Thursday TNT 01/31/13 NBA discussion thread

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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - THU 1/31[/h][/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 1/31[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Memphis Grizzlies[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+8 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 191.5 1.909[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Oklahoma City Thunder[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-8 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 191.5 2.000[/TD]
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[divol]

Bogut is back, GSW at home. Under should be really good option. I also doubt that Dallas will lose.

 

[raems]

Will wait because I think it can only climb up, but under in OKC strong tonight.

Thunder home games coming off a loss are 0-7 O/U this year when you factor out overtime.

Memphis premiere defensive club and Prince instead of Rudy only fortifies that more if anything.

Memphis off the trade, was struggling on offense enough before the deal. Now while they figure things out on the fly, Hollins will emphasize surviving a game like tonight by relying on their defense and controlling the pace of the game (Memphis plays 3rd slowest in the league). OKC off a road trip and a few days off could also be a little off on their jumpers here and there in the early going, something like 95-88 sounds about right in this game.

 

[Dollaz]

OKC-first game back off 6 game roadie.

1st Game Back - Western teams (5+ road trip)

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 83-72-4


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 51-55-2
vs non-Conference teams .............. 34-30-2
vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 26-27-1

 

[Dollaz]

GS off 4 game roadie

1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 89-81-8


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 63-63-7
vs Conference teams ..................... 56-45-5
vs Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 36-38-5

This is 5th game in 7 nights for GS

 

[Dollaz]

Anyone have 2nd Half ATS numbers? I've been blinding riding Atlanta and Portland the past few weeks when they are trailing at home and it has paid off very nicely.

 

[Dollaz]

Refs in GS:

63-39 to the over.
50-51 home team ATS

Average home score 101.8
Average road score 97.1

8-3 to over with line over 205

Dallas 14-7 over with line over 200
GS 12-8

Over is 3-0-1 in Mavericks last 4 games as an underdog.
Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0-1 in Mavericks last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

 

[nbafan88]

Portland has been a great 2h team for years now

 

[divol]

Dallas, Thunder and two Unders - see no reason why one of the four should lose...

 

[Dollaz]

Dallas, Thunder and two Unders - see no reason why one of the four should lose...

Haha. I'm leaning Dallas/over, Memphis/under. In that order for confidence.

 

[nbafan88]

#NBA #Lakers - Dwight Howard, Shoulder, Doubtful - is downgraded to doubtful Friday (2/1) at Minnesota 43 MINUTES AGO

 

[laopadak]

Already locked in Memphis +10 @ -115. Memphis has faired well in OKC in recent match ups, OKC coming home after long road trip and there's extra value in the line due to trade. Think OKC would be happy with straight win and back door is open for the cover. Thinking Memphis can at least keep it within arms length.

4units GL!

 

[D-Woww]

gl withthat. i liked OKC at 8 earlier today but now at 10 i want no part of it.

gonna be hard for Memphis to show up. they were one of the top teams in the West and in the playoffs anything can happen, and in the middle of a successful season, their owner sells the house? wtf? the players gotta be bummed and might even show up with a "for what, for who" attitude

 

[divol]

Btw, if my math is correct, this week favorites are 19 - 3 SU and there weren't that many really heavy favorites...
It adds to my confidence in Dallas. Hard to believe that Memphis will win SU in Oklahoma though...

If GSW and Thunder win SU, will be looking for some nice dogs for Friday for sure.

 

[divol]

What's to think about? Thunder off a loss should be auto play by now...

 

[laopadak]

A lot of questions and intangibles in the OKC. Going with my gut and not asking for the win, just competitive.

 

[laopadak]

Of course as soon as I pay the extra juice, it jumps to 10 -105...

 

[tuck321]

Played Dallas plus 1.5 first half for an average play. Dallas away last 10 is 8-2 ATS in the first half. They are operating with a big rest edge and are playing off a loss while GS is playing off a win,

 

[tuck321]

Happy Hippo

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[TD="class: thead"] #1

Today, 01:57 PM
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Happy Hippo 1.20.09

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 3,406

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[TD="class: alt1"] Thursday

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ATS: 112-83-5 (+32.2)
OU: 63-54-1 (+2.3)
ML dogs: 4-7 (+3.05)


A tale of two teams. The Warriors return home tonight from a four game road trip where they won the last two. In their last game, they shot over 50% from the field and over 65% from long range, without their core players even suiting up. They have looked very impressive and their team chemistry is great. Bogut returning gives them another great big and excellent passer.

Then there is that team from Dallas. The Mavericks led pretty much wire to wire in the Blazers game, and even with 12 seconds remaining they had a three point lead and somehow managed to lose. In fact, they lead the NBA in last minute meltdowns - this was their eighth loss this season when leading in the final 90 seconds of a game. They are turnover prone, cannot rebound very well (and Kaman is out too), don’t play very good defense, and their star playing is still struggling to recover from his injury.

So, given these teams, the line opens tonight with the home team Warriors a 3 point favorite.

The league acknowledged that the refs blew the call at the end of the Blazers game a couple days ago - a call that would have sent Mayo to the line to shoot two, and most likely would have iced the game for them. We all know how boisterous Mark Cuban is with his opinions about officiating, and one has to think that there may be some favorable calls from the reffing crew tonight.

The Warriors are playing their fifth game in seven tonight, and had to travel from the east coast to the west. They have some game-time decisions on players, but even if they play, they are a bit beat up. Although this trend does not mean much because it dates back to 1995, the Warriors are 2-13 SU and ATS after a game where they shoot 65% or better from downtown.

TNT games are played on Thursdays, and while there are sometimes other games on that day, the majority have been on TNT. It is interesting to note that teams playing as a home favorite of three or less during the regular season on Thursday are 38-37 SU and 27-47 ATS since the 2005 season.

Since the 2004 season, high scoring teams (between 98-102 ppg) that have scored in the 100s in their last two games when playing at home against another high scoring team as a favorite of less than 6 (average line -3.3) are 20-25 SU and 17-28 ATS. Since the 2006 season, teams with a win percentage between 40-50 playing in at least their second road game, when they have scored in the 100s in their last two games and the current line is between -3.5 and +3.5, are 70-39 SU and 69-37-3 ATS (average line pick). If you add in the fact that they are a dog, so the line is between +3.5 and 0, they are 29-21 SU and 31-18-1 ATS. Teams playing as a home favorite of -3.5 or less (average -2.2) against a team that averages in the 100s in points on the season are 14-23 SU (-2.6 ppg) and 9-26-2 ATS when coming off an 8+ point win when their previous site matches their opponents previous site.

Teams coming off a road loss where they held a double digit lead are 23-12 SU and 25-9-1 ATS since the 2003 playing as a road dog of 5 or less (average line 3.3) and their opponent is off a road win. The Mavericks have played well on the road recently. They have only won three games, but as a dog of 3 or less they are 2-1 SU, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

The Warriors beat the Mavericks in Dallas earlier this season in overtime. Nowitzki did not play in that game. I think Dallas should win this game, but given their propensity for close games, I'll take the three!


Mavs +3 x2


Good luck...
__________________
We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us. ~Bukowski~

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[TD="class: thead"] #2

Today, 02:04 PM
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DuckDogs Registered User

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,191

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[TD="class: alt1"] Good stuff HH - thanks for the write-up

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[TD="class: thead"] #3

Today, 04:04 PM
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ldabdou Chillaxin

Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: No. Cal Posts: 5,248

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[TD="class: alt1"] I totally agree. Sad thing is when I do it hasnt been good for the both of us lately. I will be at the game tonight so i will sprinkle ML @ +130 as well. Think Dal comes to play in a big way.
__________________
Sometimes the thrill of the chase causes us to be blind to the things we really need to see.

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Today, 04:14 PM
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Happy Hippo 1.20.09

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[TD="class: alt1"] I see a lot of people taking the Grizzlies tonight, and I would be interested in hearing any reasons why. Initially this morning, I thought I would bet them as well. If the line was smaller, taking the Grizz would actually be more enticing to me, but I think the Thunder come out booming tonight.

After a loss, the Thunder are 16-0 SU (16.6) and 12-4 ATS (average line -10.1) in their last 16. They are 7-0 SU (+13.4) and 5-2 ATS this season as a home favorite against a team with less rest. This season at home against team with a winning record, the Thunder are 8-2 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 11.6 ppg. In their last thirteen when playing an isolated home game, they are 12-1 SU (+13.8) and 10-3 ATS. After a road loss when playing in an isolated home game, they are 10-0 SU (+11.9) and 7-3-0 ATS since the 2009 season, including two of these games against the Grizzlies where they won and covered.

Again, one of the best pieces of NBA advise I have ever received is this - if you don’t think a dog can win the game SU, don’t bet it. Since the 2008 season, teams favored between 8-12 points (average line -9.8) cover the spread 62.2% of the time when they win the game SU. The Thunder at home this season are 16-2 SU (+13.2) and 12-6 ATS against this type of line.

In their defense, the Grizzlies on the road vs same line as dog are 2-8 SU (-5.4) and 8-2 ATS since the 2009 season.

The star-player out angle is always a good one, but in this case, I feel it may be deflating to the Grizzlies. They already traded away some good bench players, and they stepped up well after that happened, but trading away a star and not getting a star back is a different thing to me. They have completely changed their lineup, and that could take some adjustment time. I could see the Thunder overlooking them without Yag if it were a different situation, but coming off a loss, I think they will step up and crush them tonight.

The Thunder are 13-0 SU (18.5) and 11-2 ATS playing at home as a favorite of 8 or more after a loss since last season. In nine of these thirteen games, they were leading by 6 or more at halftime. They have the best first half margin average at home this season, +7.6. Memphis is also a good first half team, but I am hoping it may take them some time to adjust tonight.

Finally, the fact that the Grizzlies beat the Thunder earlier this season on their home floor will provide any extra motivation they need to get up for this one.


Thunder -5.5 first half


Good luck...
__________________
We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us. ~Bukowski~

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Today, 04:16 PM
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Happy Hippo 1.20.09

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[TD="class: alt1"] Quote:

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[TD="class: alt2"] Originally Posted by ldabdou I totally agree. Sad thing is when I do it hasnt been good for the both of us lately. I will be at the game tonight so i will sprinkle ML @ +130 as well. Think Dal comes to play in a big way.
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Have fun at the game! Jealous...

I used to live in Colorado and would go watch the Nugs play all the time, but now I live about halfway between the Wizards and the Bobcats

__________________
We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us. ~Bukowski~

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Refs in the OKC game seem heavily split toward OKC. Still thinking about this game.

 

[tuck321]

Have used OKC ML in 2 chalk parlays in hockey so far. Memphis has covered as an 8.5 or higher dog 6 in a row going back to 12-06-2010. This could be the time they slip easily.

 

[divol]

I had this game circled for few months now and just like the last game - since Memphis won in Oklahoma. At first it was all perfect, with Thunder losing to the Lakers, so my two favorite angles - revenge and Thunder off a loss were in play.
But than Conley got injured, Yag got traded.
Still played the Thunder, but not as much as I wanted.

 

[nbafan88]

Yeah it's weird isn't it the divol?


You have look at each situation like this individually and try to figure out the teams psyche. The grizz players were shocked by this trade from the tweets I saw. That can't be a good thing.

 

[divol]

The weird thing for me is that it's second time straight. I circled Clippers coming to Memphis, six months ago, when Clips beat Memphis in Game 7. Suddenly, Yag and CP3, both missed the game, so the whole angle went down to drain...

But yeah, I doubt that Memphis players are too thrilled. But on the other hand, I thought the same after they gave up their entire bench, so who knows...

I do know that Thunder should win this one easily, simply because they come off a loss and with 4 days rest, they may start a bit sluggish, but at some point, turn it on and win at least one quarter by double digits.

 

[nbafan88]

Losing role players off the bench is fine but your superstar is a whole different story.


Than you have TP coming in after spending 11 years in Detroit. It's gonna take a while to get adjusted. Just human nature.

 

[Picking Winners]

All about the Mavs tonight getting the points. Stephen Curry ankle is a big question

Take the Points

 

[emkee]

Who's in or out in the Mavs/Warriors game ?

Line went to 2 briefly then jumped up to 4...

 

[emkee]

Okay. It's Dirk.

Mavs by 20, I guess...

 

[raems]

Memphis might win this game.

 

[raems]

Got carried away, remember Memphis making a bunch of huge comebacks in years past. Guess not tonight.

 

[txtennisboy]

Mavs+5 -130
Mavs +2 1st half

Need a little more bankroll before
Super Bowl....ravens getting lots of love

 

[M.W.]

Mavs+5 -130
Mavs +2 1st half

Need a little more bankroll before
Super Bowl....ravens getting lots of love

Got the news on Dirk and bought out of my Mavs play. Not sure what I'll so at 4.5.

 

[nbafan88]

No dirk, no curry, poor fans