New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Handicapper Analysis
With his fastball, fork ball, sweeper, cutter combo, Kodai Senga starts for the Mets tonight.
His last, awful start against bottom-feeder Oakland notwithstanding, Senga has been having a good season.
But he's benefitted from facing a Marlin team, twice, that ranks 22ndin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, the Giants slug .612 against Senga's pitches from righties.
They rank first in this category by a significant margin, showing that this is a unique opportunity to back them.
On the other side, southpaw Sean Manaea starts for the Giants.
He matches up well against a Met lineup that slugs .348 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Giants First-Half ML at +100 with FanDuel
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Handicapper Analysis
The importance of climate in Arizona is easily understated.
It is very dry there, and some pitchers just don't like to pitch in that sort of climate.
Padres' starter Michael Wacha is one of those pitchers, at least in part because he relies to a meaningful extent on a cutter.
His poor career ERA in Chase Field speaks against him, as does the fact that he is a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
Arizona hits .284 and slugs .455 against fly ball-inducing pitchers, making Wacha a favorable matchup for them even no matter the location.
On the other side, San Diego ranks 23rdin slugging against Arizona starter Ryne Nelson's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks First-Half ML at +100 with FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Handicapper Analysis
This is a rematch of starters who just squared off against the same opposing lineup last week.
Michael Grove, for the Dodgers, was fortunate to give up one run in his 5.2 innings against the Cubs last week.
He benefitted from yielding a .091 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing hard contact over 40 percent of the time.
His 4.55 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he really pitched.
Cub starter Jameson Taillon is more reliable today because he is more well-built to face the same lineup consecutive times.
Taillon's huge mix of pitches -- he throws seven different ones -- makes it harder for hitters to grow familiar with him.
He also thrived twice in a row against the Blue Jays last year, for example.
Best Bet: Cubs First-Half ML at -128 with FanDuel
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Handicapper Analysis
Colorado suffers from negative team rhythm.
The Rockies have lost eight straight games, and all eight of those losses came by two or more runs.
Even if they weren't enduring negative team form, the Phillies match up well against them.
Their starter, Ryan Feltner, has looked particularly vulnerable this year with his slider, fastball, sinker, change-up, curveball combo.
Philadelphia's lineup has a positive outlook tonight because it ranks fifth in slugging against Feltner's pitches from righties.
On the other side, Matt Strahm has looked great, his last start in a difficult, hitters-friendly ballpark notwithstanding.
He's primed to thrive against a Rockie lineup notorious for hitting rather poorly outside of hitters-friendly Coors Field.
Best Bet: Phillies RL at -118 with FanDuel
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Handicapper Analysis
The odds for this game are all wrong because they don't account for match-up factors.
Both teams are starting lefties, and the extent to which each team is ready to face a lefty wildly differs.
L.A. is quite ready. The Angels rank third in slugging .500 against left-handed pitching.
They also match up well against Yankee starter Nestor Cortes' pitches from lefties.
On the other side, Patrick Sandoval brings his good form into Yankee Stadium.
The Angels' southpaw has yet to give up more than a run in a single start.
He'll continue thriving because the Yankees rank last in slugging .299 against lefties.
Best Bet: Angels First-Half ML at +114 with FanDuel
Handicapper Analysis
With his fastball, fork ball, sweeper, cutter combo, Kodai Senga starts for the Mets tonight.
His last, awful start against bottom-feeder Oakland notwithstanding, Senga has been having a good season.
But he's benefitted from facing a Marlin team, twice, that ranks 22ndin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, the Giants slug .612 against Senga's pitches from righties.
They rank first in this category by a significant margin, showing that this is a unique opportunity to back them.
On the other side, southpaw Sean Manaea starts for the Giants.
He matches up well against a Met lineup that slugs .348 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Giants First-Half ML at +100 with FanDuel
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Handicapper Analysis
The importance of climate in Arizona is easily understated.
It is very dry there, and some pitchers just don't like to pitch in that sort of climate.
Padres' starter Michael Wacha is one of those pitchers, at least in part because he relies to a meaningful extent on a cutter.
His poor career ERA in Chase Field speaks against him, as does the fact that he is a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
Arizona hits .284 and slugs .455 against fly ball-inducing pitchers, making Wacha a favorable matchup for them even no matter the location.
On the other side, San Diego ranks 23rdin slugging against Arizona starter Ryne Nelson's pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks First-Half ML at +100 with FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Handicapper Analysis
This is a rematch of starters who just squared off against the same opposing lineup last week.
Michael Grove, for the Dodgers, was fortunate to give up one run in his 5.2 innings against the Cubs last week.
He benefitted from yielding a .091 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing hard contact over 40 percent of the time.
His 4.55 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he really pitched.
Cub starter Jameson Taillon is more reliable today because he is more well-built to face the same lineup consecutive times.
Taillon's huge mix of pitches -- he throws seven different ones -- makes it harder for hitters to grow familiar with him.
He also thrived twice in a row against the Blue Jays last year, for example.
Best Bet: Cubs First-Half ML at -128 with FanDuel
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Handicapper Analysis
Colorado suffers from negative team rhythm.
The Rockies have lost eight straight games, and all eight of those losses came by two or more runs.
Even if they weren't enduring negative team form, the Phillies match up well against them.
Their starter, Ryan Feltner, has looked particularly vulnerable this year with his slider, fastball, sinker, change-up, curveball combo.
Philadelphia's lineup has a positive outlook tonight because it ranks fifth in slugging against Feltner's pitches from righties.
On the other side, Matt Strahm has looked great, his last start in a difficult, hitters-friendly ballpark notwithstanding.
He's primed to thrive against a Rockie lineup notorious for hitting rather poorly outside of hitters-friendly Coors Field.
Best Bet: Phillies RL at -118 with FanDuel
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Handicapper Analysis
The odds for this game are all wrong because they don't account for match-up factors.
Both teams are starting lefties, and the extent to which each team is ready to face a lefty wildly differs.
L.A. is quite ready. The Angels rank third in slugging .500 against left-handed pitching.
They also match up well against Yankee starter Nestor Cortes' pitches from lefties.
On the other side, Patrick Sandoval brings his good form into Yankee Stadium.
The Angels' southpaw has yet to give up more than a run in a single start.
He'll continue thriving because the Yankees rank last in slugging .299 against lefties.
Best Bet: Angels First-Half ML at +114 with FanDuel
