Let’s Make Some Mean Green On Thursday Triple Pack
Thursday night’s card offers three games, the most exciting of which is last year’s Conference USA Title rematch between Florida Atlantic and North Texas. Read on for a preview of all three games.
Florida Atlantic (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U) vs North Texas (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 0-8-1 O/U)
Thursday, 8:30 ET (CBSSN)
NCAAF Pick: Under 61.5
Both teams met last December for the Conference USA Championship. Florida Atlantic dominated that game from the start en route to a 41-17 victory. That game went well ‚under‘ the total of 71. Desperate for ‚over‘ backers, oddsmakers have put out a 10-point lower total for this year’s rematch. Let’s not take the bait.
The North Texas „under“ is a perfect 8-0-1 because the defense has transformed itself, especially against the run. Last year, the Mean Green allowed 4.87 YPC against conference opponents, ranking 88th nationally in the category. This year, they average 3.09 YPC against conference opponents, close to two YPC fewer than last year and they rank 13th nationally in the category. The key to their improvement has been twofold. Troy Reffett became the team’s full-time defensive coordinator and the team returned significant experience. Five of its top seven defensive linemen returned plus all of its linebackers except for two relatively meaningless losses and three starters in the secondary. The returners have figured out Reffett’s complicated defense which involves some complex schemes, disguised blitzes and the like. The Mean Green’s improvement in its run defense is crucial against an FAU team that is run-first. FAU runs 59 percent of the time, which is nationally the 25th-highest run play percentage. FAU ran for 282 yards against North Texas last year en route to its 40-point effort, but won’t come close to that number this year because of North Texas’ improved defense.
Whenever North Texas’ star quarterback Mason Fine faced Florida Atlantic, he’s had one of his worst performances. Last year, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns and had one of his lowest passer ratings in two games against them. This year, he has become better at avoiding interceptions, but will still face a tough challenge. FAU’s average opposing passer rating is 124, nearly identical to last year’s number, and places them top-50 nationally. The secondary is at least as good as last year because it returned its top seven defensive backs, including First-Team All-Conference selections safety Jalen Young and cornerback Shelton Lewis.
Toledo (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs Kent State (2-8 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Thursday, 6 ET (CBSSN)
NCAAF Pick: Kent State +13.5
I faded Toledo last week without starting quarterback Mitchell Guadagni and, with Guadagni still injured, I don’t want to mess with success. When Guadagni played a minimal role or was absent after leading Toledo to a 2-1 ATS start, the Rockets went 0-4 ATS. The Rockets then covered their next two games. They ran over Western Michigan while the backup Eli Peters passed for only 107 yards. They then decimated a Ball State team which has the conference’s worst pass defense and which was also missing its star quarterback. Last week, still led by Peters, Toledo came up 20 points short of covering the spread against Northern Illinois. Oddsmakers have yet to adjust for how bad Toledo is with Peters.
When oddsmakers are asking bettors to lay two whole touchdowns, I want to find some decisive edge. The edge isn’t on defense because both teams play poor defensively. In fact, Toledo ranks much lower than Kent State in opposing YPC against conference opponents. Led by dual-threat quarterback Woody Barrett and running back Justin Rankin’s five YPC, Kent State nearly upset Akron as 4.5-point home underdogs and was one point from upsetting Ohio as 12.5 point home dogs. The Golden Flashes are 3-0 ATS at home and have their most doable cover job yet against a Toledo without Guadagni.
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Tulane (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 O/U) vs Houston (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U)
Thursday, 8 ET (ESPN)
NCAAF Pick: Over 67.5
The ‚over‘ has hit in four consecutive Houston games, in each of which Houston allowed over 30 points. Houston’s defense has taken a major step back from last year. They allowed 22 points more to Navy this year than last year, 12 points more to South Florida, nine points more to SMU, and 36 points more to Temple. The defensive crisis stems from key injuries to its defensive line. Isaiah Chambers, who had transferred from TCU and led the team in sacks, has been injured since October. Houston’s defensive struggles primarily took shape when future NFL star defensive tackle Ed Oliver went down four games ago against Navy. Without him there to plug up the middle, opponents are able to run with ease against Houston. Navy ran for 70 more yards against Houston than it does on average. USF ran for about the same number as its already very high season average, 204. SMU ran for 77 more yards than its average and Temple ran for 138 more yards.
Tulane is a run-first team that averages 210 yards per game. Like Navy, it employs a triple option attack. But playing Navy doesn’t give Houston any advantage against Tulane because Tulane’s style is still very different from Navy’s. Unlike Navy’s power-run focus, Tulane likes to attack the edges with speed. LSU transfer Jonathan McMillan is a dual-threat quarterback with a 6:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Darius Bradwell and Corey Dauphine average over six yards per carry. With Houston’s troubles on defense, it has had to depend more on quarterback D’Eriq King. King has been unstoppable this year, producing a 35:6 touchdown-to-inteception ratio, nearly 3500 yards running and passing combined and the nation’s fifth-highest QB rating. Houston has scored at least seven touchdowns in three of its last four games largely due to King’s increased number of drop-backs.
Thursday night’s card offers three games, the most exciting of which is last year’s Conference USA Title rematch between Florida Atlantic and North Texas. Read on for a preview of all three games.
Florida Atlantic (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U) vs North Texas (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 0-8-1 O/U)
Thursday, 8:30 ET (CBSSN)
NCAAF Pick: Under 61.5
Both teams met last December for the Conference USA Championship. Florida Atlantic dominated that game from the start en route to a 41-17 victory. That game went well ‚under‘ the total of 71. Desperate for ‚over‘ backers, oddsmakers have put out a 10-point lower total for this year’s rematch. Let’s not take the bait.
The North Texas „under“ is a perfect 8-0-1 because the defense has transformed itself, especially against the run. Last year, the Mean Green allowed 4.87 YPC against conference opponents, ranking 88th nationally in the category. This year, they average 3.09 YPC against conference opponents, close to two YPC fewer than last year and they rank 13th nationally in the category. The key to their improvement has been twofold. Troy Reffett became the team’s full-time defensive coordinator and the team returned significant experience. Five of its top seven defensive linemen returned plus all of its linebackers except for two relatively meaningless losses and three starters in the secondary. The returners have figured out Reffett’s complicated defense which involves some complex schemes, disguised blitzes and the like. The Mean Green’s improvement in its run defense is crucial against an FAU team that is run-first. FAU runs 59 percent of the time, which is nationally the 25th-highest run play percentage. FAU ran for 282 yards against North Texas last year en route to its 40-point effort, but won’t come close to that number this year because of North Texas’ improved defense.
Whenever North Texas’ star quarterback Mason Fine faced Florida Atlantic, he’s had one of his worst performances. Last year, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns and had one of his lowest passer ratings in two games against them. This year, he has become better at avoiding interceptions, but will still face a tough challenge. FAU’s average opposing passer rating is 124, nearly identical to last year’s number, and places them top-50 nationally. The secondary is at least as good as last year because it returned its top seven defensive backs, including First-Team All-Conference selections safety Jalen Young and cornerback Shelton Lewis.
Toledo (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs Kent State (2-8 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Thursday, 6 ET (CBSSN)
NCAAF Pick: Kent State +13.5
I faded Toledo last week without starting quarterback Mitchell Guadagni and, with Guadagni still injured, I don’t want to mess with success. When Guadagni played a minimal role or was absent after leading Toledo to a 2-1 ATS start, the Rockets went 0-4 ATS. The Rockets then covered their next two games. They ran over Western Michigan while the backup Eli Peters passed for only 107 yards. They then decimated a Ball State team which has the conference’s worst pass defense and which was also missing its star quarterback. Last week, still led by Peters, Toledo came up 20 points short of covering the spread against Northern Illinois. Oddsmakers have yet to adjust for how bad Toledo is with Peters.
When oddsmakers are asking bettors to lay two whole touchdowns, I want to find some decisive edge. The edge isn’t on defense because both teams play poor defensively. In fact, Toledo ranks much lower than Kent State in opposing YPC against conference opponents. Led by dual-threat quarterback Woody Barrett and running back Justin Rankin’s five YPC, Kent State nearly upset Akron as 4.5-point home underdogs and was one point from upsetting Ohio as 12.5 point home dogs. The Golden Flashes are 3-0 ATS at home and have their most doable cover job yet against a Toledo without Guadagni.
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Tulane (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 O/U) vs Houston (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U)
Thursday, 8 ET (ESPN)
NCAAF Pick: Over 67.5
The ‚over‘ has hit in four consecutive Houston games, in each of which Houston allowed over 30 points. Houston’s defense has taken a major step back from last year. They allowed 22 points more to Navy this year than last year, 12 points more to South Florida, nine points more to SMU, and 36 points more to Temple. The defensive crisis stems from key injuries to its defensive line. Isaiah Chambers, who had transferred from TCU and led the team in sacks, has been injured since October. Houston’s defensive struggles primarily took shape when future NFL star defensive tackle Ed Oliver went down four games ago against Navy. Without him there to plug up the middle, opponents are able to run with ease against Houston. Navy ran for 70 more yards against Houston than it does on average. USF ran for about the same number as its already very high season average, 204. SMU ran for 77 more yards than its average and Temple ran for 138 more yards.
Tulane is a run-first team that averages 210 yards per game. Like Navy, it employs a triple option attack. But playing Navy doesn’t give Houston any advantage against Tulane because Tulane’s style is still very different from Navy’s. Unlike Navy’s power-run focus, Tulane likes to attack the edges with speed. LSU transfer Jonathan McMillan is a dual-threat quarterback with a 6:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Darius Bradwell and Corey Dauphine average over six yards per carry. With Houston’s troubles on defense, it has had to depend more on quarterback D’Eriq King. King has been unstoppable this year, producing a 35:6 touchdown-to-inteception ratio, nearly 3500 yards running and passing combined and the nation’s fifth-highest QB rating. Houston has scored at least seven touchdowns in three of its last four games largely due to King’s increased number of drop-backs.
