against him, they hit .196 and slug .250.
Miguel Cabrera, for example, is 2-for-14 (.143) with seven strikeouts facing Flynn.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, October 1, 2021 at 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Jose Suarez
Similar to his first professional season, Angel starter Jose Suarez is limping across the finish line.
In his last two outings, he has allowed seven earned runs in a combined total of 10.2 innings.
His history against Seattle batters does not suggest a stronger outcome for him tonight.
They have accumulated 64 at-bats against him and hit .281 and slug .531 in those at-bats.
Kyle Seager, for example, is 3-for-9 (.333) with two doubles and a homer with Suarez on the mound.
Marco Gonzales
Mariner starter Marco Gonzales has won each of his last nine decisions.
More recently, he is consistently lasting longer because of his quality in games.
He has allowed two runs or fewer in both of his last starts.
One should expect more success against Angel batters, who hit .177 and slug .396 in 96 at-bats against him.
The Verdict
The White Sox will continue their strong form and take advantage of a starting pitcher match-up clearly in their favor.
Later, Seattle will continue its good form -- the Mariners have won 10 of their last 11 -- by riding its pitching and lineup edges.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox RL at -135 & Mariners ML at -160 at +183 odds with BetOnline
