Yankees Open Doubleheader as Deserving Favorites in Detroit
The Yanks and Tigers begin a doubleheader on Monday at 1:10 ET. Bettors should expect the Yankees to perform strongly in the opener from start to finish.
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
MLB Pick: Yankees 1H RL
Bettors should have no real doubts about the Yankees today. If the 1H RL is too chalky, the Yanks own the second-best bullpen in terms of FIP while Detroit’s is below-average, so the FG RL should also hit.
Yankee Luis Severino (8-1, 2.31 ERA) is a moneymaker for bettors. New York is 11-0 when favored in his starts and is yielding +10 units in his games.
The young flamethrower is improving, having dropped his FIP 1.79 from last season. He’s brought greater variety into his first-pitch selection and throws his first pitch for a strike with five percent higher frequency. Also, he’s reduced his opposing home run rate by making fewer mistakes.
His fastball is his most frequent pitch. He relies on it most in all situations except to finish batters off and has reduced opposing slugging against it from .438 last season to .365 this season. He's upped its velocity so that it averages 98 mph, which he at least maintains throughout his innings pitched. Severino matches up well with Detroit as a flamethrower. In the past two weeks, the Tigers rank 26th, slugging .205 against the 95-100 mph four-seamer.
He’s also limited opposing slugging against his slider, which is his second-most important pitch, which he’s utilizing more frequently in all counts, especially against lefties. Its his favorite weapon to finish batters with. It has a higher whiff percentage primarily because of how he combines good location with strong velocity. With his slider, he's more frequently pinpointing the corners of the strike zone and avoiding the heart of the plate. The Tigers slug below-average on the season against the slider averaging 85-90 mph. In the past two weeks against the slider, they rank 23rd, 20th against righties.
In two starts since 2016, Severino has a sub-3 career FIP in Detroit. He’s allowed two runs in his past 11.2 innings against Detroit since 2017. The Tigers have been fortunate to face more southpaws lately, who they have way strong numbers against. But they’re yielding -30.6 units against right-handed starters. Conversely, the Yanks are 10-1 against the AL Central and 14-4 in day games. They’re 8-3 since 2015 in Comerica, with the run line having hit in six of those wins.
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Mike Fiers (4-3, 4.45 ERA) doesn’t have much to offer for Detroit. His most frequent pitch, which he relies on most in all situations, is the fastball, which is getting slammed. Despite its uptick in velocity, opponents are slugging .560 in May, compared to .294 in April, against his fastball. In his best performance, his only shutout, his opponent slugged under .100 against it. But in the past two weeks the Yanks rank first, slugging .696, against the low-velo fastball averaging 87-92 mph. They could see the curve, cutter, sinker and change in relatively higher numbers as in the first match-up. But they rank third in slugging combined against these pitches, sixth in the past two weeks, and had no problem with them in the first match-up in April, Fiers’ stronger month, when they produced five earned runs against him in 5.2 innings.
Fiers is struggling with consistency, having been slammed after both starts in which he yielded one or zero runs. He has faced the same opponent twice two times and each time the opposing lineup, more familiar with his variety of pitches, produced at least three more runs against him in the re-match. Overall, Fiers showed worse command and surrendered more homers in May. He’s especially getting torched by lefties, but righties hit well against him as well. Aaron Hicks, for example, is 3-for-5 with two homers against him. Aaron Judge is 3-for-8 with a double and a homer.
The Yanks and Tigers begin a doubleheader on Monday at 1:10 ET. Bettors should expect the Yankees to perform strongly in the opener from start to finish.
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
MLB Pick: Yankees 1H RL
Bettors should have no real doubts about the Yankees today. If the 1H RL is too chalky, the Yanks own the second-best bullpen in terms of FIP while Detroit’s is below-average, so the FG RL should also hit.
Yankee Luis Severino (8-1, 2.31 ERA) is a moneymaker for bettors. New York is 11-0 when favored in his starts and is yielding +10 units in his games.
The young flamethrower is improving, having dropped his FIP 1.79 from last season. He’s brought greater variety into his first-pitch selection and throws his first pitch for a strike with five percent higher frequency. Also, he’s reduced his opposing home run rate by making fewer mistakes.
His fastball is his most frequent pitch. He relies on it most in all situations except to finish batters off and has reduced opposing slugging against it from .438 last season to .365 this season. He's upped its velocity so that it averages 98 mph, which he at least maintains throughout his innings pitched. Severino matches up well with Detroit as a flamethrower. In the past two weeks, the Tigers rank 26th, slugging .205 against the 95-100 mph four-seamer.
He’s also limited opposing slugging against his slider, which is his second-most important pitch, which he’s utilizing more frequently in all counts, especially against lefties. Its his favorite weapon to finish batters with. It has a higher whiff percentage primarily because of how he combines good location with strong velocity. With his slider, he's more frequently pinpointing the corners of the strike zone and avoiding the heart of the plate. The Tigers slug below-average on the season against the slider averaging 85-90 mph. In the past two weeks against the slider, they rank 23rd, 20th against righties.
In two starts since 2016, Severino has a sub-3 career FIP in Detroit. He’s allowed two runs in his past 11.2 innings against Detroit since 2017. The Tigers have been fortunate to face more southpaws lately, who they have way strong numbers against. But they’re yielding -30.6 units against right-handed starters. Conversely, the Yanks are 10-1 against the AL Central and 14-4 in day games. They’re 8-3 since 2015 in Comerica, with the run line having hit in six of those wins.
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Mike Fiers (4-3, 4.45 ERA) doesn’t have much to offer for Detroit. His most frequent pitch, which he relies on most in all situations, is the fastball, which is getting slammed. Despite its uptick in velocity, opponents are slugging .560 in May, compared to .294 in April, against his fastball. In his best performance, his only shutout, his opponent slugged under .100 against it. But in the past two weeks the Yanks rank first, slugging .696, against the low-velo fastball averaging 87-92 mph. They could see the curve, cutter, sinker and change in relatively higher numbers as in the first match-up. But they rank third in slugging combined against these pitches, sixth in the past two weeks, and had no problem with them in the first match-up in April, Fiers’ stronger month, when they produced five earned runs against him in 5.2 innings.
Fiers is struggling with consistency, having been slammed after both starts in which he yielded one or zero runs. He has faced the same opponent twice two times and each time the opposing lineup, more familiar with his variety of pitches, produced at least three more runs against him in the re-match. Overall, Fiers showed worse command and surrendered more homers in May. He’s especially getting torched by lefties, but righties hit well against him as well. Aaron Hicks, for example, is 3-for-5 with two homers against him. Aaron Judge is 3-for-8 with a double and a homer.
