Thursday you can't defend a walk Discussion

[GWarner27]

leans from the BOL open:
PHI +155
SD +155
TEX +130


on the radar:
SF u7 -120

 

[GWarner27]

i think we're officially at the time of year where the books don't want to lose on good teams so they're juicing them heavily and this will continue until the playoffs

 

[BetCrimes1984]

i think we're officially at the time of year where the books don't want to lose on good teams so they're juicing them heavily and this will continue until the playoffs

Favourites have gone 23-6 SU the last 29 games shown on NZ payTV. Good teams have been kickin' ass for sometime for viewers Down Under. Next one to be shown: LAD/Cubs Sunday nighter, which Arrieta should start.

 

[gsro]

looking at these right now:

detroit over
kc over
Minnesota ML + Over

 

[gsro]

-I think Wolf will regress, heck of a start for him but getting the angels off a near no hitter and the way detroit continues to swing the stick I like...
-Tillman not very good at Kauffman, and Yordano has been serving it up this year so I think we see some runs
-Minnesota is the second wildcard witht heir 6th straight win...don't think Milone is anything to die for but neither is Smyly yet so I think the hotter team @ + money is better here

 

[tuck321]

Random thoughts. Angels are toast. Angels have been walking dead men off a shutout. Detroit is a much better team in the day
Milone is not good on turf. Bad ERA at the site. He is a leftie which means Tampa can hit him. Over is ok but with him on 3 days rest---In his career he has played well on 3 days rest 1 time. Can he repeat?
Elias is on 2 days rest and Seattle is off 2 wins. Need to see the after a shutout numbers but in the grear Thursday battle Seattle is 2-9 and WS are 5-9
Reds seem very likely to be swept. Greinke excellent numbers with Diaz and off a SU loss and Reds playing a day game.
SF responds well to winning and Haren not a good road dog although I will get more accurate numbers later
Niese away on 4 is not a good spot. Will look more the issue though is will a vastly superior team actually lose or is the over just a simple play.

 

[tuck321]

leans from the BOL open:
PHI +155
SD +155
TEX +130


on the radar:
SF u7 -120

Toronto is 9-4 on Thursday. I have no doubt Philadelphia will score runs but betting against massively superior teams with a bad starting pitcher is not usually a good idea. SD needs to be looked at

 

[tuck321]

This qualifies as an ugly card. The idea is get in, make money and wait for more interesting games Friday

 

[gsro]

Toronto is 9-4 on Thursday. I have no doubt Philadelphia will score runs but betting against massively superior teams with a bad starting pitcher is not usually a good idea. SD needs to be looked at

if Marco Estrada uses the same strategy and pitching to flyball contact like he did in Anaheim (which was on purpose), he's going to have a hell of time today...but the jays are never really out of it with that offense

 

[tuck321]

TILLMAN is 2-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.500.His team's record is 3-3 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.0 units)
TILLMAN is 16-8 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 7-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

 

[tuck321]

Niese on 4. 6.44 ERA currently
His numbers with Marquez are fairly old with 1 good road game and another he got slaughtered in. Mets 7-1 last 8 with Marquez who is a homer.

 

[tuck321]

Just looking the home pitchers in Tampa and KC both have good numbers against both road teams and both road pitchers have terrible numbers against the home teams but both have some real history of success

 

[tuck321]

Preview: Padres (62-64) at Nationals (63-62)

Game: 3
Venue: Nationals Park
Date: August 27, 2015 7:05 PM EDT

After watching his brother beat his team, Joe Ross has a chance to make this a very good couple of days for the Ross family.

He'll will try to pitch the Washington Nationals to a fourth win in five games Thursday night against the San Diego Padres.

The Nationals were denied a fourth straight win Wednesday, falling 6-5 as San Diego's Tyson Ross allowed four runs over 6 1-3 innings to earn the win.

Now, he'll watch his younger brother take the mound for Washington (63-62), which dropped 6 1-2 games behind the NL East-leading New York Mets.

"You know it's going to be fun to watch that game (Wednesday)," Tyson Ross said. "I hope my brother does well and I think he said it best when he said I hope he pitches well and we beat the bullpen."

Joe Ross (4-5, 3.56 ERA) is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 26 strikeouts and one walk in 26 2-3 innings over his last four home starts.

The rookie right-hander is facing the Padres for the first time after turning in seven strong innings Saturday, yielding one run in a 6-1 win over visiting Milwaukee. He lost his two previous outings on the road with a 9.35 ERA, failing to complete the fifth inning in both.

"Used my changeup a lot more," Ross said of his improvement against the Brewers. "I didn't throw it a ton, but definitely threw it more than I have the past few games."

He'll try to slow down Justin Upton, who had two homers and three RBIs Wednesday. The left fielder is 6 for 18 with three doubles and five RBIs in the past four games.

Wednesday's victory was the 10th in 14 games following a six-game skid for San Diego (62-64), which has a chance to win a fifth straight series - its first against the Nationals since May 2011.

"That's the goal from day one of the season to try and win each series and we've done a good job of it lately," Upton said.

Andrew Cashner (5-12, 4.03) attempts to win back-to-back starts for the first time this year. The right-hander allowed one unearned run with eight strikeouts in six innings of a 9-3 victory over St. Louis on Friday.

Cashner, though, is 0-3 with a 5.44 ERA in eight road starts since beating the Los Angeles Angels on May 27. He's walked 24 and struck out 26 over 46 1-3 innings in those games.

Cashner is 0-3 with a 4.95 ERA in his last four starts against the Nationals, losing both visits to the nation's capital while surrendering 10 runs in eight innings.

He's has had a tough time with Denard Span and Jayson Werth, who are a combined 9 for 23 against him.

Span had a pair of doubles Wednesday after going 0 for 4 in the series opener following a seven-week stint on the disabled list for back tightness. He's 8 for 23 in five games against the Padres this year, while Werth is 1 for 8 in this series.

Bryce Harper is batting .407 with five doubles in seven games after going 2 for 3 with two RBIs Wednesday. He's a .434 hitter with 20 RBIs in 15 career contests with San Diego, and is 11 for 18 while driving in eight runs in the last five.​

Facebook cpaw rx twitter @cpawsports

 

[tuck321]

Cashner is on best rest on 5 days rest. Might be some supporting trends I will see later

 

[Gyno]

SF hits Haren pretty good. Haren hasn't been too good since joining the Cubs.

[TABLE="class: tablehead"]
<tbody>[TR="class: stathead"]
[TD="colspan: 13"]San Francisco Giants Career statistics vs. Dan Haren[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: colhead"]
[TD]BATTER[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]AB[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]H[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2B[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3B[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]HR[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]RBI[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]BB[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]SO[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]AVG[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]OBP[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]SLG[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]OPS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-32053"]
[TD]Nori Aoki[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-30901"]
[TD]Brandon Belt[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].364[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].333[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].818[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.152[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-28661"]
[TD]Gregor Blanco[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].333[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].455[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].667[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.121[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-5033"]
[TD]Marlon Byrd[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]33[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].424[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].457[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].909[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.366[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-30469"]
[TD]Brandon Crawford[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].250[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].250[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].750[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-33453"]
[TD]Matt Duffy[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].333[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].333[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].667[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-28896"]
[TD]Justin Maxwell[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].400[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].900[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-6488"]
[TD]Angel Pagan[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].533[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].929[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1.462[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-32087"]
[TD]Joe Panik[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].125[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].125[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].125[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-28687"]
[TD]Hunter Pence[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].053[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].100[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].053[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].153[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-30112"]
[TD]Buster Posey[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].273[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].273[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].273[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].545[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow player-10-30567"]
[TD]Hector Sanchez[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow player-10-32062"]
[TD]Andrew Susac[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow bi"]
[TD]Totals[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]134[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]40[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"]21[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].299[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].324[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].560[/TD]
[TD="class: textright"].884[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Gyno]

Greinke has gone at least 6 innings in every game this season. he's a machine

Dodgers offense seems to have woken up a bit.

 

[GWarner27]

Favourites have gone 23-6 SU the last 29 games shown on NZ payTV. Good teams have been kickin' ass for sometime for viewers Down Under. Next one to be shown: LAD/Cubs Sunday nighter, which Arrieta should start.

Think we may see some great prices on CHC this weekend

 

[GWarner27]

Toronto is 9-4 on Thursday. I have no doubt Philadelphia will score runs but betting against massively superior teams with a bad starting pitcher is not usually a good idea. SD needs to be looked at

Niese on 4. 6.44 ERA currently
His numbers with Marquez are fairly old with 1 good road game and another he got slaughtered in. Mets 7-1 last 8 with Marquez who is a homer.

Don't like harang in that ballpark, but NYM's offense isn't much to speak of and Niese isn't exactly the stud his numbers say he is

if Marco Estrada uses the same strategy and pitching to flyball contact like he did in Anaheim (which was on purpose), he's going to have a hell of time today...but the jays are never really out of it with that offense

I'm very interested in seeing when TOR becomes a good team to fade, but TEX is a near perfect park for them even if Gallardo is a RHP and threw well in the game I attended at Rogers Centre

Cashner is on best rest on 5 days rest. Might be some supporting trends I will see later

He certainly knows how to lose, but he has great stuff and has been better lately/can't have that much bad luck continuing all season

 

[gsro]

Don't like harang in that ballpark, but NYM's offense isn't much to speak of and Niese isn't exactly the stud his numbers say he is



I'm very interested in seeing when TOR becomes a good team to fade, but TEX is a near perfect park for them even if Gallardo is a RHP and threw well in the game I attended at Rogers Centre



He certainly knows how to lose, but he has great stuff and has been better lately/can't have that much bad luck continuing all season

came all the way here and didn't give me a ring...next time give me a ring i'll take you to some good joints

 

[GWarner27]

I will next time, I was a late add on a trip and basically all the plans were made so I just tagged along. Didn't even get my own poutine lol

 

[GWarner27]

Played TEX

 

[tuck321]

Maybe. I just hit Washington. Reasoning available outside.

 

[nbafan88]

Just looking at the schedules...

Minnesota is in a similar position to the Blue Jays... last game of a long RT and they have won a bunch of games in a row... based on this alone im leaning tampa, minny should be flat... need to look more

 

[nbafan88]

same goes for the mets... really awful spot

But no way can i go against the mets

 

[C-MAN]

Cashner off his highest pitch count of the season. He is also pitching after 2 team wins. In that same position this year, he is 0-3 going 18.2in, 11 er

 

[tuck321]

same goes for the mets... really awful spot

But no way can i go against the mets

Me either but betting on niese was also not allowed so I tried the over. 5 runs by Philadelphia in the 3rd after I was starting to lose faith.

 

[tuck321]

Played WS. Really curious why so many liked Seattle today with a starter on 2 days rest. A 2-9 days of the week spot and off 2 wins.

 

[tuck321]

By the way it is ok with me if Washington starts scoring.

 

[tuck321]

Well maybe the Padre run will wake them up. Need a fingers crossed icon.

 

[C-MAN]

Very interested in this prop:

more total bases: Paul Goldschmidt -110. Jason Heyward -120

i looked back over last 7, 14, 30 games and season and Goldy has edge. He is only 1-4 career vs Martinez from what I saw but did not see any stats for Heyward vs Ruby. Feel like a small play on Goldy is warranted.