THURSDAY "Talk Me Off"

AtlHawks

Pretty much a regular
Should have been talked off yesterday but I was stubborn as hell. Liked the play too much and didn't analyze the solid info you guys provided.
Did lower my bet to one unit though, so it didn't kill me.

After watching that Boston/Sacto game last night I am going to have to play this.

BOSTON / SEATTLE UNDERS 193

Looks to me as if Boston is going to be playing some "D" this road trip. Shut down Sac and held them to 69 points @ Arco. That is pretty amazing IMO. Who the hell is going to score for Seattle tonight. Surely they will be focused on shutting down KD.
Although Boston offense was pretty poor last night as well, even if they rebound and score 100 I do not see Seattle getting to 90.


Talk Me Off BOS/SEA Unders 193


TMO Wednesday DAL +3
 
Sacramento has some resemblance to something called defense, including shutdown defender Artest. Seattle has nothing of that nature, and certainly no Artest-type defender. Especially at home, they love to run and gun, grab as many offensive rebounds with easy putbacks, hope the opponent misses on offense, rebound those misses , and start the cycle over again.

Boston likes to get right up on their man while defending, they force a lot of TOs that lead to easy fast breaks. Things have been favorable to Boston though, they want a slow pace to take advantage of their tight defensive style they're playing. They've only played six teams all year in the top ten in PACE (possessions per game)... two of those were on the road, with an average score of 101.5 - 95.

When a team forces an uptempo game, Boston is being dragged into a different type of tempo than they want. There have only been two of these games on the road so far, but until they show me they can control the tempo on the road vs an uptempo team, I see a lot of value in the over
 
What do you want?

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Nah. I really spent much of the day looking at the Texas - ASU game. Only briefly looked at Cle @ Dallas which I took Cavs but passed on the 1st H under(damn!). Thought Suns looked to easy and just never really looked at it. Didnt realize they played again on Friday. This was a toughie for me. The total was dependent I thought on who won Sea & Over or Bos and Under. Was gonna take the 2nd H over but it went off . Tough game to figure since Boston never really played B2B's on the road. Hoped Bos had another quick start but no such luck....

Though I guess a simple NO would have done....I am pulling for ya!
 
Bos draining 3s 12 of 20. At least Boston is pulling awayhoping eliminating the need to extend the game late and instead run the clock down which I think BOS will do. 24 (25) pts is still a good amount in 6:15 to score..
 
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