MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions: Best Bets Of The Day
Tigers vs Indians
Wednesday, September 18 2019 at Progressive Field
Cleveland’s Aaron Civale (3-3, 1.93 ERA) continues his reliable streak, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in all eight of his starts this season.
Civale’s success has been most apparent against division rivals. Cleveland is 4-1 when he starts against AL Central opponents, yielding +3.4 units. The one loss came against fellow AL Central powerhouse Minnesota.
He’s been so successful because of the wealth of tools that he can employ. Civale boasts three different pitches, a sinker, cutter, and slider, that he throws with between 15 and 36 percent frequency.
His sinker is his most frequent and second-least effective pitch, yielding a .219 opposing BA. Opponents hit .245 against his cutter, although three of his last four opponents hit under .200 against it. His slider yields a .136 BA.
Unusual is his arsenal in multiple positive ways. His sinker boasts very strong arm-side movement that makes it more elusive.
His cutter’s three most frequent locations are along a border of the zone, which allows him to play with the batter’s perception of where this pitch will land. Civale’s slider barely touches the middle of the plate, instead nailing the lowest-right corner of the zone with 44 percent frequency.
Tiger batters have already fallen victim to Civale. In 37 career at-bats against him, they're batting .189 with a .297 slugging rate. Only two of the 11 Tigers with a history against him have managed an extra-base hit, Victor Reyes and Dawel Lugo.
Completely unlike Civale, Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull (3-15, 4.77 ERA) has been consistent as a punching bag. He’s allowed four earned runs or more in five consecutive outings.
Given his struggles, he’s the third-least profitable pitcher on a Tigers rotation that features many very unprofitable pitchers. He’s yielding -9.4 units, while also costing his backers eight units when he’s the underdog.
Turnbull doesn’t possess as much variety as Civale. He relies on a fastball with 44 percent frequency. This pitch is very vulnerable as he frequently leaves it over the more middle parts of the plate and it shows very little movement.
Indian batters love facing Turnbull. In 74 career at-bats, they hit .338 and slug .527 against him. Jason Kipnis, for example, is 4-for-12 (.333) with a double and two homers.
As a team, Cleveland regularly dominates Detroit. In the second half of the season alone, Cleveland has beaten Detroit eight consecutive times, with the run-line hitting each time.
Best Bet: Indians RL at -150 odds with 5Dimes
White Sox vs Twins
Wednesday, September 18 2019 at Target Field
Minnesota’s Jake Odorizzi (14-6, 3.60 ERA) is performing superbly on an individual level. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) has been 3.02 or lower in each of his last five starts.
This level of quality has helped make Odorizzi a reliable pitcher to bet on. The Twins have won seven of the last eight games in which he started and five of those wins were by multiple runs.
On the season, the Twins yield +11.9 units in his starts, +5.7 units at home, +6.1 units when he’s the favored pitcher, and +8.4 units in night games.
Tonight’s spot is also perfect for Odorizzi, who’s coming off a longer rest period. In his career, his win percentage and ERA are both at their best when he’s starting off at least six days’ rest.
The key to Odorizzi’s success has been his fastball. In the past two months, he’s steadily and significantly upped its usage. He clearly knew what he was doing as his fastball yielded a .213 opposing BA in August and a .191 opposing BA so far in September.
His newfound reliability with the fastball may derive from a mechanical alteration whereby he markedly adjusted his fastball’s average horizontal release point. He’s also precise with this pitch as three of its most frequent locations are along a border of the zone.
White Sox batters do not like to face Odorizzi. In 136 at-bats, they hit .213 and slug .265 against him. Ryan Goins, for example, is 2-for-22 (.091) with 10 strikeouts.
Chicago’s pitching situation faces dire straits. Dylan Covey, who’s a regular catastrophe on the mound, will not pitch due to shoulder surgery.
Instead, the White Sox will depend on Ivan Nova to start. Nova was scheduled to throw a bullpen session. Instead, he’ll pitch an inning against the Twins.
After Nova departs, Chicago will utilize its bullpen. Collectively, White Sox relievers rank 15th in ERA and their depth will be tested for seven innings tonight.
Minnesota’s lineup has been hot, which has contributed to the Twins winning four of their last five games. They’ve produced 28 runs in their past four games combined. Look out for Jorge Polanco, who’s hitting .333 with two doubles and two homers in his past seven days.
If this play is too chalky for you, I recommend parlaying it with the Indians RL.
Best Bet: Twins RL at -149 odds with Pinnacle
Tigers vs Indians
Wednesday, September 18 2019 at Progressive Field
Cleveland’s Aaron Civale (3-3, 1.93 ERA) continues his reliable streak, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in all eight of his starts this season.
Civale’s success has been most apparent against division rivals. Cleveland is 4-1 when he starts against AL Central opponents, yielding +3.4 units. The one loss came against fellow AL Central powerhouse Minnesota.
He’s been so successful because of the wealth of tools that he can employ. Civale boasts three different pitches, a sinker, cutter, and slider, that he throws with between 15 and 36 percent frequency.
His sinker is his most frequent and second-least effective pitch, yielding a .219 opposing BA. Opponents hit .245 against his cutter, although three of his last four opponents hit under .200 against it. His slider yields a .136 BA.
Unusual is his arsenal in multiple positive ways. His sinker boasts very strong arm-side movement that makes it more elusive.
His cutter’s three most frequent locations are along a border of the zone, which allows him to play with the batter’s perception of where this pitch will land. Civale’s slider barely touches the middle of the plate, instead nailing the lowest-right corner of the zone with 44 percent frequency.
Tiger batters have already fallen victim to Civale. In 37 career at-bats against him, they're batting .189 with a .297 slugging rate. Only two of the 11 Tigers with a history against him have managed an extra-base hit, Victor Reyes and Dawel Lugo.
Completely unlike Civale, Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull (3-15, 4.77 ERA) has been consistent as a punching bag. He’s allowed four earned runs or more in five consecutive outings.
Given his struggles, he’s the third-least profitable pitcher on a Tigers rotation that features many very unprofitable pitchers. He’s yielding -9.4 units, while also costing his backers eight units when he’s the underdog.
Turnbull doesn’t possess as much variety as Civale. He relies on a fastball with 44 percent frequency. This pitch is very vulnerable as he frequently leaves it over the more middle parts of the plate and it shows very little movement.
Indian batters love facing Turnbull. In 74 career at-bats, they hit .338 and slug .527 against him. Jason Kipnis, for example, is 4-for-12 (.333) with a double and two homers.
As a team, Cleveland regularly dominates Detroit. In the second half of the season alone, Cleveland has beaten Detroit eight consecutive times, with the run-line hitting each time.
Best Bet: Indians RL at -150 odds with 5Dimes
White Sox vs Twins
Wednesday, September 18 2019 at Target Field
Minnesota’s Jake Odorizzi (14-6, 3.60 ERA) is performing superbly on an individual level. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) has been 3.02 or lower in each of his last five starts.
This level of quality has helped make Odorizzi a reliable pitcher to bet on. The Twins have won seven of the last eight games in which he started and five of those wins were by multiple runs.
On the season, the Twins yield +11.9 units in his starts, +5.7 units at home, +6.1 units when he’s the favored pitcher, and +8.4 units in night games.
Tonight’s spot is also perfect for Odorizzi, who’s coming off a longer rest period. In his career, his win percentage and ERA are both at their best when he’s starting off at least six days’ rest.
The key to Odorizzi’s success has been his fastball. In the past two months, he’s steadily and significantly upped its usage. He clearly knew what he was doing as his fastball yielded a .213 opposing BA in August and a .191 opposing BA so far in September.
His newfound reliability with the fastball may derive from a mechanical alteration whereby he markedly adjusted his fastball’s average horizontal release point. He’s also precise with this pitch as three of its most frequent locations are along a border of the zone.
White Sox batters do not like to face Odorizzi. In 136 at-bats, they hit .213 and slug .265 against him. Ryan Goins, for example, is 2-for-22 (.091) with 10 strikeouts.
Chicago’s pitching situation faces dire straits. Dylan Covey, who’s a regular catastrophe on the mound, will not pitch due to shoulder surgery.
Instead, the White Sox will depend on Ivan Nova to start. Nova was scheduled to throw a bullpen session. Instead, he’ll pitch an inning against the Twins.
After Nova departs, Chicago will utilize its bullpen. Collectively, White Sox relievers rank 15th in ERA and their depth will be tested for seven innings tonight.
Minnesota’s lineup has been hot, which has contributed to the Twins winning four of their last five games. They’ve produced 28 runs in their past four games combined. Look out for Jorge Polanco, who’s hitting .333 with two doubles and two homers in his past seven days.
If this play is too chalky for you, I recommend parlaying it with the Indians RL.
Best Bet: Twins RL at -149 odds with Pinnacle
