3 Player Props April 27: DJ LeMahieu Primed to Start Hitting Lefties
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, April 27, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Who Starts for the Twins?
Tyler Mahle starts for Minnesota.
Mahle's ERA seems to suggest that he has improved significantly relative to prior seasons.
But one has to thank his defense for much of the appearance of this improvement.
His current FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is a rather poor 4.40.
Part of the reason why it might be appealing to a batter to face Mahle is that his stuff isn't terribly extraordinary.
He features a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up together about 80 percent of his arsenal.
Compared to other fastballs, his fastball is rather subpar in terms of velocity.
Its spin is above-average, but that's apparently not good enough to prevent batters from hitting .263 and slugging .474 when he throws this pitch.
Because he throws his fastball over half the time, opposing batters will often see a pitch that is rather hittable.
More than his other pitches, Mahle's fastball is also responsible for his relative vulnerability to allowing home runs.
For the player prop bet that I am interested in for this game, we'll need a batter to get an extra-base hit, whether that's a home run, or a double, or a triple. Two singles will also suffice.
My Favorite Royals' Batter
The Royals' batter whom Kansas City will depend on most heavily today is Salvador Perez.
Perez got to rest up yesterday after achieving consecutive two-hit games.
He is already 2-for-6 with a homer in his career facing Mahle, and he slugs .447 against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Salvador Perez to record 2+ total bases at +115 with Bovada
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Thursday, April 27, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Who Starts for Texas?
Andrew Heaney starts for the Rangers today.
Heaney has strung together some strong starts, but let's not exaggerate his current success.
His last three starts came against the bottom-feeder Royals, the Astros, and Oakland with its abysmal lineup.
The Royals and A's both rank bottom-four in runs per game.
While shutting out the Astros seems impressive, Heaney benefitted from a .167 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Heaney's 4.14 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how poorly he actually performed.
After all, Heaney's stuff is certainly hittable.
He relies extensively on his fastball, which averages a paltry 91.7 mph.
While he throws this single pitch 65.1 percent of the time, he'll mix in a slider and changeup, although he basically never throws the latter pitch against a same-handed batter.
So, right-handed batters may expect to see Heaney's changeup in addition to his slider and fastball.
A three-pitch offering from a pitcher is not impressive. Batters will be likelier to figure him out because they face less variety from him.
DJ LeMahieu
My favorite Yankees' batter to thrive today is righty DJ LeMahieu.
One might wonder about his current hitting stats against left-handed pitching.
He has hardly faced lefty batters, so the current data sample pales in comparison to his career-long .312 BA and .449 slugging rate against lefties.
His current stats against lefties suggest that he is strongly due to hit them.
He is already 6-for-12 with a home run in his career facing Heaney.
Let's count on him to record at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: DJ LeMahieu to record 2+ total bases at +110 with Bovada
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Gerrit Cole tonight.
Cole has been amazing, for sure, but it's statistically very unlikely that he continues throughout this season with an ERA below 1.00.
Likewise, it is deeply improbable that he shuts out a third straight opponent.
At some point, quite probably tonight, he's going to give up some runs.
As a team, Texas matches up well against his pitches, and the Rangers also have multiple guys who have a strong track record against him.
With individual hitter prop bets in mind, the success of a team can be helpful against a single pitcher because it creates the situation where individual hitters get more at-bats in a given game.
When hitters get more at-bats, then they have more chances to get hits, which makes them more attractive prop bet candidates for us.
One feature of Cole's excellence is actually a feature that helps us out further.
Cole throws very hard. But, based on basic physics, it is likelier that Cole's harder pitches get met with correspondingly harder contact when the batter makes good contact with it.
A batter who is comfortable dealing with Cole's power is a good candidate to get an extra-base hit.
Adolis Garcia
Texas' Adolis Garcia has a strong outlook today given his track record against Cole.
Garcia is 4-for-9 with a home run in his career against Cole, showing with his home run the ability to do maximal damage to Cole.
Also because he enters today on a three-game hit streak, let's count on Garcia to record at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Adolis Garcia to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, April 27, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Who Starts for the Twins?
Tyler Mahle starts for Minnesota.
Mahle's ERA seems to suggest that he has improved significantly relative to prior seasons.
But one has to thank his defense for much of the appearance of this improvement.
His current FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is a rather poor 4.40.
Part of the reason why it might be appealing to a batter to face Mahle is that his stuff isn't terribly extraordinary.
He features a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up together about 80 percent of his arsenal.
Compared to other fastballs, his fastball is rather subpar in terms of velocity.
Its spin is above-average, but that's apparently not good enough to prevent batters from hitting .263 and slugging .474 when he throws this pitch.
Because he throws his fastball over half the time, opposing batters will often see a pitch that is rather hittable.
More than his other pitches, Mahle's fastball is also responsible for his relative vulnerability to allowing home runs.
For the player prop bet that I am interested in for this game, we'll need a batter to get an extra-base hit, whether that's a home run, or a double, or a triple. Two singles will also suffice.
My Favorite Royals' Batter
The Royals' batter whom Kansas City will depend on most heavily today is Salvador Perez.
Perez got to rest up yesterday after achieving consecutive two-hit games.
He is already 2-for-6 with a homer in his career facing Mahle, and he slugs .447 against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Salvador Perez to record 2+ total bases at +115 with Bovada
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Thursday, April 27, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Who Starts for Texas?
Andrew Heaney starts for the Rangers today.
Heaney has strung together some strong starts, but let's not exaggerate his current success.
His last three starts came against the bottom-feeder Royals, the Astros, and Oakland with its abysmal lineup.
The Royals and A's both rank bottom-four in runs per game.
While shutting out the Astros seems impressive, Heaney benefitted from a .167 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Heaney's 4.14 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how poorly he actually performed.
After all, Heaney's stuff is certainly hittable.
He relies extensively on his fastball, which averages a paltry 91.7 mph.
While he throws this single pitch 65.1 percent of the time, he'll mix in a slider and changeup, although he basically never throws the latter pitch against a same-handed batter.
So, right-handed batters may expect to see Heaney's changeup in addition to his slider and fastball.
A three-pitch offering from a pitcher is not impressive. Batters will be likelier to figure him out because they face less variety from him.
DJ LeMahieu
My favorite Yankees' batter to thrive today is righty DJ LeMahieu.
One might wonder about his current hitting stats against left-handed pitching.
He has hardly faced lefty batters, so the current data sample pales in comparison to his career-long .312 BA and .449 slugging rate against lefties.
His current stats against lefties suggest that he is strongly due to hit them.
He is already 6-for-12 with a home run in his career facing Heaney.
Let's count on him to record at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: DJ LeMahieu to record 2+ total bases at +110 with Bovada
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Gerrit Cole tonight.
Cole has been amazing, for sure, but it's statistically very unlikely that he continues throughout this season with an ERA below 1.00.
Likewise, it is deeply improbable that he shuts out a third straight opponent.
At some point, quite probably tonight, he's going to give up some runs.
As a team, Texas matches up well against his pitches, and the Rangers also have multiple guys who have a strong track record against him.
With individual hitter prop bets in mind, the success of a team can be helpful against a single pitcher because it creates the situation where individual hitters get more at-bats in a given game.
When hitters get more at-bats, then they have more chances to get hits, which makes them more attractive prop bet candidates for us.
One feature of Cole's excellence is actually a feature that helps us out further.
Cole throws very hard. But, based on basic physics, it is likelier that Cole's harder pitches get met with correspondingly harder contact when the batter makes good contact with it.
A batter who is comfortable dealing with Cole's power is a good candidate to get an extra-base hit.
Adolis Garcia
Texas' Adolis Garcia has a strong outlook today given his track record against Cole.
Garcia is 4-for-9 with a home run in his career against Cole, showing with his home run the ability to do maximal damage to Cole.
Also because he enters today on a three-game hit streak, let's count on Garcia to record at least an extra-base hit or two singles.
Best Bet: Adolis Garcia to record 2+ total bases at +120 with Bovada
