Thursday’s Best ATS Picks
Utah vs Atlanta
Thursday, December 19, 2019 at 7:30 p.m. ET in State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Utah is reputed for its strong defense and it relies more than most teams on playing good defense. In seven of its 11 covers, Utah held its opponent to below the current league average in points per game (110.4).
Today, however, presents a situation where the Jazz defense will not be remotely close to its usual high level.
The match-up explains why: Atlanta brings an offensive scheme predicated on the pick and roll. It runs the seventh-highest frequency of pick-and-roll ball handler plays and second-highest of pick-and-roll man.
In turn, Utah ranks 17th in PPP (points per possession) allowed against the former type of play and 14th in PPP against the latter type.
Atlanta loves to set screens for budding star Trae Young. Screens allow Young more three-point opportunities and he’s a high-caliber shooter as he’s converting 39.8 percent of them this season.
But he also doesn’t need the screen to work a shot for himself. He possesses solid dribbling skills which include his signature crossover step-back move.
He draws a lot of attention to himself, which allows his teammates to get open. In finding them, he’s accumulating 8.5 assists per game.
Young also finds his teammates while driving to the basket, which he and his teammates do a lot of — more than just about every other team.
One teammate worth mentioning is De’Andre Hunter. Hunter, as a rookie, is a work-in-progress but an extremely promising one.
He entered the NBA facing criticism for his lack of creativity in driving to the basket — he often just willed his way — and for his passive tendency to settle for jump shots.
But this month, Hunter is driving more frequently to the basket and with greater efficiency.
After all, he’s never lacked the ability to drive to the basket, showing off sometimes in college a nice spin move in isolation. He’s just making the drive a more consistent part of his game.
To stay competitive, Utah will have to lean more heavily on its ninth-worst offense in terms of points per game.
Perhaps the most positive asset of the Jazz offense is its three-point shooting — it ranks first in three-point conversion rate. In this respect, they will miss Mike Conley to a hamstring injury.
Despite a rough start to his season, Conley had turned things around. He was one of the team’s top shooters.
In general, Utah is struggling so much offensively because opponents are figuring out how to defend its ball-screen offense, which is the primary component of its attack, and to limit its ball movement as measured by number of passes.
Best Bet: Hawks +6.5 (-115) with Bookmaker
Brooklyn vs San Antonio
Thursday, December 19, 2019 at 8:30 p.m. ET in AT&T Center in San Antonio
Since Kyrie Irving has been out injured, the Nets have had to deviate from their isolation-based offense.
Instead, they’re attempting the fifth-most threes.
Teams tend to shoot best in their own venue as each venue has its unique structure and shooters perceive the basket most optimally in the venue they know best.
Net players really struggle to shoot on the road where they own the third-worst three-point percentage at 32.1.
Anyhow, the Spurs boast a very positive perimeter defense in important respects.
Overall, they rank eighth- and 10th-highest in the frequency with which they guard opposing three-point shooters tightly and very tightly (as measured by the distance of the nearest defender).
They’ve clamped down in both rankings lately, which is also paying off performance-wise. In their past three games, Spur opponents are making 25 percent of their threes.
On the other side, the Spurs love to post up. The key here is center LaMarcus Aldridge, who’s the team’s second-highest scorer with 18.8 points per game.
Aldridge possesses a superb skill set inside. He’s most known for turning around to execute a right-shoulder fadeaway.
He will thrive tonight against a Brooklyn defense ill-suited to limit him. The Nets own the 10th-worst PPP in guarding the post-up.
Collectively, Net players lack rim-protecting ability. They rank 20th in shot-block percentage.
Brooklyn bigs are, in general, terrible defensively based on their high defensive rating over 100.
While Brooklyn struggles to contain Aldridge, he’ll exploit the attention devoted to him to pass out of the post, as he is so used to doing.
Two beneficiaries of Aldridge’s passing will be guards Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes, who will obtain more opportunities behind the perimeter.
The former is converting over 40 percent of his threes on the season and the latter in December.
Best Bet: Spurs -2.5 (-105) with 5Dimes
Utah vs Atlanta
Thursday, December 19, 2019 at 7:30 p.m. ET in State Farm Arena in Atlanta
Utah is reputed for its strong defense and it relies more than most teams on playing good defense. In seven of its 11 covers, Utah held its opponent to below the current league average in points per game (110.4).
Today, however, presents a situation where the Jazz defense will not be remotely close to its usual high level.
The match-up explains why: Atlanta brings an offensive scheme predicated on the pick and roll. It runs the seventh-highest frequency of pick-and-roll ball handler plays and second-highest of pick-and-roll man.
In turn, Utah ranks 17th in PPP (points per possession) allowed against the former type of play and 14th in PPP against the latter type.
Atlanta loves to set screens for budding star Trae Young. Screens allow Young more three-point opportunities and he’s a high-caliber shooter as he’s converting 39.8 percent of them this season.
But he also doesn’t need the screen to work a shot for himself. He possesses solid dribbling skills which include his signature crossover step-back move.
He draws a lot of attention to himself, which allows his teammates to get open. In finding them, he’s accumulating 8.5 assists per game.
Young also finds his teammates while driving to the basket, which he and his teammates do a lot of — more than just about every other team.
One teammate worth mentioning is De’Andre Hunter. Hunter, as a rookie, is a work-in-progress but an extremely promising one.
He entered the NBA facing criticism for his lack of creativity in driving to the basket — he often just willed his way — and for his passive tendency to settle for jump shots.
But this month, Hunter is driving more frequently to the basket and with greater efficiency.
After all, he’s never lacked the ability to drive to the basket, showing off sometimes in college a nice spin move in isolation. He’s just making the drive a more consistent part of his game.
To stay competitive, Utah will have to lean more heavily on its ninth-worst offense in terms of points per game.
Perhaps the most positive asset of the Jazz offense is its three-point shooting — it ranks first in three-point conversion rate. In this respect, they will miss Mike Conley to a hamstring injury.
Despite a rough start to his season, Conley had turned things around. He was one of the team’s top shooters.
In general, Utah is struggling so much offensively because opponents are figuring out how to defend its ball-screen offense, which is the primary component of its attack, and to limit its ball movement as measured by number of passes.
Best Bet: Hawks +6.5 (-115) with Bookmaker
Brooklyn vs San Antonio
Thursday, December 19, 2019 at 8:30 p.m. ET in AT&T Center in San Antonio
Since Kyrie Irving has been out injured, the Nets have had to deviate from their isolation-based offense.
Instead, they’re attempting the fifth-most threes.
Teams tend to shoot best in their own venue as each venue has its unique structure and shooters perceive the basket most optimally in the venue they know best.
Net players really struggle to shoot on the road where they own the third-worst three-point percentage at 32.1.
Anyhow, the Spurs boast a very positive perimeter defense in important respects.
Overall, they rank eighth- and 10th-highest in the frequency with which they guard opposing three-point shooters tightly and very tightly (as measured by the distance of the nearest defender).
They’ve clamped down in both rankings lately, which is also paying off performance-wise. In their past three games, Spur opponents are making 25 percent of their threes.
On the other side, the Spurs love to post up. The key here is center LaMarcus Aldridge, who’s the team’s second-highest scorer with 18.8 points per game.
Aldridge possesses a superb skill set inside. He’s most known for turning around to execute a right-shoulder fadeaway.
He will thrive tonight against a Brooklyn defense ill-suited to limit him. The Nets own the 10th-worst PPP in guarding the post-up.
Collectively, Net players lack rim-protecting ability. They rank 20th in shot-block percentage.
Brooklyn bigs are, in general, terrible defensively based on their high defensive rating over 100.
While Brooklyn struggles to contain Aldridge, he’ll exploit the attention devoted to him to pass out of the post, as he is so used to doing.
Two beneficiaries of Aldridge’s passing will be guards Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes, who will obtain more opportunities behind the perimeter.
The former is converting over 40 percent of his threes on the season and the latter in December.
Best Bet: Spurs -2.5 (-105) with 5Dimes
