Spotting Upside for Thursday’s World Cup Prop Bets
Thursday’s betting slate features teams who delivered disappointing performances in their opener. Bettors can count on some of those players to bounce back and others to continue to underwhelm.
Thursday World Cup Prop Bets
Denmark - Australia (8 a.m. ET)
The Danes were rather fortunate to escape their opener against Peru with a victory. Offensively, they posed little threat, but benefited from a swift counterattack, in which their two stars in the attack, midfielder Christian Eriksen and striker Yussuf Poulsen, connected for the game’s only goal. They looked anything but effective for the vast portion of the game, but the fact that they could nevertheless connect for a goal speaks to their ability. Both showed strong form before the World Cup, each of them producing a goal in their June friendly against upstart Mexico.
In Denmark’s four 2018 friendlies, plus their opener, they took a while to find their way into the game and did not manage a goal in any of those first halves. Bettors can trust that Denmark continues this trend of not scoring in the first half against Australia. Even though Australia is an underdog, the first-half bet of Australia or underdog is too chalky for me. Australia did produce a goal against France, but that came on a penalty, which is an unreliable source of scoring. Australia is offensively challenged. Its most reliable scorer is likely Mathew Leckie, who produced all of five goals in his recent season for Germany club Hertha Berlin. You can bet on a 1H draw at +100 odds. Bet365 likewise offers the Draw & under 1.5 1H goals for +150.
It may seem impressive that Australia nearly achieved a draw against France. France was lackluster and Australia has an interesting history as major underdogs, achieving draws against Colombia in a March friendly, Chile and nearly Germany as well in 2017. But Australia frequently disappoints against non-elite competition, mustering a draw against the likes of Iraq and Thailand in Qualifiers and suffering 2-0 defeats to both Jordan and Japan. Australia, dating to 2014, has now suffered four consecutive World Cup defeats, conceding two or three goals in each of them. You can get Denmark -1, -1.5 at +230 odds. You can also get both Eriksen and Poulsen to score at +225 odds for each.
France - Peru (11 a.m. ET)
France suffered a very French-like beginning to its World Cup bid. In the 2016 Euros, the French didn’t muster a single first-half goal in each of their three Group Stage matches. This trend repeated itself in their opener against Australia until they managed two goals in the second half, one from a penalty and another from a fortunate own goal to clinch a 2-1 victory. In anticipation of another lackluster French start, you can get Peru 1H 0,0, +0.5 at +110 odds.
Peru’s defense showed its toughness in its opener, refusing to allow Denmark to break it down a single time while it took a counterattack for the Danes to score. Offensively, it’s a minor miracle that the Peruvians did not score in their opener against Denmark, considering that they managed 17 shots, six of them on goal. Peru is definitely capable of scoring and they might have in the opener if forward Paolo Guerrero had started—which he didn’t, following a 14-month ban due to ingesting a banned substance. He showed his good form, almost achieving the equalizing goal after he entered the game in the second half. Guerrero is Peru’s all-time leading scorer and emotional leader on the pitch. You can get him to score at a very valuable +350 odds.
Don’t count on Peru to squander so many chances again, while France boasts plenty of superstars that can help them score, among them Paul Pogba, whose shot induced the own-goal that gave France its decisive lead against Australia. You can get both teams to score at +100 odds and a total of two or three goals at -105.
Argentina - Croatia (2 p.m. ET)
Argentina is another top team that underwhelmed in its opener, mustering a 1-1 draw against heavy underdog Iceland. Argentina is frustrating, because they boast several stars who thrive on the club level, but repeatedly fail to live up to expectations in international play. This disappointment was evident in a 6-1 defeat in a recent Friendly against Spain, in which the Argentinians were not able to depend on Messi, who did not play. In their opener, Argentina depended on Messi to take 11 shots and a penalty, but he couldn’t score. He now hasn’t achieved a goal in over 20 of his last World Cup shots and Argentina is in serious trouble as long as this trend continues. Messi has missed four of his last seven penalties and you can bet on Argentina to miss a penalty at +1400 odds.
I also don’t trust the character of the Argentinians, several of whom decided to quit Argentina after losing the Copa America Final in 2016. But I do trust Croatia, which, unlike Argentina, played great as a team in its opener, cruising to a 2-0 victory against Nigeria. They boast some top players of there own, one of whom, midfielder Ivan Rakitic, is Messi’s teammate at Barcelona and could offer tips to his teammates on helping to stop the Argentinian superstar. You can bet on a draw or Croatia victory at -120 odds. Dating to the 2014 World Cup, the Croatians have produced multiple goals in six of their last seven Group Stage games. Defensively, it will be hard to shut out Argentina and you can bet on the over 2.0, 2.5 goals for -103 odds, Croatia and over 2.5 goals at +650 odds and a more modest both teams to score prop at -105 odds.
Thursday’s betting slate features teams who delivered disappointing performances in their opener. Bettors can count on some of those players to bounce back and others to continue to underwhelm.
Thursday World Cup Prop Bets
Denmark - Australia (8 a.m. ET)
The Danes were rather fortunate to escape their opener against Peru with a victory. Offensively, they posed little threat, but benefited from a swift counterattack, in which their two stars in the attack, midfielder Christian Eriksen and striker Yussuf Poulsen, connected for the game’s only goal. They looked anything but effective for the vast portion of the game, but the fact that they could nevertheless connect for a goal speaks to their ability. Both showed strong form before the World Cup, each of them producing a goal in their June friendly against upstart Mexico.
In Denmark’s four 2018 friendlies, plus their opener, they took a while to find their way into the game and did not manage a goal in any of those first halves. Bettors can trust that Denmark continues this trend of not scoring in the first half against Australia. Even though Australia is an underdog, the first-half bet of Australia or underdog is too chalky for me. Australia did produce a goal against France, but that came on a penalty, which is an unreliable source of scoring. Australia is offensively challenged. Its most reliable scorer is likely Mathew Leckie, who produced all of five goals in his recent season for Germany club Hertha Berlin. You can bet on a 1H draw at +100 odds. Bet365 likewise offers the Draw & under 1.5 1H goals for +150.
It may seem impressive that Australia nearly achieved a draw against France. France was lackluster and Australia has an interesting history as major underdogs, achieving draws against Colombia in a March friendly, Chile and nearly Germany as well in 2017. But Australia frequently disappoints against non-elite competition, mustering a draw against the likes of Iraq and Thailand in Qualifiers and suffering 2-0 defeats to both Jordan and Japan. Australia, dating to 2014, has now suffered four consecutive World Cup defeats, conceding two or three goals in each of them. You can get Denmark -1, -1.5 at +230 odds. You can also get both Eriksen and Poulsen to score at +225 odds for each.
France - Peru (11 a.m. ET)
France suffered a very French-like beginning to its World Cup bid. In the 2016 Euros, the French didn’t muster a single first-half goal in each of their three Group Stage matches. This trend repeated itself in their opener against Australia until they managed two goals in the second half, one from a penalty and another from a fortunate own goal to clinch a 2-1 victory. In anticipation of another lackluster French start, you can get Peru 1H 0,0, +0.5 at +110 odds.
Peru’s defense showed its toughness in its opener, refusing to allow Denmark to break it down a single time while it took a counterattack for the Danes to score. Offensively, it’s a minor miracle that the Peruvians did not score in their opener against Denmark, considering that they managed 17 shots, six of them on goal. Peru is definitely capable of scoring and they might have in the opener if forward Paolo Guerrero had started—which he didn’t, following a 14-month ban due to ingesting a banned substance. He showed his good form, almost achieving the equalizing goal after he entered the game in the second half. Guerrero is Peru’s all-time leading scorer and emotional leader on the pitch. You can get him to score at a very valuable +350 odds.
Don’t count on Peru to squander so many chances again, while France boasts plenty of superstars that can help them score, among them Paul Pogba, whose shot induced the own-goal that gave France its decisive lead against Australia. You can get both teams to score at +100 odds and a total of two or three goals at -105.
Argentina - Croatia (2 p.m. ET)
Argentina is another top team that underwhelmed in its opener, mustering a 1-1 draw against heavy underdog Iceland. Argentina is frustrating, because they boast several stars who thrive on the club level, but repeatedly fail to live up to expectations in international play. This disappointment was evident in a 6-1 defeat in a recent Friendly against Spain, in which the Argentinians were not able to depend on Messi, who did not play. In their opener, Argentina depended on Messi to take 11 shots and a penalty, but he couldn’t score. He now hasn’t achieved a goal in over 20 of his last World Cup shots and Argentina is in serious trouble as long as this trend continues. Messi has missed four of his last seven penalties and you can bet on Argentina to miss a penalty at +1400 odds.
I also don’t trust the character of the Argentinians, several of whom decided to quit Argentina after losing the Copa America Final in 2016. But I do trust Croatia, which, unlike Argentina, played great as a team in its opener, cruising to a 2-0 victory against Nigeria. They boast some top players of there own, one of whom, midfielder Ivan Rakitic, is Messi’s teammate at Barcelona and could offer tips to his teammates on helping to stop the Argentinian superstar. You can bet on a draw or Croatia victory at -120 odds. Dating to the 2014 World Cup, the Croatians have produced multiple goals in six of their last seven Group Stage games. Defensively, it will be hard to shut out Argentina and you can bet on the over 2.0, 2.5 goals for -103 odds, Croatia and over 2.5 goals at +650 odds and a more modest both teams to score prop at -105 odds.
