Thursday Thoughts

[SportsNut]

Thursday :

- Remember last year I noticed alot of teams who rallied in the 9th but came up short started fast the day ? Well the Yankees fit strongly into that with a 3 run 9th and Matsui retired to end the game as the tieing run. So strong lean to Yanks to score first run of the game which is going to be around -190 or higher and smaller lean to 1st Inn score YES prop .

- Yanks are now 0-2 and have lost IMO basically because of the ineffectiveness of CC and Wang . Its not that they have had just 1 bad inning both guys labored from the onset and simply was a matter of time . Whats INSANE is our "aces" have ZERO strikeouts so far . It was nice to see the pen pitch well and keep us in it . Bottomline its Burnett vs Simon , Yanks and their great Game 3 record vs Balt poor game 3 record ( which Balt twice last year had NY down 2-0 and Yanks avoided the sweep on both occassions @ Camden but even better was NYY was 6-0 in Game3s vs them last season , Yanks good day team and Balt no so good day team ....it seems pricey in the -160 to -170 range but here is my take beyond the sweep angle : you had to lay about -200 for CC vs Guthrie , about -160 for Wang vs the unknown Jap vet and now you have a guy in Burnett just as good but probably filthier then both Yank SP to date and you go from Guthrie , Japanese star to Alfredo Simon and yet the price is -160 cheaper then when it was #1 vs #1 .......

- Reds ML : Arroyo has been dealing with the carpel tunnel but owned NYM last season and KRod is probably unavailable ...Ollie Perez has had someissues @ Cincy as well. The total is tough IMO could make sound arguements for both ...

- Det and Tor is another prop play : Which is the 1st INN YES there will be a score PROP play when there is a SP making his ML debut ...also lean OVER ...

- was thinking over @ Minny to continue the series history trend but perkins always pitched well vs SEA last year but seemed to hit the wall in the 5th an d6th innings vs them and quickly unraveling . Washburn has a decent track record vs Minny and the fact he is LH cant hurt but also think twinkies exceled vs LHSP at home in 08 ...

- Dice K was very good in the WBC but hasnt been that sharp vs TB. With Dice K how must rest in bewteen starts is always huge and something I must check but he should be on more then normal which is his best . Garza had some real shar starts vs Boston last season as well . Off a loss though I like DiceK and leaning Under 1st 5 inn and maybe more

- Cards really need this game and both SP had sharp ST's. Ohlendorf had one huge issue imo and that was he to often dropped his arm and the breaking stuff was flat just spinning . Havent seen him yet but always said he could be easily fixed and tap his potential. So not looking at his past history much . Lean 1st 5 under and game under lesser ...pens?? Maybe Yanks , Cards , Rsox parlay ?

- Pavano is a unknown at this time but looked decent last ST start and Mccarthy has had some decent outings vs CLE . With CLE being such a strong UNDER team and on getaway day have to look at the UNDER 11 ...

-Thinking Over @ SD because see the PODS as being better equipped to hit LH even if its a young stud like Kershaw who was 3-0 vs them last season. Correria didnt have the greatest ST but did manage some upsets vs LAD last year...minor lean SD ...play on them vs LHP at this point is what I am thinking

- SF was terrible vs LHP last year and Cain is mr. no luck ...

- again Anderson ML debut have to think about 1st inn yes prop but like the 1st 5 under some and maybe game under . reason is LAA vs a LH and Weaver sick past history vs Oakland....

thats all for now..good luck andshould be here in the morning:cheers:

 

[gsro]

giooodluck nut

 

[SportsNut]

Two things I left out were , I expect to play the Grand Salami UNDER here as expecting sluggish offenses ....

The other was the UNDERDOG on the ARL update :

Sunday 1-0
Monday 5-0
Tuesday 4-1
Wednesday 9-0

Dogs on the ARL which is them laying -1.5 RUNS are now 19-1 with the lone loser being Houston 3-2 win . Thats the definition of value IMO when you get probably at worst 70 cents more for that rather then just the normal ML play.....also fwiw so far each day has seen just 2 favs win by 1 run therefore meaning only 6 favs to date have failed to cover the -1.5 RL which means to date regardless of fav or dog if you went with the -1.5 RL instead of the ML there were only 7 games that won but did not cover 1.5 runs.......and I believe we have had 39 games so far meaning 32 of 39 were decided by 2 + runs :cheers:

 

[CapTwo]

:cheers:

Yessir, you definitely saved me some $$$ the other day. Appreciated it.

On the same page with you on most of these, and will also be playing bos/tb 1H under in the AM when the lines available. Getaway game, day game in fenway,... I like it.
Dice-k like you said is best when rested, and garza pitched extremely well against boston last year and has enough pitches to keep them guessing.
NELSON behind the dish should help too as hes an UNDER guy.

Also trying to figure out how to get involved with a couple of these chalkier plays... mainly chisox (consdering an RL) and your yanks (probably parlay). GL bro

 

[Trueblue]

Few things that jump out...

Toronto day game = Under trend and Toronto advantage. New pitchers, but still like Jays for the series win..

Clubber Nelson in boston. I got burned by the hook tonight...looking for the courage to hit the under again between matsuzaka and garza. Dont trust Garza yet...need some more research...weary.

Cinci pen must be tired after Volquez exited after just under 5ip... I think NYM bp depth is still better then reds... Bronson was super prone to the long ball last year but still a high K-rate...feast or famine.. I dont know which it will be yet.

How the hell can u lay an 8 total down on ohledorf? I know you prolly know him better then I do since he's from the Yanks org, but jeez.. He is a liability. Carpenter with a decent spring but I cant see him going unscathed. Hudson bhp supports an over too...8? fishy.

LAD/SDG is going for the under sweep tomorrow. I've cashed all 3 so far and it's not easy for me to hop off when fletcher is bhp... SDG pitching some newbies all over the place.. I'm surprised we have not seen a huge inning yet from LAD... Under or nothing, but that pen is scary. Wade and Kuo probably not available as well.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

the one thing i'll say is do not trust Arroyo this season until he shows something...as he hasn't been able to get minor league hitters out yet.

 

[Zipstar81]

Correct me if Im wrong but doesnt arroyo struggle in day games. I know he has said at times he hates day games and prefers pitching at night..I personally think he gets rocked today if the mets put that same lineup out there.. All those left handed hitters ina row is brutal if you dont have your stuff working..

 

[SteelBucsFan]

NL 1st inn run sc. --- yes ...15-6.. ytd

 

[D-Woww]

love the yanks....Simon is one of those guys who would be in the minors on most clubs. Dont know what the Orioles see in him. Can't see the Yanks getting swept, and even though teh price is gonna be high, I think its a very good bet. This same pitching matchup in June could get a -230 price

Love the cards too...carpenter knows how to pitch to clown teams like the Pirates. Can't see STL letting them take 3 of 4.

that Tor/Det prop is interesting...both first round picks making ML debuts. Common logic would say that if one of them has jitters, you are golden. However, I think they are both talented and come up fired up. Prob a no play for me, but I like where your heads at and I will be rooting for you to win it.

Like the idea of a Yanks and Cards parlay...not so much when you include the Sox..Garza can be dominant on any given day. I love the under in that one actually.

I know prospects very well, and that guy Anderson goin for Oak tonite is a stud...I think the Angels have a hellish time trying to hit him...A's and Under

 

[Tito]

that ARL stat is absolutely unbelievable nut....i want to just blindly play that, but that has to end right?

gl today

 

[ManchesterUk]

Always like reading your thoughts nut.

GL Today fella

 

[GWarner27]

good point on getaway day.

...i'm leaning to the TEX UNDER and the StL over at this point

 

[SportsNut]

First thing is my day has already been ruined about hearing what happened to Nick Adenhart . Truly sad and tragic . Now we as a society often over glorify athletes and entertainers , chances our most people never really heard of him( unlike say Heath Ledger) , us who follow sports closely get attached to athletes because we spend so much time watching them or reading about them you almost feel like you know them . Might sound a tad overdramatic but really heartbreaking to see a young kid with loads of potential just die in what appears to a careless car accident ...I have great empathy for the Adenhart family ..

Baseball today :
1st 5 inn Tigers ML -110 {40 maybe 60}
Yankees -170 {160}
NYY and RSox {80} +155
Reds +1.5 RL -150 {80}
Under 101.5 Runs {120} LAA game is canceled and so will be this bet
Under 5 runs +11 Reds {40}
Under 11 -120 Texas {60 maybe 80}

props:
NO runs scored @ Cincy 1st inn -115 {40}
Yes runs scored @ Jays 1st Inn -130 {40}
Yanks will score 1st {60 maybe 80}


there will be more just a bit short on time and will reply to the posts as well ....

GL:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Double check this if you can but :

Twins at Home in 2008 vs LHSP 18-4 :

lost 1-0 to Saunders , 4-0 to Cliff Lee both in April , 3-2 to Garrett Olson and 5-1 to Manny Parra and believe they won the last 12 after Parra vs a LHSP..

they were bailed out some but did win the game Bedard started so that puts them at :

19-4 at home vs LHSP since the beginning of the 2008 season...

 

[nawlins51]

GL Bro. On a few that we discussed last night

 

[SportsNut]

Correct me if Im wrong but doesnt arroyo struggle in day games. I know he has said at times he hates day games and prefers pitching at night..I personally think he gets rocked today if the mets put that same lineup out there.. All those left handed hitters ina row is brutal if you dont have your stuff working..

You are correct he doesnt pitch well in day games in the past but he has been very good in April last 3-4 seasons until last year . As well as being much better at home . So I just went with that more then anything else . oliver Perez is definetly better in day games as well . Guess all the negative press about the two has me liking the under and rolled the dice reds at least keep it close avoiding the sweep with the mets pen being a tad thin possible today ...:cheers:

 

[aplous]

Love the Twins today.....Perkins (along with all Twins starters) were the bomb at home last year......Perk was 7-3.

 

[EstreetPicks]

First thing is my day has already been ruined about hearing what happened to Nick Adenhart . Truly sad and tragic . Now we as a society often over glorify athletes and entertainers , chances our most people never really heard of him( unlike say Heath Ledger) , us who follow sports closely get attached to athletes because we spend so much time watching them or reading about them you almost feel like you know them . Might sound a tad overdramatic but really heartbreaking to see a young kid with loads of potential just die in what appears to a careless car accident ...I have great empathy for the Adenhart family ..

I was thinking something along these lines as well. I think we wish for nothing but success for young athletes out of a sense of fantasy (we have all played the games at some level, as opposed to having bands or acting, for instance) or vicarious thrill....and as much as it pisses us off when athletes act like dopes it breaks our hearts when they are struck down prematurely.

RIP young man...

 

[SportsNut]

EStreet - well said:shake:

Aplous - for some reason I passed on Minny (probably because I was thinking SEA till I remembered that stat) and just stuck with the under . Which was a huge decision ...twins are bad right now they cant hit a lick .....:shake:

Tito- Its a long standing trend that for the 1st 6 weeks and probably about to Memorial day for some reason dogs tend to almost always win by 2+ runs . I think it mostly due to the fact pitchers are worker there way into form from starters to bullpens and also books trying to get a grasp on teams and who they are identity wise . You might have some teams as small favs that just dont deserve to be. It kinda doesnt work June - AUgust but in Sept with the 40 man rosters it becomes big again...I mentioned it in the talking shop thread about baseball ...its worked for 8 years that I recall and obviously its insane at the moment but I think it keeps at a huge clip for awhile ..:cheers:

YoungOne - good stuff bro...agree with what you posted very much ..that was my concern about the Det prop as it was 2 1st rounders and Boston did concern me ...:cheers:

good stuff True , cap , etc...manchester ..tx bro ...:cheers: