Thursday sportstalk with Handy

[handy]

Hi there,

Welcome to Thursday sports talk with Handy. Sorry, but there is no way I'm making multiple threads one for hoops and the other for bases. I will just put it in here and if the mods want to post it in both forums that's fine with me.

Anyways, lets get the hoops games out of the way real quick. I believe the Cavs will beat the Heat tonight. I don't know what the line is but I'm guessing they're going to be at least 5 and maybe 6 pt. home favorites vs. the Heat. I'm predicting you will see a big public bet on the Heat. Not sure if they're the right side but I can tell you there is no way I want anything to do with Miami right now. They're just not playing well, especially on the road.

I think the Spurs win tonight and maybe rather easily. This is the classic case of one team needing the win more than the other. Just like last Sunday in Phoenix when the Suns really needed a W while the Mavs didn't. If San Antonio has any slim hopes of catching the Suns they must win tonight. Even if they do I think deep down the Suns know they're not catching them.

Well time to toot my own horn a little bit because it appears I might be one lucky shit on the 18th of April. As some of you know at the beginning of the season I made two season win totals bets. The first was on the Bucks under 42.5 and then I went for the middle of over 38.5. I was slightly weighted on the under so I'm going to turn a small one unit profit on that one. Now the big bet I made was on the Lakers over 42.5 and under 43.5 with the under being weighted by a unit or so. When all the injuries were announced at the beginning of the year I felt LA wouldn't break even. Then once I placed a max bet on the under they dropped the line one full game so I said fuck it. I will play the over too but for one unit less. Well the Lakers are sitting on 39-35 with their game vs. LAC still in progress. It looks more and more like this sucker is coming down to the last game of the year. As long as LAL is on 42 or 43 wins on the last game of the year I'm in a winning situation. All right this is just pure dumb luck if this happens but I'm pretty excited about the possiblity of being dead on. This is my first time ever buying win totals and I only bought them based on bad injury reports on both teams. Otherwise I wouldn't have a clue as to which side to bet over or under. All right I'm sure you're saying fuck you asshole talk about something else. O.K. I will.

Baseball:

Well I've played a few baseball games in the first couple of days and have turned a small profit. The best part about it is I haven't watched the games with the exception of an inning here and there.

Today's games are kind of ugly looking.

I think betting against Jason Marquis on the road at a pick isn't a bad bet. Not a great bet but who the fuck would want Jason Marquis on the road at a pick em vs just about any pitcher in baseball? He sucks.

Don't get caught up in Dice-K today. I have no stats to back up this statement and nor would it mean shit anyways. I just feel that more times than not when a budding superstar or free agent makes his debut for their new team their first outing is often unsucessful. Barry Zito was the first one to come to mind this year. I bet against him the other day and I guess that was easy money. I didn't see one pitch in that game. I'm not betting the Royals because I don't prefer to bet on bad teams. Just my perogative. Yes, there is money to be made betting on bad teams but it's really a dart board when it comes to picking them to beat teams like Boston. I know they had beat them 4 straight dating back to last year in KC. It doesn't mean shit. Just like the A's had the Mariners number all last year and so many knuckleheads blindly bet the A's the first two games of this year and they got raped by the Mariners. Yup, it's easy to think Boston wins and they very well may but I'm not laying that kind of change on this kid in his first major league start on the road.

As many of you know I often talk about understand the line and what you think the oddsmakers are telling you. Well when I look at the lines they've posted on the Indians this week I get the impression they believe the Indians are going to be really good. When was the last time these White Sox pitchers got no respect at home vs. any team? I can't remember. The fact that Sowers is a pick vs. Buerhlre makes me believe the Indians are really good or the White Sox aren't. We will have to wait and see how this plays itself out but make a mental note that the bookmakers believe the Indians are going to be really good this year.

Here is another interesting thing I picked up on the other day. I saw a series price for Det/Tor at -135 on the Tigers. Yes, Roy and AJ were going the first two games but that number tipped me off to thinking the books believe the Jays were likely to win this series. It seemed awfully short considering Verlander would be facing Chacin in the rubber game. Well somewhat to my surprise Verlander is only -135 or so. He didn't have a great spring but I don't trust Gustavo Chacin period. I just think this could be a buyer beware on the Tigers.

How good are the Phillies going to be? I have no clue but I do think once again the book makers are telling us they think the Braves are a decent team given the lines they've put up the past couple days at Philly.

MLB is a long season a marathon not a sprint as many would like to say. Thursday is one of these days which I really don't like the card other than to say I think the Yankees beat the Devil Rays. Yeah, so what? The only people who think the Yanks might lose are the Devil Rays.

My big baseball bet of the week goes off Friday afternoon. Just bet the Texas Rangers to beat the Red Sox and thank Handy after the game. In fact I'm planning my first "Capping the Game" "Party in Handyland" after the Rangers beat the crap out of Tim Wakefield for the umteenth time.

Well good luck and as always life is dandy when you're learning from Handy

 

[brewer]

the braves i like a lot. i have them to win the east.

 

[HUNT]

great stuff handy. love your write-ups.

 

[HUNT]

The card is awful for today.

 

[handy]

One more thing worth mentioning. MLB Extra Innings is once again available on digital cable. At least MLB got this one right.

 

[Kmacc]

always enjoy the read Handy not much of interest tomorrow but will join w/ the Rangers on friday

 

[albyman32]

In regards to your thoughts on the Rangers... as one of the few die hard Rangers fans in existence, god I hope your right. Lord knows we need it. Some ugly baseball we played these first few games.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Dandy...We have same opinions on NBA. We are similar cappers.

GL w/ the MLB. I don't follow much baseball, and likely won't change that this season.

 

[SportsNut]

As many of you know I often talk about understand the line and what you think the oddsmakers are telling you. Well when I look at the lines they've posted on the Indians this week I get the impression they believe the Indians are going to be really good. When was the last time these White Sox pitchers got no respect at home vs. any team? I can't remember. The fact that Sowers is a pick vs. Buerhlre makes me believe the Indians are really good or the White Sox aren't. We will have to wait and see how this plays itself out but make a mental note that the bookmakers believe the Indians are going to be really good this year.

The Indians are certainly on the rise and WSox on decline thats clear even on paper. You look at the Sox SP and you have to scratch your head cause Contreras and Garland cant afford to be this awful cause there pen is so AWFUL . You could have 3 SP living off past seasons (in Contreras , Garland and Vazquez), a crafty LH in Buerhle and a revolving door in the 5 slot. Tribes pen isnt any better maybe worse but there SP should be better(Sabathia, Lee and Sowers all upside guys) and that lineup is full of upside where Sox have those vets who you know what your gonna get out of them and not more. Should see a decline here for Chicago..


Here is another interesting thing I picked up on the other day. I saw a series price for Det/Tor at -135 on the Tigers. Yes, Roy and AJ were going the first two games but that number tipped me off to thinking the books believe the Jays were likely to win this series. It seemed awfully short considering Verlander would be facing Chacin in the rubber game. Well somewhat to my surprise Verlander is only -135 or so. He didn't have a great spring but I don't trust Gustavo Chacin period. I just think this could be a buyer beware on the Tigers.

No doubt the Tigers will be a public bet here. However if you saw -135 series then why would u expect anything but that here?? First game with Halladay it was a couple pennies better then PK the 2nd game with Robertson was a couple pennies better then PK . So if the 1st two games were virtual PK or flat / even and the series was -135 seems logical game #3 would be -135...?? At least if you back track


How good are the Phillies going to be? I have no clue but I do think once again the book makers are telling us they think the Braves are a decent team given the lines they've put up the past couple days at Philly.

Almost the same deal as Tribe and Sox. Braves have very few holes more like unanswered questions(left side on the INF). They have 5 solid SP(maybe 6) and a very good pen on paper at least. They have a bunch of solid young players with high ceilings and the Jones boyz plus that former AS Renteria . Philly has injuries to the rotation with some guys getting more hype maybe then they deserve(Eaton , Garcia , Leiber , etc) and a bunch of leaks in the pen. The lineup has a few monsters and small trimmings...unbalanced team IMO....

good stuff and nice heads up with Boston..:cheers:

 

[frankiegotti]

i agree that the card is awful, only thing i like on thursday is the red sox, but that is only b/c of mats performance in spring training.

 

[handy]

Tread lightly with Boston tomorrow. Greinke isn't a bad pitcher and he's capable of making life difficult.


%$%@^@$$% - Japanese for good luck

 

[handy]

Reds -1.5 + big money might be worth a businessman's special to start the afternoon. This has all the makings of a high scoring affair.

It's hard to stomach the idea of putting my money on Kyle Lohse. That's my big hold up but I would rather lay half the money and lay 1.5 then lay juice and lose on Mrs. Lohse. I know the girls think he's cute. I think he sucks in baseball terms. He probably sucks in other ways too but I can't comment on that.

Friday lay the run and a half with Texas too. They're going to rip Wakefield apart like they always do in that park.