tiempo post cinco de mayo beisbol

[RetroVK]

favorites 20-11 +6.93 units
dogs 18-28 - 14.23 units
overs 2-1 +0.90 units
unders 21-22 - 2.15 units
totals pushes : 3

overall -8.55 units


two unit recommendations

indians/bjays under 10.5 -115
astros/nats under 8.5
home runs -3
salami under 137.5
san farn - 107

one unit recommendations'





Basically been capping the last ten hours. Will be adding throughout the day.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

 

[VThokies]

Good luck VK....like the giants with you

 

[nawlins51]

GL VK. Still deating. I like the Rangers under a lot but it went to 7.5.Didn't expect that to happen

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

add

sf/cubbies under 8 -105 ( avg )

 

[RetroVK]

GL VK. Still deating. I like the Rangers under a lot but it went to 7.5.Didn't expect that to happen

8 might pop back up for you.

 

[nawlins51]

8 might pop back up for you.

I hope so. Its a hard pill to swallow already taking an 8 in a Ranger game.Oh my.

Might take a stab on that Tribe/Jays Under

 

[E.T.G.]

Kyle, Any concerns about Barksdale behind the plate. I like this under but his numbers this yr worry me

 

[E.T.G.]

Barksdale since the last 2 months of last yr including 2009 season is on a 15-4 Over run.

 

[chong297]

GL Kyle. I know you'll turn this ship around. Liking that under in the astros/nats game

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle, Any concerns about Barksdale behind the plate. I like this under but his numbers this yr worry me

definitely a concern though his longterm statistics look more neutral to me. That said , you have to be concerned with how he has umped to start the year if backing the under.

he was 10-10 o/u last year in games lined 8-9.

The nationals defense is also a major concern anytime you are backing an under where they are involved and given barksdale k/bb rate ,,,, have to think a lot of balls are put into play with oswalt and olsen on the hill.

However , the under angles are nice here.

oswalt current form is very solid
oswalt history vs nats bats is pretty impressive save dunn power.
olsen history vs astros bats is solid
olsen current form is good
early game following a high scoring night game
game 2 getaway day
cooler weather
bad astros lineup ( though hitting well recently )


have been burned before by not avoiding an umpire on an over run but i am going where the numbers lead me and i think they more than overcome any recent bias by barksdale. atleast i hope so. Atleast oswalt is a strike thrower too... not a big walks guy.

 

[Timh]

BOL Kyle.

 

[SF_capper]

GL VK. missed out on the early games. tailed you on side and total on the giants game

 

[Blue_Chip]

Tejas opened 8' bet to 8 and now 7' -- maybe value with the over if you can get plus money

feliz cinco de mayo, mi amigo

 

[nawlins51]

If we lose this Tribe/Jays under I quit and will wait till football.Fuck baseball.Fucking squares winning left and right.

Sorry VK I vented in your thread.

 

[RetroVK]

If we lose this Tribe/Jays under I quit and will wait till football.Fuck baseball.Fucking squares winning left and right.

Sorry VK I vented in your thread.

yup ,,, just lost it ... defense and bullpens are just terrible in majors right now. squares are making a killing every day on the overs and sharps who are capping well are making good coin.


bet two unders .. had all four starters pitch very well and the games are still over by the seventh inning.

would be interested to hear from longterm winners who are winning right now as to whether they have made an adjustment of some kind or if they are finding their normal methodology from past years is working.

 

[RetroVK]

add

seattle under 8 -110

 

[Zipstar81]

yup ,,, just lost it ... defense and bullpens are just terrible in majors right now. squares are making a killing every day on the overs and sharps who are capping well are making good coin.


bet two unders .. had all four starters pitch very well and the games are still over by the seventh inning.

would be interested to hear from longterm winners who are winning right now as to whether they have made an adjustment of some kind or if they are finding their normal methodology from past years is working.

Yea Ive started playing more overs simply because the bullpens have been so bad in the majors this year. I dont really remember them ever being this bad as a whole for the entire league but it seems like everyday there is at least 5 or 6 games where the pens are exploding for big runs..

 

[E.T.G.]

Kyle, what about taking bullpens out of the equation and playing more 5 inning games?

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle, what about taking bullpens out of the equation and playing more 5 inning games?

definitely ... often accounted for though. For me .. given my apparent inability to evaluate the bullpens at all it is a definite option. 10/17ths and 10/18ths of the game and usually just half of the posted run total. For me , it might be the way to start going.

problem i am having is to trust what has worked for a decade or what is burning my money over the last five weeks.

good call on barksdale too .. 11 walks already i think.

 

[RetroVK]

Yea Ive started playing more overs simply because the bullpens have been so bad in the majors this year. I dont really remember them ever being this bad as a whole for the entire league but it seems like everyday there is at least 5 or 6 games where the pens are exploding for big runs..

yeah , the pitching is really bad and maybe i havent given them enough credit for being that bad

 

[scarf31]

VK,

IMO it's a combination of horrible bullpens and an amazing number of VERY BAD managers. There are some complete douchebags making these pitching decisions. I cannot remember a time in MLB where there were more clueless managers than there are now.

And as far as the bullpens go......how bad are they? Last year the AVERAGE MLB bullpen ERA was 4.09.......

This year, the average pen ERA is 4.49 and there are 9 teams with an ERA of 5 or better......3 with an ERA of 6 or better and the Angels are at 7.40

But VK, I really think the horrid managing of these games is a factor. I'm not sure how to incorporate it into my capping, but guys like Acta and Girardi are fucking ass clowns out there.

 

[SF_capper]

how big did u go on the under?

 

[RetroVK]

i go big on every play

 

[RetroVK]

which makes for an unhappy guy at this point of the season.

 

[SF_capper]

I mean as far as 1 or 2 units

 

[RetroVK]

I mean as far as 1 or 2 units

all for two units so far today .. guess i got lazy in the adds.

 

[nawlins51]

fuck it VK. I am taking that Rangers under. Fuck it.Liked it from the get go.


MLB - Where Tee-Ball Starts Again

 

[RetroVK]

anmother bullpen f'ing up in chicago.....

 

[RetroVK]

sigh .. had a little on that under at 7.5 too unposted.

add

pirates -109
pirates under 9 -105
cardinals -124
marlins under 8 -120

one unit play under 10 -105 tigers

 

[nawlins51]

GL VK. Played the Yanks under 9.5

 

[nawlins51]

another mosse VK in the M's game.

 

[chong297]

unreal man..absolutely unreal

 

[RetroVK]

indians/bjays under 10.5 -115 ........... -2.30 units
astros/nats under 8.5 ....................- 2.20 units
home runs -3 ............................... - 2.20 units ( will fix if it somehow wins or voids counting it early )
salami under 137.5 ......................... - 2.20 units
san farn - 107 ............................... +2.00 units
sf/cubbies under 8 -105 ( avg ) ..........push -- actually had a position i lost on here too unposted.
seattle under 8 -110 ...................... -2.20 units
pirates -109 ................................. -2.18 units
pirates under 9 -105 ...................... -2.10 units
cardinals -124 ............................... -2.48 units
marlins under 8 -120 ....................... + 2.00 units

one unit play under 10 -105 tigers ....... +1.00 units

in the event the salamis change or the cards come back and win , i will come back and change as needed. REally just want to end the day so assuming those are all losses at this point .. wish rain had hit washington two innings earlier.\

going to be hard to recover from april/may. likely taking a break as i cant seem to win a bet and have to consider it because i am not capping well. I put in a good 15 hours of handicapping on this card ( several on the phone with another member here ) .. most i have ever done. it didnt pay off. For all my use of the word square i think i feel four corners forming on my head. could be the pot calling the kettle black at this point.

No excuses .... long term if you make good bets you win and if you make bad bets you lose ... over my short term run here ... i am making bad bets and deserve to lose. I also believe that the relief pitching , defense and managing have degraded to a level that i have not appropriately accounted for. That is my fault. In this business you get what you deserve ... results will regress to the mean over time .... which is another concern .... in sports betting our sample size is so small that determiing whether you have an actual edge is pretty hard. I think i do ( or possibly did ) have one but maybe i was just running good and now i am regressing to the mean.

When you are running badly , you have to suck it up and admit to yourself that you are losing because you are making bad bets.

I can assure you i put in the time and effort and while i dont apologize for sharing my opinion ( thats what we do here ) , i do feel bad for anyone who has been riding me during this run.

favorites 21-14 +2.07 units
dogs 18-28 - 14.23 units
overs 2-1 +0.90 units
unders 23-27 - 10.15 units
totals pushes : 4

overall -21.41 units

 

[nawlins51]

VK I feel you. Watched my Yankees bet go to shit by piss poor managing. Watching my Whitesox Ml go to shit. Watching everything go to shit. Unfucking believable. This is brutal. I have experuence some bad runs but not like this. 0-4 yesterday with mooses. Today 0-5 with more mooses. Counting the Sox and Cards a Loss. Might as well. Maybe I should fade myself. So 0-9 in 2 days. Squares are winning left and right. Might jump on the wagon or quit till football. Don't know what i am going to do.