MLB Best Player Props April 13: Streaking Bryson Stott Remains Underrated
Bet Summary:Jonathan India to record 2+ total bases at -110;
Bryson Stott to record 2+ total bases at +185;
Tyler O'Neill to record 2+ total bases at +115;
Andrew McCutchen to record 2+ total bases at +140
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Bailey Falter starts for the Phillies tonight.
In his last start, Falter yielded one run in five innings against the Reds.
One might think that one shouldn't go against him today because he just, by all appearances, performed well against the Cincinnati team that he's about to face today.
But this thinking would be erroneous for two reasons.
One, he did not actually perform so well.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 5.21, indicating that his individual performance was rather weak.
In particular, he benefitted from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while struggling somewhat to generate soft contact.
Two, he is at the further disadvantage of having to face a lineup that just saw his stuff up close and personal.
Reds' batters will be more prepared for Falter today.
My Favorite Reds' Batter
Look out for Jonathan India, Cincinnati's second baseman who is having a good season with his .310 BA and .452 slugging rate.
Since he is having a good season, and based on what he has done in prior seasons, he should be hitting more lefties than he's currently doing.
The power is already there -- his slugging rate is .455 against them.
But his BA will also improve against them, as evident in what he did in prior seasons against them.
For the above reasons, let's attack the "player to record 2+ total bases" prop.
For this bet to hit, our player needs to get at least two singles, or a double, and so on.
Best Bet: Jonathan India to record 2+ total bases at -110 with Bovada
Philadelphia's Bryson Stott
Phillies' second baseman Bryson Stott is automatically worth trusting.
He has a hit in every game so far.
Plus, he has two hits in each of his last five games.
Stott benefits from facing Reds' starter Nick Lodolo after already doing so on April 8.
Thus, expect Stott to record at least two bases -- two singles, or a double, or a triple, or a home run will be enough for him to win the bet.
Oddsmakers are underrating him.
Best Bet: Bryson Stott to record 2+ total bases at +185 with Bovada
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Vince Velasquez starts for the Pirates.
He has had a rough start to his season, allowing three earned runs including two home runs in 4.2 innings at Cincinnati before allowing five earned runs in 2.2 innings in his last start against the White Sox.
My Favorite Cardinals' Batter
Let's find a Cardinals' hitter suited to take advantage of Velasquez's poor form.
While Paul Goldschmidt would work, there is tremendous value in the lesser known Tyler O'Neill.
O'Neill enjoys great form right now. He has at least one hit in four straight games.
Plus, he homered and had two hits in his last game.
Moreover, his track record against Velasquez is already extremely promising.
He is 3-for-4 with two homers with Velasquez on the mound.
Thus, let's attack the "player to record 2+ total bases" prop in the expectation that O'Neill gets us at least two singles, or a double, or a triple, or a home run.
Best Bet: Tyler O'Neill to record 2+ total bases at +115 with Bovada
Andrew McCutchen's Outlook
Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen is having a consistent and strong season so far.
He is batting .323 and slugging .484.
Today is a good spot for him because he is particularly reliable when coming off a hitless outing.
As recent years show, he is normally solid against left-handed pitching, particularly from a power perspective.
One extra-base hit from him is a reasonable ask.
Best Bet: Andrew McCutchen to record 2+ total bases at +140 with Bovada
Bet Summary:Jonathan India to record 2+ total bases at -110;
Bryson Stott to record 2+ total bases at +185;
Tyler O'Neill to record 2+ total bases at +115;
Andrew McCutchen to record 2+ total bases at +140
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Bailey Falter starts for the Phillies tonight.
In his last start, Falter yielded one run in five innings against the Reds.
One might think that one shouldn't go against him today because he just, by all appearances, performed well against the Cincinnati team that he's about to face today.
But this thinking would be erroneous for two reasons.
One, he did not actually perform so well.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 5.21, indicating that his individual performance was rather weak.
In particular, he benefitted from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while struggling somewhat to generate soft contact.
Two, he is at the further disadvantage of having to face a lineup that just saw his stuff up close and personal.
Reds' batters will be more prepared for Falter today.
My Favorite Reds' Batter
Look out for Jonathan India, Cincinnati's second baseman who is having a good season with his .310 BA and .452 slugging rate.
Since he is having a good season, and based on what he has done in prior seasons, he should be hitting more lefties than he's currently doing.
The power is already there -- his slugging rate is .455 against them.
But his BA will also improve against them, as evident in what he did in prior seasons against them.
For the above reasons, let's attack the "player to record 2+ total bases" prop.
For this bet to hit, our player needs to get at least two singles, or a double, and so on.
Best Bet: Jonathan India to record 2+ total bases at -110 with Bovada
Philadelphia's Bryson Stott
Phillies' second baseman Bryson Stott is automatically worth trusting.
He has a hit in every game so far.
Plus, he has two hits in each of his last five games.
Stott benefits from facing Reds' starter Nick Lodolo after already doing so on April 8.
Thus, expect Stott to record at least two bases -- two singles, or a double, or a triple, or a home run will be enough for him to win the bet.
Oddsmakers are underrating him.
Best Bet: Bryson Stott to record 2+ total bases at +185 with Bovada
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Vince Velasquez starts for the Pirates.
He has had a rough start to his season, allowing three earned runs including two home runs in 4.2 innings at Cincinnati before allowing five earned runs in 2.2 innings in his last start against the White Sox.
My Favorite Cardinals' Batter
Let's find a Cardinals' hitter suited to take advantage of Velasquez's poor form.
While Paul Goldschmidt would work, there is tremendous value in the lesser known Tyler O'Neill.
O'Neill enjoys great form right now. He has at least one hit in four straight games.
Plus, he homered and had two hits in his last game.
Moreover, his track record against Velasquez is already extremely promising.
He is 3-for-4 with two homers with Velasquez on the mound.
Thus, let's attack the "player to record 2+ total bases" prop in the expectation that O'Neill gets us at least two singles, or a double, or a triple, or a home run.
Best Bet: Tyler O'Neill to record 2+ total bases at +115 with Bovada
Andrew McCutchen's Outlook
Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen is having a consistent and strong season so far.
He is batting .323 and slugging .484.
Today is a good spot for him because he is particularly reliable when coming off a hitless outing.
As recent years show, he is normally solid against left-handed pitching, particularly from a power perspective.
One extra-base hit from him is a reasonable ask.
Best Bet: Andrew McCutchen to record 2+ total bases at +140 with Bovada
