ThursDayBases

bloodhound

Sniffing out wins
thur
Bos -160 x1 ....I don’t have a ton of faith in the Boston SP Buchholz (2-4, 5.92) here. He allowed four runs (third straight giving up at least that many) over six innings in a loss to Cleveland last time out. Buchholz is walking too many this season (24) and allowing too many homers (nine). If there was one lone bright spot from that Indians game, it’s that Buchholz got through the first two innings unscathed after giving up 61.3 percent of his runs this season in those innings. pick there but do love the over. Buchholz has a 5.66 ERA at home this season.The Rockies are 0-7 in Gray’s past seven on the road. Boston is 8-2 in its past 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Gray (1-2, 6.75) had been good for three straight starts but then was destroyed last Thursday in St. Louis, allowing nine runs and eight hits over 3.1 innings.
Col/Bos Over 9 -115 x2....Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 vs. American League East.Over is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 9-3-1 in Buchholz’s last 13 starts during game 3 of a series.
 
early
Pit -180 x1 this line is higher than it should be my my # but I still like Pirates to win. Cole is improving over his last three starts. The lack of strikeouts this year, and getting zero over seven innings in his last start, is a little unsettling, but I still have faith in his ability. Corbin has been OK, butI dont like him as Cole. The Pirates are also at home and I think are a slightly better team than the Diamondbacks.


Mia -102 x1
Under 7 -150 x1 ...Under may be more solid play but I have to favor Fernandez even though he’s a bit more hittable away from Marlins Park in his career. Smyly also is 0-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home this season. Miami has won six of its past seven games against lefty starters.Under is 4-0 in Fernandez’s last 4 starts overall.Under is 10-1-1 in Rays last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
 
Bal +105 x2 ...Another chance for me to fade the Stros Gausman has been great and has a 2.55 ERA on the road this season and has only allowed three home runs all year . Also the Astros as a team are simply not playing good ball imo and I don’t think they can break out against Gausman.
 
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thur
Bos -160 x1 ....I don’t have a ton of faith in the Boston SP Buchholz (2-4, 5.92) here. He allowed four runs (third straight giving up at least that many) over six innings in a loss to Cleveland last time out. Buchholz is walking too many this season (24) and allowing too many homers (nine). If there was one lone bright spot from that Indians game, it’s that Buchholz got through the first two innings unscathed after giving up 61.3 percent of his runs this season in those innings. pick there but do love the over. Buchholz has a 5.66 ERA at home this season.The Rockies are 0-7 in Gray’s past seven on the road. Boston is 8-2 in its past 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Gray (1-2, 6.75) had been good for three straight starts but then was destroyed last Thursday in St. Louis, allowing nine runs and eight hits over 3.1 innings.
Col/Bos Over 9 -115 x2....Over is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 vs. American League East.Over is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 9-3-1 in Buchholz’s last 13 starts during game 3 of a series.
Probably won't happen vs Boston but I believe John Gray is eventually going to be an elite power pitcher. I have watched all of his starts and I believe he just needs to understand what it takes, mentally, to succeed at this level. He has an upper 90's fastball with movement and a wipe out slider. The night he beat the Mets he was dominant and it's a matter of further experience on this level to be consistently good ... just my two cents worth.
 
Good luck today Bloodhound. Wish you well ,all the best today.:shake: Bal to get it done.
 
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