Yankees Are Deserving Favorites in Both Games of Doubleheader in Detroit
The Yanks and Tigers begin a doubleheader on Monday at 1:10 ET and conclude it at 7:10 ET. Bettors should expect the Yankees to perform strongly from start to finish while the Tigers lineup will come alive in Game 2.
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Game 1: Yankees 1H RL
Game 2: 1H „Over“
Bettors should have no real doubts about the Yankees today. If the 1H RL is too chalky, the Yanks own the second-best bullpen in terms of FIP while Detroit’s is below-average, so the FG RL should also hit.
Yankee Luis Severino (8-1, 2.31 ERA) is a moneymaker for bettors. New York is 11-0 when favored in his starts and is yielding +10 units in his games.
The young flamethrower is improving, having dropped his FIP 1.79 from last season. He’s brought greater variety into his first-pitch selection and throws his first pitch for a strike with five percent higher frequency. Also, he’s reduced his opposing home run rate by making fewer mistakes.
His fastball is his most frequent pitch. He relies on it most in all situations except to finish batters off and has reduced opposing slugging against it from .438 last season to .365 this season. He's upped its velocity so that it averages 98 mph, which he at least maintains throughout his innings pitched. Severino matches up well with Detroit as a flamethrower. In the past two weeks, the Tigers rank 26th, slugging .205 against the 95-100 mph four-seamer.
He’s also limited opposing slugging against his slider, which is his second-most important pitch, which he’s utilizing more frequently in all counts, especially against lefties. Its his favorite weapon to finish batters with. It has a higher whiff percentage primarily because of how he combines good location with strong velocity. With his slider, he's more frequently pinpointing the corners of the strike zone and avoiding the heart of the plate. The Tigers slug below-average on the season against the slider averaging 85-90 mph. In the past two weeks against the slider, they rank 23rd, 20th against righties.
In two starts since 2016, Severino has a sub-3 career FIP in Detroit. He’s allowed two runs in his past 11.2 innings against Detroit since 2017. The Tigers have been fortunate to face more southpaws lately, who they have way strong numbers against. But last season they yielded -30.6 units against right-handed starters. Conversely, the Yanks are 10-1 against the AL Central and 14-4 in day games. They’re 8-3 since 2015 in Comerica, with the run line having hit in six of those wins.
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Drew VerHagen (0-1, 6.30 ERA) has been recalled from Triple A to counter Severino. Detroit is relying on him rather out of necessity due to injuries in their rotation than by choice. He’s repeatedly bounced back and forth from the minors to the majors, but only has three career professional starts. His previous start came last August, when he gave up six runs in 3.2 innings. Typically a reliever, his last multi-inning match-up with the Yanks came in 2017, surrendering two runs in 2.1 innings. VerHagen relies primarily on a sinker-slider combo, but also mixes in other pitches with the chief aim of inducing ground balls by locating them low in the strike zone. Last year, for instance, his ground ball percentage was 50.5 and in Triple A it is 48.1. But so far in 2018 in the majors, his ground ball percentage has dropped to 41.7% while his fly ball percentage has risen to 54.2% because he’s allowing unwanted elevation against his pitches. He’s having trouble locating his pitches effectively, which is also why he’s yielding 6.30 walks per nine innings. He’s allowing 41.7% hard contact and, among 498 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 pitches this season, he’s allowing the 18th-highest average exit velocity because hitters are slamming his stuff.
In VerHagen, the Yanks are essentially facing a minor-leaguer making an emergency start. They won’t have any problem securing Severino the lead through five innings.
Domingo German (0-3, 5.45 ERA) starts Game two for the Yanks. German bounced back from two tough outings in a row to last almost six innings against Houston. Despite pitching well, he couldn’t avoid making that one mistake. So he’s now allowed a homer in three consecutive starts. As a second-year starter, it’s hard to expect him to have a mistake-free outing. This season, he’s allowing 1.56 homers per nine innings. Even if he doesn’t allow a homer, his location has been consistently poor. Take his curveball for example. In his last eight outings, the curveball was German’s most frequent pitch. He relies on it most in all situations and it is of fundamental importance for him. In his two worst starts, his respective opponent batted over .300 against this pitch. In his stronger starts, they hit under .250 against it. When he no-hit the Indians through six innings on May 6, German successfully located his curveball down in the zone, away from the more dangerous parts of the strike zone. There were three spots in the lowest quadrant of the zone in which he placed his curve over 11% of the time. In his starts since that date, there is only one such spot. Conversely, there are four spots in the three middle rows of the zone where he’s locating his curve over 6% of the time. He’s throwing his curve with 8% frequency down the heart of the plate whereas he did that only 2% of the time against Cleveland. Consequently, German’s curve is getting slammed by teams who don’t even rank as highly in Detroit in slugging against the curveball. He limited Houston to three runs, which still isn’t a good result, but the inexperienced kid has yet to show the consistent ability as a starter (or as a reliever, for that matter) to locate his most important pitch well. When the Tigers slam his curveball, German will be done for. Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera are all slugging .500 or better against the curve thrown by righties.
Mike Fiers (4-3, 4.45 ERA) doesn’t have much to offer for Detroit. His most frequent pitch, which he relies on most in all situations, is the fastball, which is getting slammed. Despite its uptick in velocity, opponents are slugging .560 in May, compared to .294 in April, against his fastball. In his best performance, his only shutout, his opponent slugged under .100 against it. But in the past two weeks the Yanks rank first, slugging .696, against the low-velo fastball averaging 87-92 mph. They could see the curve, cutter, sinker and change in relatively higher numbers as in the first match-up. But they rank third in slugging combined against these pitches, sixth in the past two weeks, and had no problem with them in the first match-up in April, Fiers’ stronger month, when they produced five earned runs against him in 5.2 innings.
Fiers is struggling with consistency, having been slammed after both starts in which he yielded one or zero runs. He has faced the same opponent twice two times and each time the opposing lineup, more familiar with his variety of pitches, produced at least three more runs against him in the re-match. Overall, Fiers showed worse command and surrendered more homers in May. He’s especially getting torched by lefties, but righties hit well against him as well. Aaron Hicks, for example, is 3-for-5 with two homers against him. Aaron Judge is 3-for-8 with a double and a homer.
Both lineups should succeed against each respective pitcher. Because both pitchers should be equally bad, Detroit has nice underdog value, if you’re looking to play a side.
The Yanks and Tigers begin a doubleheader on Monday at 1:10 ET and conclude it at 7:10 ET. Bettors should expect the Yankees to perform strongly from start to finish while the Tigers lineup will come alive in Game 2.
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Game 1: Yankees 1H RL
Game 2: 1H „Over“
Bettors should have no real doubts about the Yankees today. If the 1H RL is too chalky, the Yanks own the second-best bullpen in terms of FIP while Detroit’s is below-average, so the FG RL should also hit.
Yankee Luis Severino (8-1, 2.31 ERA) is a moneymaker for bettors. New York is 11-0 when favored in his starts and is yielding +10 units in his games.
The young flamethrower is improving, having dropped his FIP 1.79 from last season. He’s brought greater variety into his first-pitch selection and throws his first pitch for a strike with five percent higher frequency. Also, he’s reduced his opposing home run rate by making fewer mistakes.
His fastball is his most frequent pitch. He relies on it most in all situations except to finish batters off and has reduced opposing slugging against it from .438 last season to .365 this season. He's upped its velocity so that it averages 98 mph, which he at least maintains throughout his innings pitched. Severino matches up well with Detroit as a flamethrower. In the past two weeks, the Tigers rank 26th, slugging .205 against the 95-100 mph four-seamer.
He’s also limited opposing slugging against his slider, which is his second-most important pitch, which he’s utilizing more frequently in all counts, especially against lefties. Its his favorite weapon to finish batters with. It has a higher whiff percentage primarily because of how he combines good location with strong velocity. With his slider, he's more frequently pinpointing the corners of the strike zone and avoiding the heart of the plate. The Tigers slug below-average on the season against the slider averaging 85-90 mph. In the past two weeks against the slider, they rank 23rd, 20th against righties.
In two starts since 2016, Severino has a sub-3 career FIP in Detroit. He’s allowed two runs in his past 11.2 innings against Detroit since 2017. The Tigers have been fortunate to face more southpaws lately, who they have way strong numbers against. But last season they yielded -30.6 units against right-handed starters. Conversely, the Yanks are 10-1 against the AL Central and 14-4 in day games. They’re 8-3 since 2015 in Comerica, with the run line having hit in six of those wins.
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Drew VerHagen (0-1, 6.30 ERA) has been recalled from Triple A to counter Severino. Detroit is relying on him rather out of necessity due to injuries in their rotation than by choice. He’s repeatedly bounced back and forth from the minors to the majors, but only has three career professional starts. His previous start came last August, when he gave up six runs in 3.2 innings. Typically a reliever, his last multi-inning match-up with the Yanks came in 2017, surrendering two runs in 2.1 innings. VerHagen relies primarily on a sinker-slider combo, but also mixes in other pitches with the chief aim of inducing ground balls by locating them low in the strike zone. Last year, for instance, his ground ball percentage was 50.5 and in Triple A it is 48.1. But so far in 2018 in the majors, his ground ball percentage has dropped to 41.7% while his fly ball percentage has risen to 54.2% because he’s allowing unwanted elevation against his pitches. He’s having trouble locating his pitches effectively, which is also why he’s yielding 6.30 walks per nine innings. He’s allowing 41.7% hard contact and, among 498 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 pitches this season, he’s allowing the 18th-highest average exit velocity because hitters are slamming his stuff.
In VerHagen, the Yanks are essentially facing a minor-leaguer making an emergency start. They won’t have any problem securing Severino the lead through five innings.
Domingo German (0-3, 5.45 ERA) starts Game two for the Yanks. German bounced back from two tough outings in a row to last almost six innings against Houston. Despite pitching well, he couldn’t avoid making that one mistake. So he’s now allowed a homer in three consecutive starts. As a second-year starter, it’s hard to expect him to have a mistake-free outing. This season, he’s allowing 1.56 homers per nine innings. Even if he doesn’t allow a homer, his location has been consistently poor. Take his curveball for example. In his last eight outings, the curveball was German’s most frequent pitch. He relies on it most in all situations and it is of fundamental importance for him. In his two worst starts, his respective opponent batted over .300 against this pitch. In his stronger starts, they hit under .250 against it. When he no-hit the Indians through six innings on May 6, German successfully located his curveball down in the zone, away from the more dangerous parts of the strike zone. There were three spots in the lowest quadrant of the zone in which he placed his curve over 11% of the time. In his starts since that date, there is only one such spot. Conversely, there are four spots in the three middle rows of the zone where he’s locating his curve over 6% of the time. He’s throwing his curve with 8% frequency down the heart of the plate whereas he did that only 2% of the time against Cleveland. Consequently, German’s curve is getting slammed by teams who don’t even rank as highly in Detroit in slugging against the curveball. He limited Houston to three runs, which still isn’t a good result, but the inexperienced kid has yet to show the consistent ability as a starter (or as a reliever, for that matter) to locate his most important pitch well. When the Tigers slam his curveball, German will be done for. Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera are all slugging .500 or better against the curve thrown by righties.
Mike Fiers (4-3, 4.45 ERA) doesn’t have much to offer for Detroit. His most frequent pitch, which he relies on most in all situations, is the fastball, which is getting slammed. Despite its uptick in velocity, opponents are slugging .560 in May, compared to .294 in April, against his fastball. In his best performance, his only shutout, his opponent slugged under .100 against it. But in the past two weeks the Yanks rank first, slugging .696, against the low-velo fastball averaging 87-92 mph. They could see the curve, cutter, sinker and change in relatively higher numbers as in the first match-up. But they rank third in slugging combined against these pitches, sixth in the past two weeks, and had no problem with them in the first match-up in April, Fiers’ stronger month, when they produced five earned runs against him in 5.2 innings.
Fiers is struggling with consistency, having been slammed after both starts in which he yielded one or zero runs. He has faced the same opponent twice two times and each time the opposing lineup, more familiar with his variety of pitches, produced at least three more runs against him in the re-match. Overall, Fiers showed worse command and surrendered more homers in May. He’s especially getting torched by lefties, but righties hit well against him as well. Aaron Hicks, for example, is 3-for-5 with two homers against him. Aaron Judge is 3-for-8 with a double and a homer.
Both lineups should succeed against each respective pitcher. Because both pitchers should be equally bad, Detroit has nice underdog value, if you’re looking to play a side.
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Just a matter of proofreading correctly here
lol. He was just recalled from triple A
