Thursday's NBA Plays...

[emkee]

3-2 (+1.72)

Trialing a few new things here and there. Got the win last night.

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets

The play...

Rockets ML -167 (2.5 to win 1.5)

Eating chalk. Will lay an NBA ML occasionally at anything under -200.

System says the ML in this situation cashes at a 75.8% clip as opposed to the spread which cashes at just over 50% (1336 games sampled).

15-5 SU last 20 in this spot (4-1 SU this season).

:shake:

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Good Luck and thanks for the information.:cheers3:

 

[B.A.R.]

:cheers3:

 

[emkee]

Thanks fellas.

Spurs also 0-5 SU and ATS last 5 as an away dog off a home fave win on zero days rest (0-1 SU and ATS last season. 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS in this spot since 2004).

Do hate it when the Spurs rest their starters, works out for them more than it doesn't as it causes the other team to lose a little focus and ease up a bit.

 

[Eric8923]

Good Luck. Considered tailing, but the ML is too high now. -270. I'm also not comfortable laying 6 1/2 points to the Spurs.

 

[emkee]

Yeah, ML as it is now would have been too steep for me also. Still a relatively strong play regardless. Unusual for Pops to rest multiple guys so early though, normally he waits until the 2nd or 3rd month into the season before going into minute management mode. Imo, he figured his team isn't playing too well right now and he saw this game as a loss either way so in spite of everything gave a few of his guys the night off.

Fact Leonard and Frenchie are in for SA should keep the Rox focused. Harden looks locked in on both ends of the court and Ariza has slotted in perfectly - huge upgrade from Parsons, great early signs for Houston. Now all they need is a coach so they can go next level.

 

[hugh613]

Think Ginobli being out might actually work to the Spurs advantage, but still tough to imagine the Rockets not winning this game (who's going to guard Howard? Matt Bonner? LOL)

Good luck emkee.