Thursday's NBA Plays...

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Record goes here.

1-0 last night.

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs


The play...

Spurs -14.5 (2 units)

:popcorn:
 
The heavy chalk hasn't been kind of late but the numbers call for a play here.

Big 'look-a-head' for the Lakers and the Spurs off a straight-up home loss.

Anticipating a beatdown with no 4th quarter fuckery.
 
Pistons a potential 'Pareto' play.

'Pareto's' on an 11-0 ATS run since I started tracking them, fyi.
 
Would you mind explaining this a bit? Thanks.

The 80-20 rule.

The Pareto principle is a principle, named after economist Vilfredo Pareto,

that specifies an unequal relationship between inputs and outputs.

The principle states that 20% of the invested input is responsible for 80% of the results obtained.

Basically giving a specific fade play a fancy name with this well used business principle.

20% on one side, 80% on the other. The 20% equals the result.
 
As for tonight's play,

The Lakers are 3-20-1 ATS since the 13 April, 2010 in games if they are playing the Clippers the following game.

0-5-1 ATS in this spot if getting 10+ points losing by an average margin of 20.1 points.
 
Like the over. You may easily be right about the side but 5-15-1 ATS last 21 on Thursday worries me
 
As for tonight's play,

The Lakers are 3-20-1 ATS since the 13 April, 2010 in games if they are playing the Clippers the following game.

0-5-1 ATS in this spot if getting 10+ points losing by an average margin of 20.1 points.
When were these examples
 
Like the over. You may easily be right about the side but 5-15-1 ATS last 21 on Thursday worries me

Last time the Spurs played on a Thursday at home off a loss was 29 May, 2014. They won by 28.

Just saying different circumstances, Spurs played some of their worst defense of the season in the most recent loss to the Bucks.

Pops should have lit a fire.
 
Spurs blog estimated a 9 point win. Last game they estimated a 13 point win and lost. Played the over and need to think
 
Spurs blog estimated a 9 point win. Last game they estimated a 13 point win and lost. Played the over and need to think

Pounding the Rock is routinely wrong with their score predictions as most bloggers are.
 
Like the spot but hate the line. Good luck with it.

As for the 'Pareto plays', I used to work for a company where 'the 80/20 Principle' was required reading for all employees. Then I watched as it was continually misapplied day in and day out.

Just so I understand, when you say 20% on one side and 80% on the other, are you referring to bet counts?
 
Like the spot but hate the line. Good luck with it.

As for the 'Pareto plays', I used to work for a company where 'the 80/20 Principle' was required reading for all employees. Then I watched as it was continually misapplied day in and day out.

Just so I understand, when you say 20% on one side and 80% on the other, are you referring to bet counts?

Basically, yeah.

Example from last night...

[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody" style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[TR="class: row-4"]
[TD="class: team"]86

102FINAL


709 Cleveland Cavaliers
710 Portland Trail Blazers

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]81%
19%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Obviously I've used it loosely in this instance. Playing on the 80/20 aspect.

So far the 20% is on a 11-0 ATS run, probably better than that but that's where it's at since I started tracking.

Back in the 'Blankets' days we called them 'Cut Plays' where a poster 'AnnaFan' used them religiously until they started shitting the bed.
 
Line outlook is -15 for the Spurs, taking into account all factors.

So the 14 on offer is fair.

Win or lose is not a bad nor 'square' bet.
 
Has to close on 80+ % though.

I've heard this before but never tracked it mainly because it's cash that really counts IMO. EX: The Packers this week have 79% of the tickets But the Cowboys have more money on them. Also to add the line has gone up a tick on the Cowboys. Not knocking anything because whatever gets you to the winners circle is all that matters and everything usually works for a time. The smart person knows when to get off and go the other way or stay away completely. Just curious where do you get your %'s
 
I've heard this before but never tracked it mainly because it's cash that really counts IMO. EX: The Packers this week have 79% of the tickets But the Cowboys have more money on them. Also to add the line has gone up a tick on the Cowboys. Not knocking anything because whatever gets you to the winners circle is all that matters and everything usually works for a time. The smart person knows when to get off and go the other way or stay away completely. Just curious where do you get your %'s

SportsInsights.

Fading the public worked great in the early internet years, then it went to crap for the most part.

Right now it's having a revival in the NBA mainly due to the Cavs and Dubs. They are responsible for the majority of this streak.

It has never really worked in the playoffs btw across all codes. Limited games and the best team usually wins, %'s mean nada.
 
Haven't played any just tracking for interest. Last 2 were both on the Cavs (Jazz and Blazers).
 
Thanks very much for your quick reply and best of luck with the Spurs tonight. Lets bring it home!
Mostly Cavs and Dubs makes sense. I ask because there was a time I would look at 65% or more with the line going the other way as with the Boys this week. As gamblers we're always looking for something and they do work for a time. Just like the Casino Business all the systems that people come in with will work at some point.The downside for those people is thinking they found the Holy Grail.

Good talking to you.
 
Obviously I've used it loosely in this instance. Playing on the 80/20 aspect.

So far the 20% is on a 11-0 ATS run, probably better than that but that's where it's at since I started tracking.

Back in the 'Blankets' days we called them 'Cut Plays' where a poster 'AnnaFan' used them religiously until they started shitting the bed.

Very old school there...back in my first days on sports forums...
 
SportsInsights.

Fading the public worked great in the early internet years, then it went to crap for the most part.


Right now it's having a revival in the NBA mainly due to the Cavs and Dubs. They are responsible for the majority of this streak.

It has never really worked in the playoffs btw across all codes. Limited games and the best team usually wins, %'s mean nada.

R.I.P. tru

;)
 
The 80-20 rule.

The Pareto principle is a principle, named after economist Vilfredo Pareto,

that specifies an unequal relationship between inputs and outputs.

The principle states that 20% of the invested input is responsible for 80% of the results obtained.

Basically giving a specific fade play a fancy name with this well used business principle.

20% on one side, 80% on the other. The 20% equals the result.

Thanks, I knew what the Pareto principle was but not how to apply it in this instance. Nice win with Spurs.
 
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